ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

RJET // Republic Airways Holdings Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000810332 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Air Freight/Delivery Services
$19.32 ▼ -0.65 (-3.25%)
MKT CAP: $904.6M • VOL: 63.9K
RJET // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 48/100 [D] (-2 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
46 / 100 -2D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 35% • VS 200D +2.5% • RSI 60.6
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
9 / 20
WARNING
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=-0.02 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.13
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
20 BASE - 10 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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RJET // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +3.32%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $19.97H $19.97L $19.32C $19.32VOL 63.9K
RES: $20.53SUP: $15.10SMA50: $17.75SMA200: $18.84
$27.47$24.27$21.07$17.87$14.67RES $20.53SUP $15.10$19.322026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
RJET // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 54/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 11.1% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Air Freight/Delivery Services), balanced against a 12.3x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 12.5% operating margin and 11.1% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 11.1% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +15.5% paired with -8.01% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +15.5% // FCF YLD: -8.01%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.16 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.16 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 12.3x trailing P/E (10.3x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 12.3x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $19.32 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Air Freight/Delivery Services require continuous execution to defend 5.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 5.7% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 10.3x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 12.3x
FORWARD P/E 10.3x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD -8.01%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 12.5%
NET MARGIN 5.7%
ROIC % 11.1%
REV GROWTH YOY +15.5%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.63
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 60.6
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // RJETPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $17.68
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for RJET & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>