ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

SM // SM Energy Company

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000893538 ↗
Energy • Oil & Gas Production
$37.44 ▼ -2.94 (-7.28%)
MKT CAP: $9.60B • VOL: 3.81M
SM // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 82/100 [A-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE A-
RQD CONFIDENCE
82 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Superior Risk/Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF +12.5% vs NI -15.8% • ROIC-WACC +4.2% • Z 2.42
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
17 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 95% • VS 200D +31.7% • RSI 62.1
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] OUTLIER
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
18 / 20
STRONG
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.28 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.25
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] OUTLIER
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
SIGNAL

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SM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +19.31%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $39.58H $40.38L $37.44C $37.44VOL 2.61M
RES: $48.72SUP: $35.61SMA50: $37.35SMA200: $30.66
$42.80$37.66$32.51$27.36$22.21RES $48.72SUP $35.61$37.442026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
SM // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 56/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

SM Energy Company (SM) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 12.5% return on invested capital within Energy (Oil & Gas Production), balanced against a 9.7x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 31.7% operating margin and 12.5% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 12.5% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +17.2% paired with 19.85% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +17.2% // FCF YLD: 19.85%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.42 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.42 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 14.5x trailing P/E (12.2x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 14.5x // EV/EBITDA: 9.7x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $37.44 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Oil & Gas Production require continuous execution to defend 20.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 20.5% // D/E: 0.39x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 12.2x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.94).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 14.5x
FORWARD P/E 12.2x
EV / EBITDA 9.7x
FCF YIELD 19.85%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 31.7%
NET MARGIN 20.5%
ROIC % 12.5%
REV GROWTH YOY +17.2%
DILUTED EPS TTM $2.72
DEBT / EQUITY 0.39x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.98%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 62.1
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.94
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // SMPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $34.26
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for SM & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>