Should I buy, hold, or sell SMWB stock right now?

Similarweb Ltd. (SMWB) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 44/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is SMWB's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

SMWB's 12-month base price target is $8.15 (range $6.36 to $9.97), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Stock Ratings / Technology / SMWB

BMBL (47) EVER (81) CEVA (26) YALA (62) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Similarweb Ltd. (SMWB) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$8.70 -0.46% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.68

Similarweb Ltd. (SMWB) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 44/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $783.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SMWB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Similarweb Ltd. (NYSE: SMWB) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $8.70 (-0.46% 1D, market cap $783.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, SMWB ranks #438 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SMWB compare to BMBL and EVER in the Technology sector?

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Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Programming Data Processing), SMWB carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 79.5%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, BMBL (Bumble Inc. (Class A)) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $790.5M) and EVER (EverQuote Inc. (Class A)) posts a A- grade (81/100 RQD, P/E 8.1x, ROIC 69.1%, cap $828.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, YALA leads on earnings multiple (5.8x) while EVER leads on capital efficiency (69.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SMWB?

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Per SMWB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001842731), Similarweb Ltd. generated $282.6M in revenue (+13.1% YoY), -$32.9M in net income, and $13.2M in free cash flow against $261.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.68 (-0.27%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 4.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SMWB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (44/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SMWB SCORES 44/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (27% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±10.2% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+9/20 pts (20% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 89% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 51.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 13 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$8.69+2.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$8.93+1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$9.02-3.5% Next Q

Current

Grade D$8.70-6.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (36) → D (44)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SMWB Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While SMWB currently carries a cautious 44/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($8.53) and Max Pain ($9.14) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.97.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SMWB• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SMWB Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 44%NO 56%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

51.730 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)

0.47>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

5 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE89% OF RANGE

L: $2$8.70H: $10

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 8 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 19 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 17 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on SMWB

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (40)

-35.0% ROIC with 79.5% gross margin and 1.63% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (40)

Altman-Z 0.47 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (47)

19/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 9/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like SMWB

✓Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SMWB)

✓Walkthrough of SMWB's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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SMWB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +188.08%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-03O $8.98H $8.98L $8.70C $8.70VOL 453.6K

RES: $9.23SUP: $8.03SMA50: $8.53SMA200: $5.54

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SMWB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SMWB Butterfly Map → + Track SMWB →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +13.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SMWB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SMWB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SMWB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SMWB)

Technology Rank #438 of 715 ⚔️ BMBL vs SMWB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (SMWB vs. BMBL, EVER, CEVA, YALA)

Industry: Computer Software: Programming Data Processing (72 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Similarweb Ltd. (SMWB) ranks #438 by composite RQD confidence (44/100, grade D) and #373 by equity capitalization ($783.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, YALA leads on earnings valuation at 5.8x trailing P/E, while EVER leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 69.1% ROIC and 96.0% gross margin. EVER currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 81/100 (A-) compared with SMWB at 44/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SMWB ACTIVE Similarweb Ltd.	D	44/100	—	79.5%	-35.0%	-0.46%	$783.4M	Benchmark Subject
BMBL Bumble Inc. (Class A)	D	47/100	—	70.8%	-35.0%	-0.33%	$790.5M	/bmbl-vs-smwb →
EVER EverQuote Inc. (Class A)	A-	81/100	8.1x	96.0%	69.1%	+3.23%	$828.5M	/ever-vs-smwb →
CEVA CEVA Inc.	E	26/100	—	87.1%	-3.0%	-4.81%	$831.1M	/ceva-vs-smwb →
YALA Yalla Group Limited each representing one Class A Ordinary Share	C	62/100	5.8x	67.3%	34.1%	+0.18%	$833.5M	/yala-vs-smwb →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001842731 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Similarweb Ltd. (SMWB) reported GAAP revenue of $282.6M (+13.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $249.9M , and +29.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$32.9M, operating cash flow of $14.6M, and free cash flow of $13.2M (-54.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, SMWB closed FY2025 with $261.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.47, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$282.6M	-$32.9M	$14.6M	$13.2M	$261.1M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$249.9M	-$11.5M	$30.2M	$28.7M	$242.9M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$218.0M	-$29.4M	-$3.0M	-$3.0M	—	—

3. SMWB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SMWB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does SMWB compare to BMBL and EVER in the Technology sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SMWB?

Where is SMWB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SMWB last traded at $8.70 (-0.46% on volume of 374,896 shares), positioning the stock +1.99% above its 50-day simple moving average ($8.53) and +57.04% above its 200-day simple moving average ($5.54). Across its 52-week range of $2.22 to $9.50, SMWB sits at the 89.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.2% ($7.81 to $9.59).

Direct Sub-Reports: SMWB RQD Cockpit SMWB 12M Forecast SMWB Earnings & Move SMWB Dividends & DRIP SMWB Insiders & 13F SMWB Whale Options SMWB Profit Sankey SMWB News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 44/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

SMWB — Similarweb Ltd.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Similarweb Ltd. (SMWB) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 44/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $8.70 (-0.46% 1D, market capitalization $783.4M).

Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of 79.5%, operating margin of -8.3%, and free cash flow yield of 1.63%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (7/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.47, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Similarweb Ltd. (SMWB) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Technology sector and the Computer Software: Programming Data Processing industry, with a market capitalization of $0.8B. — for the remaining business description elements.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Similarweb Ltd. (SMWB) reported $282.6M in annual revenue (up from $249.9M in FY2024, +13.1% YoY) and -$32.9M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($218.0M revenue, -$29.4M net income) through FY2025, SMWB scaled operating cash flow to $14.6M and free cash flow to $13.2M, backed by $261.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 44/100): Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 1.63% and institutional whale pillar of 12/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.22 – $9.50 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -8.3% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The supply chain is NONE, with an empty butterfly link set and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are therefore not identified in the source data. The only sector context available is the Technology sector and Computer Software: Programming Data Processing industry classification, with a beta of 1.0 per the market data. Investors should treat ripple effects as unresolved rather than absent.

Key Question #1: Can SMWB sustain or expand its -8.3% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Computer Software: Programming Data Processing peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $282.6M and free cash flow of $13.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is SMWB's equity valuation to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

SMWB Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Similarweb Ltd. (SMWB) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SMWB Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 21h ago

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Similarweb Ltd. (SMWB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance UK • 1d ago

Yahoo Finance UK report covering Similarweb Ltd. (SMWB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE StockInvest.us • 1d ago

StockInvest.us report covering Similarweb Ltd. (SMWB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

About 70% of proposed CEO equity is performance-based as Similarweb (SMWB) puts pay to a vote.

Stock Titan report covering Similarweb Ltd. (SMWB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

MarketBeat report covering Similarweb Ltd. (SMWB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

MarketBeat report covering Similarweb Ltd. (SMWB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

MarketBeat report covering Similarweb Ltd. (SMWB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🔴 RISK WATCH MarketBeat • 1d ago

MarketBeat report covering Similarweb Ltd. (SMWB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SMWB Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $8.70?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SMWB 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $10.84 (+24.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Institutional flow scores 14/20, the highest RQD pillar, and FCF rose to $13.2M in FY 2025 while revenue grew to $282.6M.

Here is why I am bullish on SMWB here at $8.74: Institutional flow scores 14/20, the highest RQD pillar, and FCF rose to $13.2M in FY 2025 while revenue grew to $282.6M.. Compare SMWB's -8.3% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against the rest of Computer Software: Programming Data Processing. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $8.30 are getting bought.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — SMWB's 8/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $7.17 (-18.0%)

Spot @ $8.74

ROIC of -35%, an Altman Z of 0.47, and operating losses in each reported period point to weak capital returns and balance-sheet stress.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short SMWB above $8.74. ROIC of -35%, an Altman Z of 0.47, and operating losses in each reported period point to weak capital returns and balance-sheet stress.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20) and FCF yield (1.63%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $9.50.