ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

PEN // Penumbra Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001321732 ↗
Health Care • Medical/Dental Instruments
$318.95 ▼ -3.02 (-0.94%)
MKT CAP: $12.68B • VOL: 497.8K
PEN // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 57/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
57 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
13 / 20
SOLID
FCF +18.8% vs NI +200% • ROIC-WACC +1.6% • Z 21.05
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 71% • VS 200D -1.6% • RSI 51.9
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=-0.04 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.15
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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PEN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.76%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $318.3H $322.0L $318.3C $319.0VOL 672.9K
RES: $325.2SUP: $316.4SMA50: $320.4SMA200: $327.2
$336.4$325.3$314.3$303.3$292.3RES $325.2SUP $316.4$319.02026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PEN // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 42/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Penumbra Inc. (PEN) exhibits 67.1% gross margins and 10.6% return on invested capital within Health Care (Medical/Dental Instruments), balanced against a 52.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 67.1% gross profitability converts into 13.5% operating margin and 10.6% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 10.6% // GM: 67.1%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +17.5% paired with 1.38% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +17.5% // FCF YLD: 1.38%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 21.05 and Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 21.05 // F-SCORE: 9/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 71.4x trailing P/E (60.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 71.4x // EV/EBITDA: 52.0x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $318.95 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Medical/Dental Instruments require continuous execution to defend 12.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 12.7% // D/E: 0.12x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 60.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.91).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 71.4x
FORWARD P/E 60.0x
EV / EBITDA 52.0x
FCF YIELD 1.38%
GROSS MARGIN 67.1%
OPERATING MARGIN 13.5%
NET MARGIN 12.7%
ROIC % 10.6%
REV GROWTH YOY +17.5%
DILUTED EPS TTM $4.51
DEBT / EQUITY 0.12x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 51.9
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.91
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // PENPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $291.85
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>