ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

MUR // Murphy Oil Corporation

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000717423 ↗
Energy • Oil & Gas Production
$40.16 ▼ -3.79 (-8.62%)
MKT CAP: $6.30B • VOL: 2.21M
MUR // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 52/100 [D+] (+1 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
53 / 100 +1D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
9 / 20
WARNING
FCF -74.4% vs NI -74.4% • ROIC-WACC -4.9% • Z 2.1
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
18 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 94% • VS 200D +18.7% • RSI 64.1
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.22 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.22
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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MUR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.72%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $42.84H $43.95L $40.16C $40.16VOL 1.41M
RES: $45.62SUP: $37.98SMA50: $39.11SMA200: $37.02
$46.01$41.96$37.91$33.86$29.81RES $45.62SUP $37.98$40.162026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
MUR // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) exhibits 96.0% gross margins and 3.6% return on invested capital within Energy (Oil & Gas Production), balanced against a 19.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 96.0% gross profitability converts into 11.2% operating margin and 3.6% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 3.6% // GM: 96.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -10.9% paired with -0.04% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -10.9% // FCF YLD: -0.04%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.10 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.10 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 58.9x trailing P/E (54.8x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 58.9x // EV/EBITDA: 19.0x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $40.16 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Oil & Gas Production require continuous execution to defend 3.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 3.9% // D/E: 0.38x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 54.8x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.98).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 58.9x
FORWARD P/E 54.8x
EV / EBITDA 19.0x
FCF YIELD -0.04%
GROSS MARGIN 96.0%
OPERATING MARGIN 11.2%
NET MARGIN 3.9%
ROIC % 3.6%
REV GROWTH YOY -10.9%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.73
DEBT / EQUITY 0.38x
DIVIDEND YIELD 3.03%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 64.1
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.98
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // MURPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $36.75
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>