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Stock Ratings / Financials / HIG
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The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. (HIG) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$135.52 +2.21% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $136.38

The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. (HIG) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 71/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 28% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $35.46B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on HIG Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HIG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. (NYSE: HIG) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $135.52 (+2.21% 1D, market cap $35.46B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, HIG ranks #79 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HIG compare to ACGL and AIG in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), HIG carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 28.4%. By comparison, ACGL (Arch Capital Group Ltd.) holds a B+ grade (80/100 RQD, P/E 8.1x, ROIC 9.2%, cap $36.29B) and AIG (American International Group Inc.) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 13.8x, ROIC 4.1%, cap $42.82B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ACGL leads on earnings multiple (8.1x) while HIG leads on capital efficiency (28.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HIG?
▼

Per HIG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000874766), The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. generated $1.51B in revenue (+3.3% YoY), $3.84B in net income, and $5.75B in free cash flow against $86.03B in total assets and $4.37B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $136.39 (+0.64%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 17/20 (A-) • 382% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-
025507510071
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw B+ · Rk C
Cash (17)Whales (11)SEC (15)Macro (10)CEO (18)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.9% Base Target
$169 Bull$143 Base$111 Bear
📬 FREE HIG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HIG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (71/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HIG SCORES 71/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+17/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 382% FCF Margin ($5.75B FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (50) create a -10 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
63
Grade C+$131.96+2.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
66
Grade B-$135.82-4.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
68
Grade B-$130.04+4.2% Next Q
Current
71
Grade B-$135.52+6.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C+ (63) → B- (71)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HIG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 71/100 (B-) score, HIG faces multiple-compression risk if 9.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($132.61) or 200D SMA ($135.43) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($143.45) toward Bear Floor ($111.13).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HIG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HIG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 71%NO 29%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
5030 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
8 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE59% OF RANGE
L: $120$135.52H: $146
1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (steady margins and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: A-RQD 17 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● BUYING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Hedge funds and options traders are leaning bullish, showing strong institutional appetite.

Factor Grade: BRQD 29 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish on HIG

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BULLISH (85)

28.4% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 16.29% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (75)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 8/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
NEUTRAL (65)

29/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like HIG
  • ✓Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
  • ✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (HIG Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
HIG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +1.28%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $132.1H $135.5L $132.1C $135.5VOL 3.22M
RES: $138.9SUP: $115.4SMA50: $132.6SMA200: $135.4
$147.9$140.4$133.0$125.6$118.1RES $138.9SUP $115.4$135.52026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HIG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HIG Butterfly Map → + Track HIG →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-2.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HIG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HIG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HIG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HIG)

Financials Rank #79 of 1097 ⚔️ ACGL vs HIG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (HIG vs. ACGL, AIG, CINF, WRB)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. (HIG) ranks #79 by composite RQD confidence (71/100, grade B-) and #83 by equity capitalization ($35.46B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ACGL leads on earnings valuation at 8.1x trailing P/E, while HIG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 28.4% ROIC and — gross margin. ACGL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 80/100 (B+) compared with HIG at 71/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
HIG ACTIVE
The Hartford Insurance Group Inc.
B- 71/100 9.2x — 28.4% +2.21% $35.46B Benchmark Subject
ACGL
Arch Capital Group Ltd.
B+ 80/100 8.1x — 9.2% +2.77% $36.29B /acgl-vs-hig →
AIG
American International Group Inc.
B- 71/100 13.8x — 4.1% +0.61% $42.82B /aig-vs-hig →
CINF
Cincinnati Financial Corporation
B+ 77/100 11.7x — 9.2% +1.43% $27.81B /cinf-vs-hig →
WRB
W.R. Berkley Corporation
B+ 76/100 15.3x — 8.0% +1.76% $27.42B /wrb-vs-hig →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000874766 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. (HIG) reported GAAP revenue of $1.51B (+3.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.46B , and +9.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $3.84B, operating cash flow of $5.92B, and free cash flow of $5.75B (-0.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, HIG closed FY2025 with $86.03B in total assets against $4.37B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.51B $3.84B $5.92B $5.75B $86.03B $4.37B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.46B $3.11B $5.91B $5.76B $80.92B $4.37B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.38B $2.50B $4.22B $4.16B $19.42B $4.54B

3. HIG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HIG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. (NYSE: HIG) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $135.52 (+2.21% 1D, market cap $35.46B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, HIG ranks #79 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HIG compare to ACGL and AIG in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), HIG carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 28.4%. By comparison, ACGL (Arch Capital Group Ltd.) holds a B+ grade (80/100 RQD, P/E 8.1x, ROIC 9.2%, cap $36.29B) and AIG (American International Group Inc.) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 13.8x, ROIC 4.1%, cap $42.82B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ACGL leads on earnings multiple (8.1x) while HIG leads on capital efficiency (28.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HIG?

Per HIG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000874766), The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. generated $1.51B in revenue (+3.3% YoY), $3.84B in net income, and $5.75B in free cash flow against $86.03B in total assets and $4.37B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HIG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HIG last traded at $135.52 (+2.21% on volume of 2,364,514 shares), positioning the stock +2.19% above its 50-day simple moving average ($132.61) and +0.07% above its 200-day simple moving average ($135.43). Across its 52-week range of $120.42 to $146.07, HIG sits at the 58.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.8% ($130.37 to $140.67).

Direct Sub-Reports: HIG RQD Cockpit HIG 12M Forecast HIG Earnings & Move HIG Dividends & DRIP HIG Insiders & 13F HIG Whale Options HIG Profit Sankey HIG News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 71/100 (B-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

HIG — The Hartford Insurance Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. (HIG) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 71/100, corresponding to a B- letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $135.52 (+2.21% 1D, market capitalization $35.46B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (17/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 28.4%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 75.0%, and free cash flow yield of 16.29%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (11/20) + Insider Conviction (18/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 0.92x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. (HIG) is an NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector and the Property-Casualty Insurers industry. The profile identifies the company as an insurer but does not itemize its product lines, customer segments, or revenue mix. — for specific products sold or target customers. — for detailed monetization mechanics beyond the sector classification.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. (HIG) reported $1.51B in annual revenue (up from $1.46B in FY2024, +3.3% YoY) and $3.84B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.38B revenue, $2.50B net income) through FY2025, HIG scaled operating cash flow to $5.92B and free cash flow to $5.75B, backed by $86.03B in total assets against $4.37B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (B- • RQD 71/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 17/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 11/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $120.42 – $146.07 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 9.2x trailing P/E and 6.1x EV/EBITDA against 75.0% operating margins and a 0.92x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies: — Sector correlations beyond the stated beta of 0.92: — Second-order bottlenecks: — Investors should note that the absence of mapped links means no quantified ripple effects can be drawn from the source data.

  • Key Question #1: Can HIG sustain or expand its 75.0% operating margin and 28.4% ROIC against Property-Casualty Insurers peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.51B and free cash flow of $5.75B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $4.37B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is HIG's 8.6x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.92x)?

HIG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for The Hartford Insurance Group Inc. (HIG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HIG Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HIG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $135.52?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HIG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on HIG:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $160.43 (+21.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction (18/20) and a 28.4% ROIC with a 16.29% FCF yield support the rating's cash-generation strength.

Insider conviction (18/20) and a 28.4% ROIC with a 16.29% FCF yield support the rating's cash-generation strength.. When you look under the hood at HIG, Fundamental Cash Engine is 17/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 28.4% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (11/20) has been quietly accumulating below $146.07. My 12M target is $160.43.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@MidwestValue Agree on the RQD 71/100 quality, though with 0.92 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $132.59 and keeping dry powder in case we test $123.31.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $104.75 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $132.59

A Morgan Stanley pessimistic forecast and mid-range whale flow and macro fit scores (10/20 each) temper the rating.

Fading this rally in HIG at $132.59. A Morgan Stanley pessimistic forecast and mid-range whale flow and macro fit scores (10/20 each) temper the rating.. With a beta of 0.92 and the stock sitting at $132.59 (52-wk range $120.42–$146.07), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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