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Stock Ratings / Energy / HPK
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HighPeak Energy Inc. (HPK) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$8.63 -0.46% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.61

HighPeak Energy Inc. (HPK) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.10B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on HPK Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HPK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, HighPeak Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: HPK) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $8.63 (-0.46% 1D, market cap $1.10B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, HPK ranks #108 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HPK compare to BORR and REPX in the Energy sector?
▼

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), HPK carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.6%. By comparison, BORR (Borr Drilling Limited) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 27.8x, ROIC 8.9%, cap $1.13B) and REPX (Riley Exploration Permian Inc.) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 7.2x, ROIC 12.2%, cap $1.06B). Among the 5-stock peer group, REPX leads on earnings multiple (7.2x) while REPX leads on capital efficiency (12.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HPK?
▼

Per HPK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001792849), HighPeak Energy Inc. generated $863.4M in revenue (-22.7% YoY), $18.96B in net income, and $511.6M in free cash flow against $3.21B in total assets and $1.13B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.61 (-0.27%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 59.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510057
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D · Rk C+
Cash (8)Whales (13)SEC (12)Macro (15)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.5% Base Target
$13 Bull$9 Base$7 Bear
📬 FREE HPK RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HPK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HPK SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 58% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 38.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 17.4% operating margin leave 12 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
65
Grade C+$9.91+13.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
62
Grade C+$11.26-2.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
60
Grade C$10.98-21.4% Next Q
Current
57
Grade D+$8.63-0.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C+ (65) → D+ (57)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HPK Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, HPK faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($9.01) or 200D SMA ($7.16) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($8.59) toward Bear Floor ($6.70).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HPK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HPK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
38.630 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)
5 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE58% OF RANGE
L: $4$8.63H: $12
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 8 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 22 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: C+RQD 27 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground) on HPK

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (40)

4.6% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (60)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
NEUTRAL (62)

22/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 15/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like HPK
  • ✓Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HPK)

  • ✓Walkthrough of HPK's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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HPK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +27.10%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-04O $10.19H $10.19L $8.63C $8.63VOL 1.25M
RES: $12.42SUP: $7.98SMA50: $9.01SMA200: $7.16
$12.53$10.47$8.40$6.34$4.28RES $12.42SUP $7.98$8.632026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HPK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HPK Butterfly Map → + Track HPK →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
12.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -22.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HPK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HPK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HPK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HPK)

Energy Rank #108 of 211 ⚔️ BORR vs HPK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (HPK vs. BORR, REPX, TBN, SBR)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, HighPeak Energy Inc. (HPK) ranks #108 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #134 by equity capitalization ($1.10B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, REPX leads on earnings valuation at 7.2x trailing P/E, while REPX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.2% ROIC and — gross margin. REPX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with HPK at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
HPK ACTIVE
HighPeak Energy Inc.
D+ 57/100 — — 4.6% -0.46% $1.10B Benchmark Subject
BORR
Borr Drilling Limited
D 50/100 27.8x — 8.9% -5.98% $1.13B /borr-vs-hpk →
REPX
Riley Exploration Permian Inc.
B 73/100 7.2x — 12.2% -1.53% $1.06B /repx-vs-hpk →
TBN
Tamboran Resources Corporation
D- 37/100 — — -10.1% -1.29% $1.03B /tbn-vs-hpk →
SBR
Sabine Royalty Trust
D 49/100 — — — -0.92% $1.01B /sbr-vs-hpk →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001792849 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), HighPeak Energy Inc. (HPK) reported GAAP revenue of $863.4M (-22.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.12B , and -23.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $18.96B, operating cash flow of $511.6M, and free cash flow of $511.6M (-25.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, HPK closed FY2025 with $3.21B in total assets against $1.13B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $863.4M $18.96B $511.6M $511.6M $3.21B $1.13B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.12B $95.07B $690.4M $690.4M $3.06B $928.4M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.13B $215.87B $756.4M $756.4M — —

3. HPK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HPK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, HighPeak Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: HPK) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $8.63 (-0.46% 1D, market cap $1.10B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, HPK ranks #108 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HPK compare to BORR and REPX in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), HPK carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.6%. By comparison, BORR (Borr Drilling Limited) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 27.8x, ROIC 8.9%, cap $1.13B) and REPX (Riley Exploration Permian Inc.) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 7.2x, ROIC 12.2%, cap $1.06B). Among the 5-stock peer group, REPX leads on earnings multiple (7.2x) while REPX leads on capital efficiency (12.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HPK?

Per HPK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001792849), HighPeak Energy Inc. generated $863.4M in revenue (-22.7% YoY), $18.96B in net income, and $511.6M in free cash flow against $3.21B in total assets and $1.13B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HPK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HPK last traded at $8.63 (-0.46% on volume of 419,614 shares), positioning the stock -4.22% below its 50-day simple moving average ($9.01) and +20.53% above its 200-day simple moving average ($7.16). Across its 52-week range of $3.85 to $12.03, HPK sits at the 58.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($7.55 to $9.71).

Direct Sub-Reports: HPK RQD Cockpit HPK 12M Forecast HPK Earnings & Move HPK Dividends & DRIP HPK Insiders & 13F HPK Whale Options HPK Profit Sankey HPK News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 57/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

HPK — HighPeak Energy Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

HighPeak Energy Inc. (HPK) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 57/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $8.63 (-0.46% 1D, market capitalization $1.10B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 4.6%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 17.4%, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (15/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.71x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

HighPeak Energy Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Energy sector, operating within Oil & Gas Production. It is classified under this industry with a market capitalization of $1.3B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), HighPeak Energy Inc. (HPK) reported $863.4M in annual revenue (up from $1.12B in FY2024, -22.7% YoY) and $18.96B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.13B revenue, $215.87B net income) through FY2025, HPK scaled operating cash flow to $511.6M and free cash flow to $511.6M, backed by $3.21B in total assets against $1.13B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 57/100): Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 13/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $3.85 – $12.03 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation and 15.3x EV/EBITDA against 17.4% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Sector classification is Energy / Oil & Gas Production. Investors should note that the Beta of 1.0 indicates market-level sensitivity in the source data, and the Macro Regime Fit pillar references sector sensitivity without specifying the underlying commodity or correlation figures. Second-order watch items cannot be quantified from the provided sources.

  • Key Question #1: Can HPK sustain or expand its 17.4% operating margin and 4.6% ROIC against Oil & Gas Production peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $863.4M and free cash flow of $511.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.13B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is HPK's equity valuation to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

HPK Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for HighPeak Energy Inc. (HPK) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HPK Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HPK Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $8.63?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HPK 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on HPK:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $13.15 (+29.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Institutional accumulation and a 15 of 20 whale flow score, alongside an $800M credit facility and a $450M preferred equity deal, point

The street is overcomplicating HighPeak Energy Inc. (HPK). Institutional accumulation and a 15 of 20 whale flow score, alongside an $800M credit facility and a $450M preferred equity deal, point to active capital support.. With an RQD score of 57/100 (D+) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 12/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $11.01.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Shorting a 13/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $10.19 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Energy.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $7.64 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $10.19

A 0% FCF yield, 4.6% ROIC, and revenue falling from $1.13B to $863.4M show weak cash generation against a 15.3 EV/EBITDA valuation.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short HPK above $10.19. A 0% FCF yield, 4.6% ROIC, and revenue falling from $1.13B to $863.4M show weak cash generation against a 15.3 EV/EBITDA valuation.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20) and FCF yield (0.0%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $12.03.

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