ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

MCY // Mercury General Corporation

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000064996 ↗
Financials • Property-Casualty Insurers
$103.73 ▲ +1.31 (+1.28%)
MKT CAP: $5.67B • VOL: 275.4K
MCY // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 73/100 [B] (-1 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B
RQD CONFIDENCE
72 / 100 -1D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF +4.8% vs NI +15.6% • ROIC-WACC +13.4% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
18 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +19.1% • P/E 9.8x • F-SCORE 6/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
14 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=-0.08 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.18
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ALERT

Why did MCY's Whale & Options Flow & Forensic 10-K Risk sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever MCY is Upgraded or Downgraded.

MCY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +8.63%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $102.7H $103.7L $102.4C $103.7VOL 142.0K
RES: $107.4SUP: $93.94SMA50: $102.1SMA200: $98.75
$115.0$107.0$98.99$91.00$83.00RES $107.4SUP $93.94$103.72026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
MCY // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 59/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Mercury General Corporation (MCY) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 22.4% return on invested capital within Financials (Property-Casualty Insurers), balanced against a 10.5x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into — operating margin and 22.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 22.4% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +9.4% paired with 19.12% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +9.4% // FCF YLD: 19.12%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 10.5x trailing P/E (9.8x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 10.5x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $103.73 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Property-Casualty Insurers require continuous execution to defend 9.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 9.0% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 9.8x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 10.5x
FORWARD P/E 9.8x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 19.12%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN —
NET MARGIN 9.0%
ROIC % 22.4%
REV GROWTH YOY +9.4%
DILUTED EPS TTM $9.77
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.24%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 49.7
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // MCYPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $94.92
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>