SERIES: BAMLH0A0HYM2 (3.26)
VIXCLS (17.2)
INDPRO (103.9506)
UMCSENT (48.1)
CPIAUCSL (336.298)
CPILFESL (338.896)
DCOILWTICO (103.37)
MORTGAGE30US (7.24)
PCEPI (132.257)
ICSA (194000)
PAYEMS (159044)
UNRATE (4.2)
M2SL (23413.9)
NETLIQ (5745.73)
RRPONTSYD (4.375)
WALCL (6745635)
WTREGEN (999727)
DFII10 (2.63)
DGS10 (4.98)
DGS2 (4.61)
FEDFUNDS (3.75)
SOFR (3.94)
T10Y2Y (0.38)
FRED // PAYEMS
Total Nonfarm Payrolls Employment
LABOR Monthly
OBSERVATION DATE: 2026-09-01 • UNIT: Thousands
LATEST OBSERVATION
159044 Thousands
PRIOR / PERIOD Δ
159015 (+ 29.00)
YOY CHANGE
+ 0.31 Thousands
PAYEMS // Total Nonfarm Payrolls Employment (Thousands)1Y: +496.00 (+0.3%)
2026-09-01OBSERVATION: 159,044 (Thousands)
11 S&P 500 GICS SECTOR PEARSON CORRELATION MATRIX VS. PAYEMS SORTED TAILWIND (+r) ──► HEADWIND (-r)
| ETF | GICS SECTOR | PEARSON r | CORRELATION BAR (-1 TO +1) | R² | BETA / REGIME TRANSMISSION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLE | Energy | +0.07 r | | 0% | [+4.6% per +1% delta] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y PAYEMS cycle (258W) |
| XLP | Consumer Staples | -0.12 r | | 2% | [-4.58% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during PAYEMS upswings |
| XLF | Financials | -0.15 r | | 2% | [-7.32% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during PAYEMS upswings |
| XLU | Utilities | -0.15 r | | 2% | [-7.12% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during PAYEMS upswings |
| XLV | Health Care | -0.16 r | | 2% | [-6.13% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during PAYEMS upswings |
| XLRE | Real Estate | -0.16 r | | 3% | [-8.45% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during PAYEMS upswings |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary | -0.19 r | | 4% | [-11.61% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during PAYEMS upswings |
| XLI | Industrials | -0.21 r | | 4% | [-10% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during PAYEMS upswings |
| XLK | Technology | -0.21 r | | 5% | [-14.13% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during PAYEMS upswings |
| XLB | Materials | -0.22 r | | 5% | [-11.09% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during PAYEMS upswings |
| XLC | Communication Services | -0.25 r | | 6% | [-12.93% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during PAYEMS upswings |
AI MACRO REGIME IMPACT BRIEF RESTRICTIVE
Total Nonfarm Payrolls Employment (PAYEMS) Prints 159044 Thousands (Prior: 159015 Thousands)
Cross-asset regression across S&P 500 GICS sectors demonstrates significant factor dispersion to Total Nonfarm Payrolls Employment. Portfolio managers utilize PAYEMS inflections to rotate between short-duration cash-flow sectors and long-duration growth multiples.
▲ REGIME TAILWIND SECTORS
XLE // Energy
Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y PAYEMS cycle (258W) (Pearson r = +0.07, R² = 0%)
▼ REGIME HEADWIND SECTORS
XLC // Communication Services
Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during PAYEMS upswings (Pearson r = -0.25, R² = 6%)
XLB // Materials
Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during PAYEMS upswings (Pearson r = -0.22, R² = 5%)
XLK // Technology
Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during PAYEMS upswings (Pearson r = -0.21, R² = 5%)
HISTORICAL ANALOG // Comparable to 2022–2025 post-ZIRP monetary normalization where real-rate sensitivity dominated equity factor attribution.
EQUITIES MOST SENSITIVE TO PAYEMS STOCK BETA
| TICKER | LAST | % CHG | CORR (r) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA Technology | $213.66 | -0.80% | + 0.00 |
| AAPL Technology | $348.91 | +1.48% | + 0.00 |
| MSFT Technology | $530.14 | -0.16% | + 0.00 |
| GOOGL Communication Services | $283.82 | -12.64% | + 0.00 |
| GOOG Communication Services | $282.32 | -12.29% | + 0.00 |
| AMZN Consumer Discretionary | $243.79 | -4.25% | + 0.00 |
| TSM Technology | $431.81 | -1.75% | + 0.00 |
| SPCX Technology | $143.89 | -0.92% | + 0.00 |
| AVGO Technology | $345.00 | -1.94% | + 0.00 |
| META Communication Services | $624.52 | +1.96% | + 0.00 |