ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

TWIN // Twin Disc Incorporated

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000100378 ↗
Industrials • Industrial Machinery/Components
$24.75 ▲ +0.77 (+3.21%)
MKT CAP: $348.6M • VOL: 77.3K
TWIN // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▼ DOWNGRADE // C- (RQD 60) -> D+ (RQD 56)
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
56 / 100 -4D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
13 / 20
SOLID
FCF -64.7% vs NI -117.2% • ROIC-WACC -5.3% • Z 3.13
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=-0.06 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.28
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
14 / 20
SOLID
20 BASE - 6 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did TWIN's Whale & Options Flow & Insider & Capital Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever TWIN is Upgraded or Downgraded.

TWIN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +64.67%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $25.29H $25.29L $23.98C $24.75VOL 52.5K
RES: $31.32SUP: $23.21SMA50: $25.12SMA200: $20.57
$30.26$26.03$21.79$17.56$13.33RES $31.32SUP $23.21$24.752026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
TWIN // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 49/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Twin Disc Incorporated (TWIN) exhibits 27.6% gross margins and 3.9% return on invested capital within Industrials (Industrial Machinery/Components), balanced against a 17.1x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 27.6% gross profitability converts into 3.3% operating margin and 3.9% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 3.9% // GM: 27.6%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +15.5% paired with 2.40% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +15.5% // FCF YLD: 2.40%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.13 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.13 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: 17.1x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $24.75 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Industrial Machinery/Components require continuous execution to defend -0.6% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -0.6% // D/E: 0.22x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA 17.1x
FCF YIELD 2.40%
GROSS MARGIN 27.6%
OPERATING MARGIN 3.3%
NET MARGIN -0.6%
ROIC % 3.9%
REV GROWTH YOY +15.5%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY 0.22x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.62%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 43.2
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // TWINPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $22.65
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for TWIN & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>