ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

PYPL // PayPal Holdings Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001633917 ↗
Industrials • Diversified Commercial Services
$57.01 ▲ +0.06 (+0.11%)
MKT CAP: $47.36B • VOL: 15.36M
PYPL // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 74/100 [B] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B
RQD CONFIDENCE
74 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
17 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 62% • VS 200D +14.1% • RSI 56.9
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
18 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +11.8% • P/E 8.4x • F-SCORE 9/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
13 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=-0.04 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.31
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ALERT

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PYPL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +13.14%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $56.95H $57.01L $56.95C $57.01VOL 15.36M
RES: $56.84SUP: $55.23SMA50: $55.07SMA200: $49.98
$64.31$57.77$51.24$44.71$38.17RES $56.84SUP $55.23$57.012026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PYPL // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 56/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

PayPal Holdings Inc. (PYPL) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 21.6% return on invested capital within Industrials (Diversified Commercial Services), balanced against a 7.3x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 18.3% operating margin and 21.6% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 21.6% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +4.3% paired with 11.76% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +4.3% // FCF YLD: 11.76%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.90 and Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.90 // F-SCORE: 9/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 9.0x trailing P/E (8.4x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 9.0x // EV/EBITDA: 7.3x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $57.01 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Diversified Commercial Services require continuous execution to defend 15.8% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 15.8% // D/E: 0.49x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 8.4x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.93).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 9.0x
FORWARD P/E 8.4x
EV / EBITDA 7.3x
FCF YIELD 11.76%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 18.3%
NET MARGIN 15.8%
ROIC % 21.6%
REV GROWTH YOY +4.3%
DILUTED EPS TTM $6.30
DEBT / EQUITY 0.49x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.27%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 56.9
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.93
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // PYPLPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $52.17
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>