ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

MOH // Molina Healthcare Inc

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001179929 ↗
Health Care • Medical Specialities
$204.78 ▲ +5.83 (+2.93%)
MKT CAP: $10.39B • VOL: 1.75M
MOH // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 54/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
54 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF -120% vs NI -60% • ROIC-WACC +9.8% • Z 4.34
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 63% • VS 200D +7.6% • RSI 46.2
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=-0.08 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=+0.02
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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MOH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +4.73%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $198.1H $204.8L $198.1C $204.8VOL 635.7K
RES: $227.9SUP: $174.2SMA50: $200.6SMA200: $185.0
$251.4$224.4$197.4$170.4$143.4RES $227.9SUP $174.2$204.82026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
MOH // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 56/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Molina Healthcare Inc (MOH) exhibits 13.1% gross margins and 17.2% return on invested capital within Health Care (Medical Specialities), balanced against a 11.4x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 13.1% gross profitability converts into 1.7% operating margin and 17.2% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 17.2% // GM: 13.1%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +11.7% paired with -6.12% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +11.7% // FCF YLD: -6.12%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 4.34 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 4.34 // F-SCORE: 4/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 22.0x trailing P/E (20.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 22.0x // EV/EBITDA: 11.4x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $204.78 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Medical Specialities require continuous execution to defend 1.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 1.0% // D/E: 0.93x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 20.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.94).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 22.0x
FORWARD P/E 20.5x
EV / EBITDA 11.4x
FCF YIELD -6.12%
GROSS MARGIN 13.1%
OPERATING MARGIN 1.7%
NET MARGIN 1.0%
ROIC % 17.2%
REV GROWTH YOY +11.7%
DILUTED EPS TTM $9.04
DEBT / EQUITY 0.93x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 46.2
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.94
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // MOHPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $187.38
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>