ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

TMC // TMC the metals company Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001798562 ↗
Materials • Metal Mining
$2.60 ▼ -0.24 (-8.45%)
MKT CAP: $1.25B • VOL: 3.57M
TMC // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▼ DOWNGRADE // D (RQD 45) -> E (RQD 29)
ROARABLE E
RQD CONFIDENCE
29 / 100 -16D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
8 / 20
WARNING
FCF +2% vs NI -120% • ROIC-WACC -43.6% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
3 / 20
CRITICAL
52W RANGE 6% • VS 200D -41.7% • RSI 44.2
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
5 / 20
CRITICAL
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=-0.11 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.20
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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TMC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -49.90%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $2.80H $2.84L $2.60C $2.60VOL 5.25M
RES: $4.45SUP: $2.25SMA50: $3.65SMA200: $4.87
$6.94$5.69$4.45$3.20$1.95RES $4.45SUP $2.25$2.602026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
TMC // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and -35.0% return on invested capital within Materials (Metal Mining), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into — operating margin and -35.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -35.0% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of — paired with -3.44% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: — // FCF YLD: -3.44%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 2/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $2.60 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Metal Mining require continuous execution to defend — net margins.

NET MARGIN: — // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD -3.44%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN —
NET MARGIN —
ROIC % -35.0%
REV GROWTH YOY —
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 44.2
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // TMCPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $2.38
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>