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American Realty Investors Inc. (ARL) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$19.10 +3.52% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.18

American Realty Investors Inc. (ARL) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 38/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $298.0M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ARL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ARL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, American Realty Investors Inc. (NYSE: ARL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $19.10 (+3.52% 1D, market cap $298.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 4/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ARL ranks #938 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ARL compare to OPI and MLP in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), ARL carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -0.8%. By comparison, OPI (Office Properties Income Trust of) holds a E grade (22/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -30.9%, cap $295.9M) and MLP (Maui Land & Pineapple Company Inc.) posts a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.9%, cap $286.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARL leads on earnings multiple (18.4x) while FRPH leads on capital efficiency (1.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARL?
▼

Per ARL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001102238), American Realty Investors Inc. generated $50.0M in revenue (+5.7% YoY), $15.7M in net income, and -$5.6M in free cash flow against $1.10B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $19.18 (+0.44%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (38/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510038
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E · Rk D
Cash (3)Whales (13)SEC (10)Macro (8)CEO (4)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9% Base Target
$26 Bull$17 Base$14 Bear
📬 FREE ARL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (38/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ARL SCORES 38/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (34% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6.8% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
30
Grade E$17.51-5.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
33
Grade E$16.52+1.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
35
Grade E$16.74+14.1% Next Q
Current
38
Grade D-$19.10-7.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (30) → D- (38)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ARL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ARL currently carries a cautious 38/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($16.19) and Max Pain ($20.06) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $25.66.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.20% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ARL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 38%NO 62%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM
59.830 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
3 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE56% OF RANGE
L: $12$19.10H: $24
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 3 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 17 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning on ARL

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (15)

-0.8% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -1.92% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 3/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (42)

17/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 8/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ARL
  • ✓Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ARL)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ARL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
ARL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +38.41%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $17.89H $19.10L $17.89C $19.10VOL 3.6K
RES: $20.07SUP: $14.61SMA50: $16.19SMA200: $16.00
$25.28$21.80$18.31$14.82$11.34RES $20.07SUP $14.61$19.102026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ARL Butterfly Map → + Track ARL →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
11.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARL)

Financials Rank #938 of 1097 ⚔️ OPI vs ARL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ARL vs. OPI, MLP, FRPH, BOC)

Industry: Real Estate (54 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, American Realty Investors Inc. (ARL) ranks #938 by composite RQD confidence (38/100, grade D-) and #806 by equity capitalization ($298.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARL leads on earnings valuation at 18.4x trailing P/E, while FRPH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 1.3% ROIC and — gross margin. ARL currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 38/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ARL ACTIVE
American Realty Investors Inc.
D- 38/100 18.4x — -0.8% +3.52% $298.0M Benchmark Subject
OPI
Office Properties Income Trust of
E 22/100 — — -30.9% -4.23% $295.9M /opi-vs-arl →
MLP
Maui Land & Pineapple Company Inc.
D- 36/100 — — -12.9% -0.90% $286.0M /mlp-vs-arl →
FRPH
FRP Holdings Inc.
E 28/100 114.6x — 1.3% +0.59% $360.0M /frph-vs-arl →
BOC
Boston Omaha Corporation (Class A)
E 31/100 — — -0.6% +4.02% $389.8M /boc-vs-arl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001102238 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), American Realty Investors Inc. (ARL) reported GAAP revenue of $50.0M (+5.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $47.3M , and -1.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $15.7M, operating cash flow of -$5.6M, and free cash flow of -$5.6M (-609.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARL closed FY2025 with $1.10B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $50.0M $15.7M -$5.6M -$5.6M $1.10B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $47.3M -$14.7M $1.1M $1.1M $1.03B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $50.5M $4.0M -$31.1M -$31.1M — —

3. ARL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, American Realty Investors Inc. (NYSE: ARL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $19.10 (+3.52% 1D, market cap $298.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 4/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ARL ranks #938 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ARL compare to OPI and MLP in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), ARL carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -0.8%. By comparison, OPI (Office Properties Income Trust of) holds a E grade (22/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -30.9%, cap $295.9M) and MLP (Maui Land & Pineapple Company Inc.) posts a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.9%, cap $286.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARL leads on earnings multiple (18.4x) while FRPH leads on capital efficiency (1.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARL?

Per ARL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001102238), American Realty Investors Inc. generated $50.0M in revenue (+5.7% YoY), $15.7M in net income, and -$5.6M in free cash flow against $1.10B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ARL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARL last traded at $19.10 (+3.52% on volume of 3,061 shares), positioning the stock +17.97% above its 50-day simple moving average ($16.19) and +19.38% above its 200-day simple moving average ($16.00). Across its 52-week range of $12.42 to $24.44, ARL sits at the 55.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.8% ($17.80 to $20.40).

Direct Sub-Reports: ARL RQD Cockpit ARL 12M Forecast ARL Earnings & Move ARL Dividends & DRIP ARL Insiders & 13F ARL Whale Options ARL Profit Sankey ARL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 38/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ARL — American Realty Investors Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

American Realty Investors Inc. (ARL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 38/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $19.10 (+3.52% 1D, market capitalization $298.0M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (3/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -0.8%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -12.9%, and free cash flow yield of -1.92%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (4/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

American Realty Investors Inc. (ARL) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Financials sector and Real Estate industry, with a market capitalization of $0.3B .

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), American Realty Investors Inc. (ARL) reported $50.0M in annual revenue (up from $47.3M in FY2024, +5.7% YoY) and $15.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($50.5M revenue, $4.0M net income) through FY2025, ARL scaled operating cash flow to -$5.6M and free cash flow to -$5.6M, backed by $1.10B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 38/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -1.92% and institutional whale pillar of 13/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 3/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $12.42 – $24.44 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 18.4x trailing P/E against -12.9% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations beyond the stated Financials/Real Estate classification, and second-order bottlenecks are — A prospective investor should note that the only ripple pathway the source data supports is general sensitivity to the real estate sector, reflected in the Macro Regime Fit pillar, and that the beta of 1.0 indicates market-level volatility.

  • Key Question #1: Can ARL sustain or expand its -12.9% operating margin and -0.8% ROIC against Real Estate peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $50.0M and free cash flow of -$5.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ARL's 17.1x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ARL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for American Realty Investors Inc. (ARL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ARL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ARL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $19.10?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ARL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ARL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $22.51 (+22.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Trailing P/E of 18.4 and a Forward P/E of 17.1 with FY 2025 net income of $15.7M against $50.0M revenue, with a 1.0 beta and Altman Z o

Picked up a starter position in ARL in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $18.45. Trailing P/E of 18.4 and a Forward P/E of 17.1 with FY 2025 net income of $15.7M against $50.0M revenue, with a 1.0 beta and Altman Z of 2.5 indicating no distress signal.. Trading inside a $12.42–$24.44 52-week range with -1.92% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Real Estate multiples expand this quarter.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

@SkepticalCFA Shorting a 13/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $18.45 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $15.50 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $18.45

ROIC of -0.8%, FCF yield of -1.92%, and operating income negative in every reported period (-$6.4M, -$6.6M, -$11.2M) show the cash engi

Careful chasing ARL at $18.45. ROIC of -0.8%, FCF yield of -1.92%, and operating income negative in every reported period (-$6.4M, -$6.6M, -$11.2M) show the cash engine is not generating returns.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is -12.9%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $15.50 on multiple compression.

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