ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

ULTA // Ulta Beauty Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001403568 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Other Specialty Stores
$640.43 ▼ -7.85 (-1.21%)
MKT CAP: $27.38B • VOL: 548.2K
ULTA // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 84/100 [A-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE A-
RQD CONFIDENCE
84 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Superior Risk/Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
19 / 20
STRONG
FCF +10.8% vs NI -4% • ROIC-WACC +20.9% • Z 6.96
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
18 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 73% • VS 200D +15.9% • RSI 65.8
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
18 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 2 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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ULTA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +23.64%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $648.3H $648.3L $640.4C $640.4VOL 548.2K
RES: $664.2SUP: $577.1SMA50: $571.6SMA200: $552.6
$674.6$612.0$549.4$486.8$424.2RES $664.2SUP $577.1$640.42026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
ULTA // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 64/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA) exhibits 39.1% gross margins and 29.2% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Other Specialty Stores), balanced against a 15.3x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 39.1% gross profitability converts into 12.4% operating margin and 29.2% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 29.2% // GM: 39.1%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +9.7% paired with 3.85% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +9.7% // FCF YLD: 3.85%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 6.96 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 6.96 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (22.3x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: 15.3x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $640.43 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Other Specialty Stores require continuous execution to defend 9.3% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 9.3% // D/E: 0.63x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 22.3x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 24.0x
FORWARD P/E 22.3x
EV / EBITDA 15.3x
FCF YIELD 3.85%
GROSS MARGIN 39.1%
OPERATING MARGIN 12.4%
NET MARGIN 9.3%
ROIC % 29.2%
REV GROWTH YOY +9.7%
DILUTED EPS TTM $26.97
DEBT / EQUITY 0.63x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 65.8
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.10
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ULTAPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $586.01
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>