ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

TAP // Molson Coors Beverage Company

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000024545 ↗
Consumer Staples • Beverages (Production/Distribution)
$43.23 ▲ +3.11 (+7.75%)
MKT CAP: $7.48B • VOL: 7.10M
TAP // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 45/100 [D] (+4 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
49 / 100 +4D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
9 / 20
WARNING
FCF -7.3% vs NI -120% • ROIC-WACC -22.5% • Z 0.82
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 24% • VS 200D -5.1% • RSI 56
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=-0.20 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=+0.04
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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TAP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.14%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $39.21H $43.23L $39.21C $43.23VOL 3.27M
RES: $45.53SUP: $34.66SMA50: $38.78SMA200: $42.26
$47.89$44.54$41.18$37.83$34.48RES $45.53SUP $34.66$43.232026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
TAP // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP) exhibits 32.8% gross margins and -14.0% return on invested capital within Consumer Staples (Beverages (Production/Distribution)), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 32.8% gross profitability converts into -17.9% operating margin and -14.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -14.0% // GM: 32.8%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -5.1% paired with 16.38% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -5.1% // FCF YLD: 16.38%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.82 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.82 // F-SCORE: 4/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (23.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $43.23 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Beverages (Production/Distribution) require continuous execution to defend -16.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -16.4% // D/E: 0.38x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 23.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.97).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E 23.0x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 16.38%
GROSS MARGIN 32.8%
OPERATING MARGIN -17.9%
NET MARGIN -16.4%
ROIC % -14.0%
REV GROWTH YOY -5.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM $-11.48
DEBT / EQUITY 0.38x
DIVIDEND YIELD 5.15%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 56.0
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.97
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // TAPPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $39.56
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>