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Stock Ratings / Energy / NFG
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National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$79.67 +0.15% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $79.54

National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $7.56B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NFG Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NFG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, National Fuel Gas Company (NYSE: NFG) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $79.67 (+0.15% 1D, market cap $7.56B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, NFG ranks #103 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NFG compare to UGP and NJR in the Energy sector?
▼

Within the Energy sector (Oil/Gas Transmission), NFG carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.5x, gross margin of 90.4%, and ROIC of 9.7%. By comparison, UGP (Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share)) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $6.47B) and NJR (NewJersey Resources Corporation) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 16.1x, ROIC 16.3%, cap $5.40B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NFG leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while NJR leads on capital efficiency (16.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NFG?
▼

Per NFG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0000070145), National Fuel Gas Company generated $2.22B in revenue (+30.0% YoY), $518.5M in net income, and $187.2M in free cash flow against $9.21B in total assets and $2.08B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $79.54 (-0.16%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 8.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510058
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk C
Cash (8)Whales (8)SEC (14)Macro (12)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target
$102 Bull$80 Base$62 Bear
📬 FREE NFG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NFG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NFG SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.83 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
50
Grade C-$79.20+0.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
53
Grade C-$79.31+1.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
55
Grade C$80.21-0.7% Next Q
Current
58
Grade D+$79.67+0% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (50) → D+ (58)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NFG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, NFG faces multiple-compression risk if 14.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 87.9% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($80.13) or 200D SMA ($83.34) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($79.67) toward Bear Floor ($62.14).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NFG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NFG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 58%NO 42%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
49.330 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDWATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)
1.83>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
8 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE21% OF RANGE
L: $75$79.67H: $97
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 8 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 24 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 26 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground) on NFG

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (40)

9.7% ROIC with 90.4% gross margin and 2.48% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (70)

Altman-Z 1.83 and Piotroski 8/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
NEUTRAL (60)

24/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 12/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like NFG
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NFG)

  • ✓Walkthrough of NFG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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NFG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.04%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $79.36H $79.67L $79.36C $79.67VOL 1.02M
RES: $84.82SUP: $72.80SMA50: $80.13SMA200: $83.34
$92.44$87.72$83.00$78.28$73.57RES $84.82SUP $72.80$79.672026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NFG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NFG Butterfly Map → + Track NFG →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
6.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +30.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NFG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NFG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NFG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NFG)

Energy Rank #103 of 211 ⚔️ UGP vs NFG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (NFG vs. UGP, NJR, SR, OGS)

Industry: Oil/Gas Transmission (13 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) ranks #103 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #68 by equity capitalization ($7.56B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NFG leads on earnings valuation at 14.5x trailing P/E, while NJR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.3% ROIC and — gross margin. NJR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with NFG at 58/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NFG ACTIVE
National Fuel Gas Company
D+ 58/100 14.5x 90.4% 9.7% +0.15% $7.56B Benchmark Subject
UGP
Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share)
D 48/100 — — — -1.89% $6.47B /ugp-vs-nfg →
NJR
NewJersey Resources Corporation
B- 71/100 16.1x — 16.3% +1.82% $5.40B /njr-vs-nfg →
SR
Spire Inc.
D 44/100 18.9x 58.8% 5.3% +0.99% $5.20B /sr-vs-nfg →
OGS
ONE Gas Inc.
D 50/100 18.6x — 6.2% +1.78% $4.94B /ogs-vs-nfg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0000070145 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) reported GAAP revenue of $2.22B (+30.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.71B , and -1.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $518.5M, operating cash flow of $1.10B, and free cash flow of $187.2M (+39.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, NFG closed FY2025 with $9.21B in total assets against $2.08B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.83, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-09-30 $2.22B $518.5M $1.10B $187.2M $9.21B $2.08B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-09-30 $1.71B $77.5M $1.07B $134.7M $8.30B $2.19B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-09-30 $2.25B $476.9M $1.24B $1.14B $4.15B $970.8M

3. NFG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NFG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, National Fuel Gas Company (NYSE: NFG) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $79.67 (+0.15% 1D, market cap $7.56B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, NFG ranks #103 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NFG compare to UGP and NJR in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil/Gas Transmission), NFG carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.5x, gross margin of 90.4%, and ROIC of 9.7%. By comparison, UGP (Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Each representing one Common Share)) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $6.47B) and NJR (NewJersey Resources Corporation) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 16.1x, ROIC 16.3%, cap $5.40B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NFG leads on earnings multiple (14.5x) while NJR leads on capital efficiency (16.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NFG?

Per NFG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0000070145), National Fuel Gas Company generated $2.22B in revenue (+30.0% YoY), $518.5M in net income, and $187.2M in free cash flow against $9.21B in total assets and $2.08B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NFG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NFG last traded at $79.67 (+0.15% on volume of 1,007,505 shares), positioning the stock -0.57% below its 50-day simple moving average ($80.13) and -4.40% below its 200-day simple moving average ($83.34). Across its 52-week range of $75.03 to $97.06, NFG sits at the 21.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.2% ($76.32 to $83.02).

Direct Sub-Reports: NFG RQD Cockpit NFG 12M Forecast NFG Earnings & Move NFG Dividends & DRIP NFG Insiders & 13F NFG Whale Options NFG Profit Sankey NFG News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 58/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NFG — National Fuel Gas Company: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-09-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 58/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $79.67 (+0.15% 1D, market capitalization $7.56B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.7%, gross margin of 90.4%, operating margin of 36.7%, and free cash flow yield of 2.48%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.15x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.83, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.44x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

National Fuel Gas Company is a NYSE-listed company in the Energy sector, classified under Oil/Gas Transmission. It has a market capitalization of $7.5B. Per the market data, the company reports a gross margin of 90.4%, an operating margin of 36.7%, and a net margin of 23.4%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-09-30), National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) reported $2.22B in annual revenue (up from $1.71B in FY2024, +30.0% YoY) and $518.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.25B revenue, $476.9M net income) through FY2025, NFG scaled operating cash flow to $1.10B and free cash flow to $187.2M, backed by $9.21B in total assets against $2.08B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 58/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 2.48% and institutional whale pillar of 8/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $75.03 – $97.06 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 14.5x trailing P/E and 5.9x EV/EBITDA against 36.7% operating margins and a 1.15x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Oil/Gas Transmission (Energy), NFG carries a macro regime beta of 1.15 and gross margin of 90.4%.

  • Key Question #1: Can NFG sustain or expand its 36.7% operating margin and 9.7% ROIC against Oil/Gas Transmission peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.22B and free cash flow of $187.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $2.08B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is NFG's 12.2x forward P/E multiple to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.15x)?

NFG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NFG Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NFG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $79.67?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NFG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NFG:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $94.66 (+19.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction scores 16 of 20 and the Piotroski F-Score is 8 of 9, indicating strong insider activity and balance-sheet health.

Don't sleep on NFG's setup in Energy. Insider conviction scores 16 of 20 and the Piotroski F-Score is 8 of 9, indicating strong insider activity and balance-sheet health.. Beta of 1.15 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (58/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@AlphaFlow_Cap Agree on the RQD 58/100 quality, though with 1.15 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $79.55 and keeping dry powder in case we test $73.98.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $62.84 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $79.55

The fundamental cash engine scores only 8 of 20 with a 2.48% FCF yield, while the Altman Z-Score of 1.83 and beta of 1.15 add risk.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on NFG: The fundamental cash engine scores only 8 of 20 with a 2.48% FCF yield, while the Altman Z-Score of 1.83 and beta of 1.15 add risk.. At 14.5x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Oil/Gas Transmission triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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