ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

XGN // Exagen Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001274737 ↗
Health Care • Medical Specialities
$8.59 ▼ -0.11 (-1.26%)
MKT CAP: $208.1M • VOL: 394.0K
XGN // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▲ UPGRADE // E (RQD 31) -> D- (RQD 36)
ROARABLE D-
RQD CONFIDENCE
36 / 100 +5D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
4 / 20
CRITICAL
FCF -3.4% vs NI -32% • ROIC-WACC -42.3% • Z 0.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
14 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 65% • VS 200D +72.3% • RSI 59.9
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
7 / 20
WARNING
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=-0.09 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.25
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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XGN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +177.10%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $8.70H $8.70L $8.59C $8.59VOL 394.0K
RES: $10.17SUP: $6.26SMA50: $7.96SMA200: $5.06
$9.67$7.81$5.96$4.10$2.24RES $10.17SUP $6.26$8.592026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
XGN // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Exagen Inc. (XGN) exhibits 58.3% gross margins and -35.0% return on invested capital within Health Care (Medical Specialities), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 58.3% gross profitability converts into -21.1% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -35.0% // GM: 58.3%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +19.7% paired with -6.77% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +19.7% // FCF YLD: -6.77%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.20 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.20 // F-SCORE: 4/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $8.59 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Medical Specialities require continuous execution to defend -30.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -30.0% // D/E: 1.28x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD -6.77%
GROSS MARGIN 58.3%
OPERATING MARGIN -21.1%
NET MARGIN -30.0%
ROIC % -35.0%
REV GROWTH YOY +19.7%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY 1.28x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 58.0
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // XGNPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $7.86
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>