ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

MTB // M&T Bank Corporation

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000036270 ↗
Financials • Major Banks
$224.43 ▲ +3.71 (+1.68%)
MKT CAP: $31.88B • VOL: 741.3K
MTB // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▼ DOWNGRADE // C (RQD 63) -> C- (RQD 60)
ROARABLE C-
RQD CONFIDENCE
60 / 100 -3D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF -17.3% vs NI +10.2% • ROIC-WACC -5.8% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 54% • VS 200D -2% • RSI 47.7
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
17 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +9.1% • P/E 10.6x • F-SCORE 8/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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MTB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +4.83%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $224.1H $224.4L $220.7C $224.4VOL 765.3K
RES: $229.0SUP: $203.6SMA50: $225.2SMA200: $225.2
$259.7$244.2$228.7$213.2$197.7RES $229.0SUP $203.6$224.42026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
MTB // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 45/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 3.4% return on invested capital within Financials (Major Banks), balanced against a 23.8x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 75.0% operating margin and 3.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 3.4% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +7.5% paired with 9.05% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +7.5% // FCF YLD: 9.05%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 11.4x trailing P/E (10.6x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 11.4x // EV/EBITDA: 23.8x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $224.43 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Major Banks require continuous execution to defend 68.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 68.0% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 10.6x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.11).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 11.4x
FORWARD P/E 10.6x
EV / EBITDA 23.8x
FCF YIELD 9.05%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 75.0%
NET MARGIN 68.0%
ROIC % 3.4%
REV GROWTH YOY +7.5%
DILUTED EPS TTM $19.74
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 2.78%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 47.7
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.11
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // MTBPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $205.36
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>