ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

W // Wayfair Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001616707 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Catalog/Specialty Distribution
$115.91 ▼ -4.21 (-3.50%)
MKT CAP: $16.45B • VOL: 2.20M
W // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 61/100 [C-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C-
RQD CONFIDENCE
61 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
13 / 20
SOLID
FCF +90.2% vs NI +36.4% • ROIC-WACC -6.8% • Z 3.22
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
19 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 99% • VS 200D +35.4% • RSI 66.1
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
20 BASE - 8 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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W // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +78.74%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $114.0H $120.1L $114.0C $115.9VOL 3.33M
RES: $121.0SUP: $102.9SMA50: $105.5SMA200: $88.70
$125.5$106.5$87.60$68.66$49.72RES $121.0SUP $102.9$115.92026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
W // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 42/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Wayfair Inc. (W) exhibits 30.2% gross margins and 1.0% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Catalog/Specialty Distribution), balanced against a 95.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 30.2% gross profitability converts into 0.1% operating margin and 1.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 1.0% // GM: 30.2%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +5.1% paired with 2.82% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +5.1% // FCF YLD: 2.82%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.22 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.22 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (34.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: 95.0x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $115.91 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Catalog/Specialty Distribution require continuous execution to defend -2.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -2.5% // D/E: 0.85x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 34.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.05).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E 34.0x
EV / EBITDA 95.0x
FCF YIELD 2.82%
GROSS MARGIN 30.2%
OPERATING MARGIN 0.1%
NET MARGIN -2.5%
ROIC % 1.0%
REV GROWTH YOY +5.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM $-2.29
DEBT / EQUITY 0.85x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 66.1
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.05
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // WPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $106.06
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>