ROARABLE // PRO
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SIGI // Selective Insurance Group Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000230557 ↗
Financials • Property-Casualty Insurers
$100.76 ▲ +1.93 (+1.95%)
MKT CAP: $5.83B • VOL: 634.1K
SIGI // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 75/100 [B] (-1 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B
RQD CONFIDENCE
74 / 100 -1D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
16 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 91% • VS 200D +12.5% • RSI 73
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
17 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +20.4% • P/E 11.7x • F-SCORE 8/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
14 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=-0.05 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.12
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ALERT

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SIGI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +24.58%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $99.32H $100.8L $98.83C $100.8VOL 394.7K
RES: $102.8SUP: $78.56SMA50: $90.04SMA200: $87.83
$102.8$96.48$90.20$83.92$77.64RES $102.8SUP $78.56$100.82026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
SIGI // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 48/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Selective Insurance Group Inc. (SIGI) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 6.8% return on invested capital within Financials (Property-Casualty Insurers), balanced against a 14.8x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 10.7% operating margin and 6.8% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 6.8% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +9.8% paired with 20.38% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +9.8% // FCF YLD: 20.38%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 12.6x trailing P/E (11.7x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 12.6x // EV/EBITDA: 14.8x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $100.76 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Property-Casualty Insurers require continuous execution to defend 8.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 8.7% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 11.7x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.16).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 12.6x
FORWARD P/E 11.7x
EV / EBITDA 14.8x
FCF YIELD 20.38%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 10.7%
NET MARGIN 8.7%
ROIC % 6.8%
REV GROWTH YOY +9.8%
DILUTED EPS TTM $7.91
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.59%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 73.0
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.16
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // SIGIPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $92.20
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>