ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

TWLO // Twilio Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001447669 ↗
Technology • Computer Software: Prepackaged Software
$207.60 ▲ +2.57 (+1.25%)
MKT CAP: $31.49B • VOL: 4.40M
TWLO // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▼ DOWNGRADE // C (RQD 64) -> C- (RQD 61)
ROARABLE C-
RQD CONFIDENCE
61 / 100 -3D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF +50.3% vs NI +131.2% • ROIC-WACC -8.6% • Z 11.14
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.05 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.28
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
18 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 2 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did TWLO's Insider & Capital Conviction & Whale & Options Flow sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever TWLO is Upgraded or Downgraded.

TWLO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +9.45%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $241.9H $241.9L $205.0C $207.6VOL 7.35M
RES: $325.7SUP: $180.0SMA50: $257.0SMA200: $190.4
$321.4$267.4$213.4$159.4$105.4RES $325.7SUP $180.0$207.62026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
TWLO // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 47/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Twilio Inc. (TWLO) exhibits 48.9% gross margins and 1.6% return on invested capital within Technology (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), balanced against a 95.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 48.9% gross profitability converts into 3.1% operating margin and 1.6% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 1.6% // GM: 48.9%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +13.7% paired with 2.09% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +13.7% // FCF YLD: 2.09%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 11.14 and Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 11.14 // F-SCORE: 9/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: 95.0x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $207.60 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software require continuous execution to defend 0.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 0.7% // D/E: 0.10x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.16).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA 95.0x
FCF YIELD 2.09%
GROSS MARGIN 48.9%
OPERATING MARGIN 3.1%
NET MARGIN 0.7%
ROIC % 1.6%
REV GROWTH YOY +13.7%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY 0.10x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 36.2
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.16
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // TWLOPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $189.96
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for TWLO & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>