Should I buy, hold, or sell CAKE stock right now?

Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) currently earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy — BUY) with 71/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 19% return on capital) with steady institutional support.

What is CAKE's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

CAKE's 12-month base price target is $119.57 (range $92.63 to $141.09), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / CAKE

JMKE (47) CAVA (51) BROS (57) WING (66) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$112.96 +0.28% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $113.29

Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 71/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 19% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $5.61B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on CAKE Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CAKE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (NASDAQ: CAKE) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $112.96 (+0.28% 1D, market cap $5.61B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CAKE ranks #132 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CAKE compare to JMKE and CAVA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), CAKE carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 38.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 18.9%. By comparison, JMKE (Jersey Mike's Subs Inc.) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 2.4%, cap $5.81B) and CAVA (CAVA Group Inc.) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 108.5x, ROIC 5.9%, cap $6.86B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WING leads on earnings multiple (22.6x) while WING leads on capital efficiency (45.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CAKE?

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Per CAKE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-30, CIK 0000887596), Cheesecake Factory Incorporated generated $3.75B in revenue (+4.7% YoY), $148.0M in net income, and $155.1M in free cash flow against $3.26B in total assets and $561.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $113.29 (+0.29%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 17/20 (A-) • 4.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CAKE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (71/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY CAKE SCORES 71/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+17/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 4.1% FCF Margin ($155.1M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.2% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (54.8) create a -9 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$112.85+1.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$114.39-7.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$105.73+6.8% Next Q

Current

Grade B-$112.96+6.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (63) → B- (71)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CAKE Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 71/100 (B-) score, CAKE faces multiple-compression risk if 38.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($107.97) or 200D SMA ($80.48) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($119.57) toward Bear Floor ($92.63).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CAKE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “CAKE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 71%NO 29%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

54.830 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.02>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

6 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE92% OF RANGE

L: $43$112.96H: $119

1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (steady margins and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: A-RQD 17 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● BUYING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Hedge funds and options traders are leaning bullish, showing strong institutional appetite.

Factor Grade: BRQD 29 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on CAKE

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (85)

18.9% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.76% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BULLISH (70)

Altman-Z 3.02 and Piotroski 6/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BULLISH (67)

29/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 11/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like CAKE

✓Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
✓Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (CAKE Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

CAKE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +90.52%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-03O $113.1H $113.1L $112.6C $113.0VOL 1.63M

RES: $119.7SUP: $99.35SMA50: $108.0SMA200: $80.48

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CAKE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CAKE Butterfly Map → + Track CAKE →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

29.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CAKE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CAKE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CAKE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CAKE)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #132 of 1009 ⚔️ JMKE vs CAKE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (CAKE vs. JMKE, CAVA, BROS, WING)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) ranks #132 by composite RQD confidence (71/100, grade B-) and #246 by equity capitalization ($5.61B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, WING leads on earnings valuation at 22.6x trailing P/E, while WING leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 45.0% ROIC and — gross margin. CAKE currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 71/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
CAKE ACTIVE Cheesecake Factory Incorporated	B-	71/100	38.0x	—	18.9%	+0.28%	$5.61B	Benchmark Subject
JMKE Jersey Mike's Subs Inc.	D	47/100	32.8x	—	2.4%	+2.84%	$5.81B	/jmke-vs-cake →
CAVA CAVA Group Inc.	D	51/100	108.5x	—	5.9%	+5.64%	$6.86B	/cava-vs-cake →
BROS Dutch Bros Inc.	D+	57/100	96.2x	25.9%	20.7%	+2.33%	$7.49B	/bros-vs-cake →
WING Wingstop Inc.	C+	66/100	22.6x	—	45.0%	+8.89%	$4.05B	/wing-vs-cake →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-30 • CIK 0000887596 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-30), Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) reported GAAP revenue of $3.75B (+4.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.58B , and +9.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $148.0M, operating cash flow of $301.3M, and free cash flow of $155.1M (+43.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, CAKE closed FY2025 with $3.26B in total assets against $561.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.02, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-30	$3.75B	$148.0M	$301.3M	$155.1M	$3.26B	$561.3M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$3.58B	$157.0M	$268.3M	$108.0M	$3.04B	$452.1M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-01-02	$3.44B	$101.0M	$218.4M	$63.6M	$4.13B	$965.8M

3. CAKE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CAKE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does CAKE compare to JMKE and CAVA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CAKE?

Where is CAKE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CAKE last traded at $112.96 (+0.28% on volume of 1,479,153 shares), positioning the stock +4.62% above its 50-day simple moving average ($107.97) and +40.36% above its 200-day simple moving average ($80.48). Across its 52-week range of $43.07 to $118.63, CAKE sits at the 92.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.2% ($102.57 to $123.35).

Direct Sub-Reports: CAKE RQD Cockpit CAKE 12M Forecast CAKE Earnings & Move CAKE Dividends & DRIP CAKE Insiders & 13F CAKE Whale Options CAKE Profit Sankey CAKE News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 71/100 (B-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CAKE — Cheesecake Factory Incorporated: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 71/100, corresponding to a B- letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $112.96 (+0.28% 1D, market capitalization $5.61B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (17/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 18.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 5.0%, and free cash flow yield of 2.76%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (17/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 0.90x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.02, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 1.29x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

— The profile identifies Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (The) as a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector and Restaurants industry, with a market capitalization of $5.6B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-30), Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) reported $3.75B in annual revenue (up from $3.58B in FY2024, +4.7% YoY) and $148.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($3.44B revenue, $101.0M net income) through FY2025, CAKE scaled operating cash flow to $301.3M and free cash flow to $155.1M, backed by $3.26B in total assets against $561.3M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (B- • RQD 71/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 17/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 17/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $43.07 – $118.63 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 38.0x trailing P/E and 19.2x EV/EBITDA against 5.0% operating margins and a 0.90x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source data therefore does not establish upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or cross-sector dependencies. The only sector context available is Consumer Discretionary and Restaurants, with the RQD macro regime score noting sector sensitivity.

Key Question #1: Can CAKE sustain or expand its 5.0% operating margin and 18.9% ROIC against Restaurants peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $3.75B and free cash flow of $155.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $561.3M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is CAKE's 35.3x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.90x)?

CAKE Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CAKE Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 22h ago

CAKE Stock Price and Chart — NASDAQ:CAKE

TradingView report covering Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

The Cheesecake Factory Stock Has More Than Doubled This Year

Yahoo Finance report covering Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Cheesecake Factory: Massive Traffic Burst Can't Be Ignored (Upgrade)

Seeking Alpha report covering Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) Hits Fresh High: Is There Still Room to Run?

Yahoo Finance report covering Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (NASDAQ:CAKE) Stock Has Consensus Price Target of $90.33 According to Analysts

MarketBeat report covering Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE marketscreener.com • 1d ago

Earnings Flash (CAKE) The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated Posts Q3 Adjusted EPS $1.02 per Share, vs. FactSet Est of $0.96

marketscreener.com report covering Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

Comparable sales at Cheesecake Factory restaurants rose 15.2% year over year

Stock Titan report covering Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Cheesecake Factory: Good Results Overwhelmed By Valuation And Macro Risks (NASDAQ:CAKE)

Seeking Alpha report covering Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CAKE Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $112.96?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CAKE 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $139.67 (+24.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Solid 18.9% ROIC and a 17/20 cash-engine pillar, plus reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.02 beating the $0.96 FactSet estimate.

Here is why I am bullish on CAKE here at $112.64: Solid 18.9% ROIC and a 17/20 cash-engine pillar, plus reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.02 beating the $0.96 FactSet estimate.. Compare CAKE's 5.0% operating margin and 18.9% ROIC against the rest of Restaurants. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $107.01 are getting bought.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Fair point on 38.0x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Restaurants. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $95.74 (-15.0%)

Spot @ $112.64

A 38 trailing P/E and a 2.76% FCF yield sit well above the $90.33 consensus target, leaving little valuation cushion.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short CAKE above $112.64. A 38 trailing P/E and a 2.76% FCF yield sit well above the $90.33 consensus target, leaving little valuation cushion.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (17/20) and FCF yield (2.76%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $118.63.