ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

SJM // The J.M. Smucker Company

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000091419 ↗
Consumer Staples • Packaged Foods
$129.90 ▲ +3.64 (+2.88%)
MKT CAP: $13.49B • VOL: 1.70M
SJM // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 55/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
55 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
8 / 20
WARNING
FCF +41.6% vs NI +88.7% • ROIC-WACC -4.6% • Z 1.3
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
14 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 80% • VS 200D +13.3% • RSI 52.2
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
13 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=-0.15 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.00
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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SJM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +34.04%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL
2026-11-02O $125.5H $129.9L $125.5C $129.9VOL 709.9K
RES: $133.7SUP: $118.3SMA50: $124.3SMA200: $111.4
$138.7$126.9$115.1$103.2$91.36RES $133.7SUP $118.3$129.92026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
SJM // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 39/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) exhibits 33.5% gross margins and 2.8% return on invested capital within Consumer Staples (Packaged Foods), balanced against a 29.2x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 33.5% gross profitability converts into 4.0% operating margin and 2.8% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 2.8% // GM: 33.5%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -3.3% paired with 8.57% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -3.3% // FCF YLD: 8.57%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.30 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.30 // F-SCORE: 4/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (34.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: 29.2x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $129.90 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Packaged Foods require continuous execution to defend -1.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -1.5% // D/E: 1.31x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 34.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E 34.0x
EV / EBITDA 29.2x
FCF YIELD 8.57%
GROSS MARGIN 33.5%
OPERATING MARGIN 4.0%
NET MARGIN -1.5%
ROIC % 2.8%
REV GROWTH YOY -3.3%
DILUTED EPS TTM $-1.30
DEBT / EQUITY 1.31x
DIVIDEND YIELD 3.45%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 52.2
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.10
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // SJMPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $118.86
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>