OCTV // Octave Intelligence plc (Class B)

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0002083632 ↗

Technology • Computer Software: Prepackaged Software

$21.71 ▼ -0.03 (-0.14%)

MKT CAP: $5.83B • VOL: 1.15M

52W L $15 52W H $30

OCTV // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE

▲ UPGRADE // D+ (RQD 53) -> C- (RQD 61) AS OF 2026-11-03

ROARABLE C-

RQD CONFIDENCE

61 / 100 +8D

5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS

E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+

Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral

01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL

Forensic Fundamentals

10 / 20

NEUTRAL

FCF +0% vs NI +0% • ROIC-WACC +0.8% • Z 3.2

02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND

Whale & Options Flow

14 / 20

SOLID

52W RANGE 43% • VS 200D +15.7% • RSI 62.7

03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION

Insider & Capital Conviction

[LOCKED] FLAGGED

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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX

Macro Regime Fit

15 / 20

SOLID

TAILWIND • r(10Y)=-0.03 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.10

05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT

Forensic 10-K Risk

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ALERT

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SIG <GO> CROSS-FEED TRIANGULATION // PROPRIETARY ANOMALY ENGINE (1 ACTIVE ON OCTV)

STAGE 2 DETERMINISTIC Z-SCORE + STAGE 3 GEEK DESK BRIEF ALL MARKET ANOMALIES <SIG>

▲ BULLISH // MACRO TAILWIND SCORE (96/100)SIFTER 05 // TRUE NET LIQUIDITY BETA

SEVERITY: 94/100 Z-SCORE: +6.01σ

OCTV Exhibits 6.00x True Net Liquidity Elasticity as Fed-TGA-RRP Prints $5,746B

TRUE NET LIQUIDITY

$5,746B (-0.64% 4W)

NET LIQUIDITY ELASTICITY

6.00x BETA (r=-0.50)

MACRO TAILWIND SCORE

96 / 100

[GEEK DESK FORENSIC NOTE // FRED WALCL - TGA - RRP × 5Y BETA]

FRED Fed Assets (WALCL)US Treasury TGA (WTREGEN) + ON RRPICE BofA High-Yield OAS + 5Y Equity Beta

Wall Street's True Net Liquidity Index (WALCL minus Treasury General Account WTREGEN minus Overnight RRP) stands at $5,745.73B (-0.64% 4-week RoC; High-Yield OAS +34 bps). Rolling 5-year regression assigns Octave Intelligence plc (Class B) (OCTV) a 6.00x Net Liquidity beta (r = -0.50), placing it in the top decile of liquidity-sensitive equities. Current plumbing translates to a deterministic Macro Tailwind Score of 96/100.

OCTV // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.14%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-03O $21.74H $21.74L $21.71C $21.71VOL 1.15M

RES: $22.33SUP: $18.86SMA50: $19.74SMA200: $18.77

OCTV // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE

NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 52/100

BEAR 0

100 BULL

Octave Intelligence plc (Class B) (OCTV) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 14.0% return on invested capital within Technology (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)

01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into — operating margin and 14.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 14.0% // GM: 45.0%

02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of — paired with 2.80% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: — // FCF YLD: 2.80%

03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 7/9

▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)

01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —

02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $21.71 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85

03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software require continuous execution to defend — net margins.

NET MARGIN: — // D/E: 0.00x

KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.

MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).

FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>

FILER	SIDE	$ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>

UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>

STRIKE / EXP	TYPE	PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>

KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>

TRAILING P/E —

FORWARD P/E —

EV / EBITDA —

FCF YIELD —

GROSS MARGIN —

OPERATING MARGIN —

NET MARGIN —

ROIC % —

REV GROWTH YOY —

DILUTED EPS TTM —

DEBT / EQUITY 0.00x

DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%

RSI-14 MOMENTUM 62.7

5Y EQUITY BETA —

FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>

MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.

FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // OCTVPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE

01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO

02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE

HEADLINE STRESS SCORE

75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE

PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE

DFII10 // -0.61 r

Latest: 2.08%

EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE

-8.50%

Implied Px: $19.87

EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE

-$4,248

On $50,000 Notional

[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for OCTV & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

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