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Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$210.77 +2.89% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $211.47

Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $125.67B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on COF Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is COF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE: COF) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $210.77 (+2.89% 1D, market cap $125.67B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, COF ranks #256 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does COF compare to MFG and BNS in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), COF carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 52.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 0.9%. By comparison, MFG (Mizuho Financial Group Inc. Sponosred ADR (Japan)) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $120.26B) and BNS (Bank Nova Scotia Halifax Pfd 3) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $115.02B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BNY leads on earnings multiple (18.3x) while MFG leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for COF?
▼

Per COF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000927628), Capital One Financial Corporation generated $8.06B in revenue (+36.3% YoY), $2.45B in net income, and $26.14B in free cash flow against $669.01B in total assets and $249.93B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 52x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $211.47 (+0.33%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 324.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510064
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C · Rk C+
Cash (13)Whales (12)SEC (15)Macro (12)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target
$273 Bull$216 Base$169 Bear
📬 FREE COF RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for COF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY COF SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 324.2% FCF Margin ($26.14B FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 8 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
56
Grade C$194.35+6.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
59
Grade C$206.66-0.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
61
Grade C$204.88+2.9% Next Q
Current
64
Grade C$210.77+1.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (56) → C (64)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the COF Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, COF faces multiple-compression risk if 52.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 52x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($204.12) or 200D SMA ($200.80) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($216.46) toward Bear Floor ($168.84).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $COF• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “COF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 64%NO 36%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
52.230 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
7 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE43% OF RANGE
L: $174$210.77H: $260
1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: CRQD 13 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 24 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: C+RQD 27 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground) on COF

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
NEUTRAL (65)

0.9% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 20.41% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (75)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
NEUTRAL (60)

24/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 12/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like COF
  • ✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Priced at 52x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (COF Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
COF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +10.98%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $208.7H $210.8L $204.9C $210.8VOL 4.56M
RES: $241.5SUP: $186.8SMA50: $204.1SMA200: $200.8
$231.9$216.3$200.7$185.0$169.4RES $241.5SUP $186.8$210.82026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

COF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 COF Butterfly Map → + Track COF →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
37.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +36.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on COF today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for COF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for COF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (COF)

Financials Rank #256 of 1097 ⚔️ MFG vs COF Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (COF vs. MFG, BNS, UBS, BNY)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) ranks #256 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #25 by equity capitalization ($125.67B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BNY leads on earnings valuation at 18.3x trailing P/E, while MFG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and — gross margin. BNY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with COF at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
COF ACTIVE
Capital One Financial Corporation
C 64/100 52.2x — 0.9% +2.89% $125.67B Benchmark Subject
MFG
Mizuho Financial Group Inc. Sponosred ADR (Japan)
D+ 56/100 32.8x — 9.9% -0.52% $120.26B /mfg-vs-cof →
BNS
Bank Nova Scotia Halifax Pfd 3
C 65/100 32.8x — 9.9% +0.33% $115.02B /bns-vs-cof →
UBS
UBS Group AG Registered
D+ 58/100 32.8x — 9.9% +1.66% $148.00B /ubs-vs-cof →
BNY
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation
C+ 66/100 18.3x — 2.4% +0.46% $99.81B /bny-vs-cof →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000927628 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) reported GAAP revenue of $8.06B (+36.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $5.92B , and +42.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $2.45B, operating cash flow of $27.72B, and free cash flow of $26.14B (+54.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, COF closed FY2025 with $669.01B in total assets against $249.93B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $8.06B $2.45B $27.72B $26.14B $669.01B $249.93B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $5.92B $4.75B $18.16B $16.95B $490.14B $193.21B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $5.64B $4.89B $20.57B $20.32B $70.43B $16.48B

3. COF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is COF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Capital One Financial Corporation (NYSE: COF) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $210.77 (+2.89% 1D, market cap $125.67B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, COF ranks #256 in composite RQD confidence.

How does COF compare to MFG and BNS in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), COF carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 52.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 0.9%. By comparison, MFG (Mizuho Financial Group Inc. Sponosred ADR (Japan)) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $120.26B) and BNS (Bank Nova Scotia Halifax Pfd 3) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $115.02B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BNY leads on earnings multiple (18.3x) while MFG leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for COF?

Per COF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000927628), Capital One Financial Corporation generated $8.06B in revenue (+36.3% YoY), $2.45B in net income, and $26.14B in free cash flow against $669.01B in total assets and $249.93B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 52x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is COF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

COF last traded at $210.77 (+2.89% on volume of 4,961,022 shares), positioning the stock +3.26% above its 50-day simple moving average ($204.12) and +4.97% above its 200-day simple moving average ($200.80). Across its 52-week range of $174.24 to $259.64, COF sits at the 42.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.0% ($200.23 to $221.31).

Direct Sub-Reports: COF RQD Cockpit COF 12M Forecast COF Earnings & Move COF Dividends & DRIP COF Insiders & 13F COF Whale Options COF Profit Sankey COF News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 64/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

COF — Capital One Financial Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 64/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $210.77 (+2.89% 1D, market capitalization $125.67B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 0.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 37.1%, and free cash flow yield of 20.41%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 1.08x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Major Banks industry,. FY 2025 revenue was $8.06B. Revenue composition, customer segments, and the specific mechanics of how the company earns income are not itemized in the source data.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) reported $8.06B in annual revenue (up from $5.92B in FY2024, +36.3% YoY) and $2.45B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($5.64B revenue, $4.89B net income) through FY2025, COF scaled operating cash flow to $27.72B and free cash flow to $26.14B, backed by $669.01B in total assets against $249.93B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 64/100): Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Free cash flow yield of 20.41% and institutional whale pillar of 12/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $174.24 – $259.64 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Priced at 52x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Investors must weigh 52.2x trailing P/E and 64.8x EV/EBITDA against 37.1% operating margins and a 1.08x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Major Banks (Financials), COF carries a macro regime beta of 1.08 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can COF sustain or expand its 37.1% operating margin and 0.9% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $8.06B and free cash flow of $26.14B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $249.93B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is COF's 43.8x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.08x)?

COF Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to COF Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

COF Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $210.77?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON COF 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on COF:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $266.30 (+30.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet scores 15/20 with Altman Z 2.5, Piotroski F 7/9, and Debt/Equity 0.5, and the FCF yield of 20.41% is high.

Here is why I am bullish on COF here at $204.85: Forensic balance sheet scores 15/20 with Altman Z 2.5, Piotroski F 7/9, and Debt/Equity 0.5, and the FCF yield of 20.41% is high.. Compare COF's 37.1% operating margin and 0.9% ROIC against the rest of Major Banks. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $194.61 are getting bought.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@DeltaGamma_99 Agree on the RQD 64/100 quality, though with 1.08 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $204.85 and keeping dry powder in case we test $190.51.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $153.64 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $204.85

Valuation is stretched at 52.2 trailing P/E and 64.8 EV/EBITDA against ROIC of 0.9%, and reported net income fell from $4.89B to $245

I respect the product at Capital One Financial Corporation, but the stock at $204.85 is a different story. Valuation is stretched at 52.2 trailing P/E and 64.8 EV/EBITDA against ROIC of 0.9%, and reported net income fell from $4.89B to $2.45B.. FCF yield is 20.41% and RQD sits at 64/100 (C) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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