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Stock Ratings / Consumer Staples / KDP
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Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$36.82 +2.73% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $36.93

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $48.77B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on KDP Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is KDP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (NASDAQ: KDP) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $36.82 (+2.73% 1D, market cap $48.77B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 19/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, KDP ranks #28 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does KDP compare to CCEP and DEO in the Consumer Staples sector?
▼

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Beverages (Production/Distribution)), KDP carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 23.1x, gross margin of 54.2%, and ROIC of 7.5%. By comparison, CCEP (Coca-Cola Europacific Partners plc) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $51.40B) and DEO (Diageo plc) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $52.01B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KDP leads on earnings multiple (23.1x) while CCEP leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for KDP?
▼

Per KDP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001418135), Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. generated $16.60B in revenue (+8.2% YoY), $2.08B in net income, and $1.50B in free cash flow against $55.46B in total assets and $13.04B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $36.93 (+0.30%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 9.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510065
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C+ · Rk C
Cash (6)Whales (19)SEC (10)Macro (15)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.2% Base Target
$45 Bull$38 Base$30 Bear
📬 FREE KDP RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for KDP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY KDP SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+19/20 pts (29% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.3% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 99% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 68 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 21.5% operating margin leave 14 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
57
Grade C$33.12+4.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
60
Grade C$34.47+1.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
62
Grade C+$34.93+5.4% Next Q
Current
65
Grade C$36.82+1.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (57) → C (65)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the KDP Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, KDP faces multiple-compression risk if 23.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 51.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($32.64) or 200D SMA ($30.11) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($37.98) toward Bear Floor ($29.62).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $KDP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “KDP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 65%NO 35%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM
6830 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)
1.55>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
7 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE99% OF RANGE
L: $25$36.82H: $37
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 6 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● BUYING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Hedge funds and options traders are leaning bullish, showing strong institutional appetite.

Factor Grade: A-RQD 34 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning on KDP

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (30)

7.5% ROIC with 54.2% gross margin and 3.13% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 1.55 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BULLISH (82)

34/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 15/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like KDP
  • ✓Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (KDP Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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KDP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +27.54%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $35.30H $36.82L $35.30C $36.82VOL 32.59M
RES: $36.90SUP: $31.06SMA50: $32.64SMA200: $30.11
$37.48$34.74$32.00$29.25$26.51RES $36.90SUP $31.06$36.822026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

KDP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 KDP Butterfly Map → + Track KDP →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
16.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on KDP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for KDP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for KDP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (KDP)

Consumer Staples Rank #28 of 147 ⚔️ CCEP vs KDP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (KDP vs. CCEP, DEO, FMX, ABEV)

Industry: Beverages (Production/Distribution) (35 Tracked Issuers)

Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) ranks #28 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #14 by equity capitalization ($48.77B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KDP leads on earnings valuation at 23.1x trailing P/E, while CCEP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and — gross margin. CCEP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with KDP at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
KDP ACTIVE
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
C 65/100 23.1x 54.2% 7.5% +2.73% $48.77B Benchmark Subject
CCEP
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners plc
B- 71/100 32.8x — 9.9% +2.08% $51.40B /ccep-vs-kdp →
DEO
Diageo plc
C+ 69/100 32.8x — 9.9% +4.48% $52.01B /deo-vs-kdp →
FMX
Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A.B. de C.V.
C+ 68/100 32.8x — 9.9% +0.87% $42.96B /fmx-vs-kdp →
ABEV
Ambev S.A. American
D+ 53/100 32.8x — 9.9% +1.13% $41.93B /abev-vs-kdp →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001418135 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) reported GAAP revenue of $16.60B (+8.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $15.35B , and +12.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $2.08B, operating cash flow of $1.99B, and free cash flow of $1.50B (-9.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, KDP closed FY2025 with $55.46B in total assets against $13.04B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.55, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $16.60B $2.08B $1.99B $1.50B $55.46B $13.04B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $15.35B $1.44B $2.22B $1.66B $53.43B $12.91B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $14.81B $2.18B $1.33B $662.4M $26.42B $6.18B

3. KDP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is KDP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (NASDAQ: KDP) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $36.82 (+2.73% 1D, market cap $48.77B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 19/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 147 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, KDP ranks #28 in composite RQD confidence.

How does KDP compare to CCEP and DEO in the Consumer Staples sector?

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Beverages (Production/Distribution)), KDP carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 23.1x, gross margin of 54.2%, and ROIC of 7.5%. By comparison, CCEP (Coca-Cola Europacific Partners plc) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $51.40B) and DEO (Diageo plc) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $52.01B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KDP leads on earnings multiple (23.1x) while CCEP leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for KDP?

Per KDP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001418135), Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. generated $16.60B in revenue (+8.2% YoY), $2.08B in net income, and $1.50B in free cash flow against $55.46B in total assets and $13.04B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is KDP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

KDP last traded at $36.82 (+2.73% on volume of 32,048,512 shares), positioning the stock +12.81% above its 50-day simple moving average ($32.64) and +22.28% above its 200-day simple moving average ($30.11). Across its 52-week range of $24.88 to $36.13, KDP sits at the 100.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 68.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.3% ($35.24 to $38.40).

Direct Sub-Reports: KDP RQD Cockpit KDP 12M Forecast KDP Earnings & Move KDP Dividends & DRIP KDP Insiders & 13F KDP Whale Options KDP Profit Sankey KDP News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 65/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

KDP — Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 65/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $36.82 (+2.73% 1D, market capitalization $48.77B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (6/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 7.5%, gross margin of 54.2%, operating margin of 21.5%, and free cash flow yield of 3.13%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (19/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (15/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.15x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.55, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.51x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Staples sector, within the Beverages (Production/Distribution) industry. It operates as a beverage producer and distributor. The profile does not itemize specific products, customers, or revenue channels. Gross margin is reported at 54.2% per the market data.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) reported $16.60B in annual revenue (up from $15.35B in FY2024, +8.2% YoY) and $2.08B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($14.81B revenue, $2.18B net income) through FY2025, KDP scaled operating cash flow to $1.99B and free cash flow to $1.50B, backed by $55.46B in total assets against $13.04B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 65/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 6/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 19/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $24.88 – $36.13 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Investors must weigh 23.1x trailing P/E and 15.1x EV/EBITDA against 21.5% operating margins and a 1.15x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Investors should treat the 2027 separation as the primary structural event to monitor, with its effects on the cost and distribution structure not quantified in the sources.

  • Key Question #1: Can KDP sustain or expand its 21.5% operating margin and 7.5% ROIC against Beverages (Production/Distribution) peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $16.60B and free cash flow of $1.50B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $13.04B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is KDP's 21.5x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Staples capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.15x)?

KDP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to KDP Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

KDP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $36.82?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON KDP 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on KDP:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $45.52 (+27.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Institutional accumulation (whale 13F pillar at 19/20) and a 52-week high at 33.89 USD signal strong professional support heading into

Institutional accumulation (whale 13F pillar at 19/20) and a 52-week high at 33.89 USD signal strong professional support heading into the planned 2027 separation.. When you look under the hood at KDP, Fundamental Cash Engine is 6/20 with 54.2% gross margins and 7.5% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (19/20) has been quietly accumulating below $36.13. My 12M target is $45.52.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@FadeTheHype Fair point on 23.1x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Beverages (Production/Distribution). If gross margin (54.2%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $30.46 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $35.84

A 7.5% ROIC, 3.13% FCF yield, and an Altman Z-Score of 1.55 leave the cash engine and balance sheet thin relative to a $48.04B valuatio

Fading this rally in KDP at $35.84. A 7.5% ROIC, 3.13% FCF yield, and an Altman Z-Score of 1.55 leave the cash engine and balance sheet thin relative to a $48.04B valuation.. With a beta of 1.15 and the stock sitting at $35.84 (52-wk range $24.88–$36.13), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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