ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

NXST // Nexstar Media Group Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001142417 ↗
Communication Services • Broadcasting
$171.44 ▲ +1.34 (+0.79%)
MKT CAP: $5.28B • VOL: 278.6K
NXST // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 45/100 [D] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
45 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
13 / 20
SOLID
FCF -32.8% vs NI -87.8% • ROIC-WACC +2.2% • Z 1.61
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
9 / 20
WARNING
52W RANGE 18% • VS 200D -10.6% • RSI 58.6
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
6 / 20
CRITICAL
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=-0.03 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.25
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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NXST // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.93%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $170.1H $171.4L $170.1C $171.4VOL 278.6K
RES: $183.4SUP: $142.5SMA50: $167.0SMA200: $191.7
$219.7$201.7$183.6$165.6$147.6RES $183.4SUP $142.5$171.42026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
NXST // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 30/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Nexstar Media Group Inc. (NXST) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 8.4% return on invested capital within Communication Services (Broadcasting), balanced against a 11.5x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 17.2% operating margin and 8.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 8.4% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -8.5% paired with 14.18% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -8.5% // FCF YLD: 14.18%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.61 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.61 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 63.1x trailing P/E (58.7x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 63.1x // EV/EBITDA: 11.5x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $171.44 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Broadcasting require continuous execution to defend 1.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 1.7% // D/E: 3.01x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 58.7x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.99).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 63.1x
FORWARD P/E 58.7x
EV / EBITDA 11.5x
FCF YIELD 14.18%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 17.2%
NET MARGIN 1.7%
ROIC % 8.4%
REV GROWTH YOY -8.5%
DILUTED EPS TTM $2.69
DEBT / EQUITY 3.01x
DIVIDEND YIELD 4.31%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 58.6
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.99
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // NXSTPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $156.87
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>