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Stock Ratings / Financials / AROW
PFIS (63) CWBC (60) BCAL (62) WASH (69) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$39.26 +2.35% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $39.35

Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $710.6M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AROW Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AROW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Arrow Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: AROW) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $39.26 (+2.35% 1D, market cap $710.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, AROW ranks #281 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AROW compare to PFIS and CWBC in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), AROW carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.2%. By comparison, PFIS (Peoples Financial Services Corp.) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 12.1x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $703.9M) and CWBC (Community West Bancshares) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 18.6x, ROIC 9.3%, cap $699.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BCAL leads on earnings multiple (10.9x) while PFIS leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AROW?
▼

Per AROW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000717538), Arrow Financial Corporation generated $1.87B in revenue (+3.2% YoY), $44.0M in net income, and $36.2M in free cash flow against $4.45B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $39.35 (+0.23%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 1.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510064
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C · Rk C
Cash (11)Whales (12)SEC (13)Macro (13)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target
$48 Bull$40 Base$31 Bear
📬 FREE AROW RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AROW)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AROW SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (20% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 9 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
56
Grade C$36.58+2.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
59
Grade C$37.49+2.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
61
Grade C$38.44+2.1% Next Q
Current
64
Grade C$39.26+1.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (56) → C (64)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AROW Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, AROW faces multiple-compression risk if 16.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($37.85) or 200D SMA ($37.00) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($40.32) toward Bear Floor ($31.45).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AROW• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AROW Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 64%NO 36%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM
55.330 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
4 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE77% OF RANGE
L: $28$39.26H: $43
1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 11 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: C+RQD 27 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 26 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground) on AROW

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
NEUTRAL (55)

10.2% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 5.05% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BULLISH (67)

27/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 13/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like AROW
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (AROW Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
AROW // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +8.30%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-03O $38.66H $39.26L $38.36C $39.26VOL 73.5K
RES: $37.82SUP: $35.18SMA50: $37.85SMA200: $37.00
$43.51$40.16$36.81$33.47$30.12RES $37.82SUP $35.18$39.262026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AROW Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AROW Butterfly Map → + Track AROW →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
9.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AROW today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AROW. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AROW today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AROW)

Financials Rank #281 of 1097 ⚔️ PFIS vs AROW Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (AROW vs. PFIS, CWBC, BCAL, WASH)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) ranks #281 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #619 by equity capitalization ($710.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BCAL leads on earnings valuation at 10.9x trailing P/E, while PFIS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.4% ROIC and — gross margin. WASH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with AROW at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AROW ACTIVE
Arrow Financial Corporation
C 64/100 16.3x — 10.2% +2.35% $710.6M Benchmark Subject
PFIS
Peoples Financial Services Corp.
C 63/100 12.1x — 11.4% +6.54% $703.9M /pfis-vs-arow →
CWBC
Community West Bancshares
C- 60/100 18.6x — 9.3% +2.21% $699.7M /cwbc-vs-arow →
BCAL
California BanCorp
C 62/100 10.9x — 10.9% +1.86% $690.6M /bcal-vs-arow →
WASH
Washington Trust Bancorp Inc.
C+ 69/100 14.3x — 9.6% +3.40% $736.1M /wash-vs-arow →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000717538 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) reported GAAP revenue of $1.87B (+3.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.81B , and +1278.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $44.0M, operating cash flow of $41.3M, and free cash flow of $36.2M (+25.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, AROW closed FY2025 with $4.45B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.87B $44.0M $41.3M $36.2M $4.45B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.81B $29.7M $34.5M $28.9M $4.31B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $135.4M $30.1M $20.6M $20.6M — —

3. AROW Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AROW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Arrow Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: AROW) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $39.26 (+2.35% 1D, market cap $710.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, AROW ranks #281 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AROW compare to PFIS and CWBC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), AROW carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.2%. By comparison, PFIS (Peoples Financial Services Corp.) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 12.1x, ROIC 11.4%, cap $703.9M) and CWBC (Community West Bancshares) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 18.6x, ROIC 9.3%, cap $699.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BCAL leads on earnings multiple (10.9x) while PFIS leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AROW?

Per AROW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000717538), Arrow Financial Corporation generated $1.87B in revenue (+3.2% YoY), $44.0M in net income, and $36.2M in free cash flow against $4.45B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AROW trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AROW last traded at $39.26 (+2.35% on volume of 91,953 shares), positioning the stock +3.73% above its 50-day simple moving average ($37.85) and +6.11% above its 200-day simple moving average ($37.00). Across its 52-week range of $28.00 to $42.70, AROW sits at the 76.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.7% ($37.41 to $41.11).

Direct Sub-Reports: AROW RQD Cockpit AROW 12M Forecast AROW Earnings & Move AROW Dividends & DRIP AROW Insiders & 13F AROW Whale Options AROW Profit Sankey AROW News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 64/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AROW — Arrow Financial Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 64/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $39.26 (+2.35% 1D, market capitalization $710.6M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 10.2%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 5.05%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Major Banks industry. The profile identifies the company as a banking-sector business with a market capitalization of $0.7B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) reported $1.87B in annual revenue (up from $1.81B in FY2024, +3.2% YoY) and $44.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($135.4M revenue, $30.1M net income) through FY2025, AROW scaled operating cash flow to $41.3M and free cash flow to $36.2M, backed by $4.45B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 64/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 5.05% and institutional whale pillar of 12/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $28.00 – $42.70 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 16.3x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The only sector-level information is the classification itself (Financials / Major Banks) and beta of 1.0. Investors should note that the absence of mapped links means ripple effects cannot be traced from this dataset.

  • Key Question #1: Can AROW sustain or expand its — operating margin and 10.2% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.87B and free cash flow of $36.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is AROW's 15.2x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

AROW Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AROW Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AROW Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $39.26?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AROW 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AROW:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $44.88 (+17.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Per the SEC financials, net income rose from $29.7M in FY 2024 to $44.0M in FY 2025 while FCF climbed to $36.2M, with the insider pilla

The street is overcomplicating Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW). Per the SEC financials, net income rose from $29.7M in FY 2024 to $44.0M in FY 2025 while FCF climbed to $36.2M, with the insider pillar scoring 15 / 20.. With an RQD score of 64/100 (C) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $41.43.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — AROW's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $29.92 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $38.36

Per the news feed, about $15.6 million in merger costs topped the company's profit tied to the Adirondack deal, and revenue and operati

I respect the product at Arrow Financial Corporation, but the stock at $38.36 is a different story. Per the news feed, about $15.6 million in merger costs topped the company's profit tied to the Adirondack deal, and revenue and operating income are unreported at $0.0M.. FCF yield is 5.05% and RQD sits at 64/100 (C) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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