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Stock Ratings / Materials / TFPM
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Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$28.87 +2.63% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.95

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $5.81B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TFPM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (NYSE: TFPM) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $28.87 (+2.63% 1D, market cap $5.81B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, TFPM ranks #135 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TFPM compare to OR and BTG in the Materials sector?
▼

Within the Materials sector (Precious Metals), TFPM carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, OR (OR Royalties Inc.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $5.97B) and BTG (B2Gold Corp (Canada)) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $6.08B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SSRM leads on earnings multiple (14.6x) while SSRM leads on capital efficiency (12.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TFPM?
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For Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity and sector rank #135 in Materials, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.95 (+0.28%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 4.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510045
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- · Rk D+
Cash (12)Whales (3)SEC (13)Macro (8)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.9% Base Target
$44 Bull$27 Base$21 Bear
📬 FREE TFPM RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TFPM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TFPM SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL Trailing 12 Months: 4.1% FCF Margin ($162.7M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
53
Grade C-$31.13-1.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
50
Grade C-$30.62-5.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
48
Grade D$29.04-0.6% Next Q
Current
45
Grade D$28.87-6.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (53) → D (45)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TFPM Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TFPM currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($31.76) and Max Pain ($30.31) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $43.79.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TFPM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TFPM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 45%NO 55%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
33.730 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
7 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE15% OF RANGE
L: $27$28.87H: $42
1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 12 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 12 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground) on TFPM

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
NEUTRAL (60)

14.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (33)

12/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 8/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like TFPM
  • ✓Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TFPM)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TFPM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TFPM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -7.88%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $29.18H $29.18L $28.13C $28.87VOL 767.2K
RES: $39.59SUP: $28.90SMA50: $31.76SMA200: $32.73
$36.79$34.03$31.27$28.51$25.75RES $39.59SUP $28.90$28.872026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TFPM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TFPM Butterfly Map → + Track TFPM →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TFPM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TFPM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TFPM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TFPM)

Materials Rank #135 of 270 ⚔️ OR vs TFPM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (TFPM vs. OR, BTG, SBSW, SSRM)

Industry: Precious Metals (74 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM) ranks #135 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #65 by equity capitalization ($5.81B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SSRM leads on earnings valuation at 14.6x trailing P/E, while SSRM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.0% ROIC and — gross margin. SSRM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 60/100 (C-) compared with TFPM at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TFPM ACTIVE
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.
D 45/100 — — — +2.63% $5.81B Benchmark Subject
OR
OR Royalties Inc.
D 46/100 — — — +3.02% $5.97B /or-vs-tfpm →
BTG
B2Gold Corp (Canada)
D+ 56/100 32.8x — 9.9% +3.70% $6.08B /btg-vs-tfpm →
SBSW
D/B/A Sibanye-Stillwater Limited ADS
D+ 52/100 32.8x — 9.9% +1.75% $6.08B /sbsw-vs-tfpm →
SSRM
SSR Mining Inc.
C- 60/100 14.6x — 12.0% +0.98% $5.40B /ssrm-vs-tfpm →

2. TFPM Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM) operates in Precious Metals (Materials) with an equity capitalization of $5.81B, trailing P/E of N/A, forward P/E of N/A, and EV/EBITDA of N/A. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of —, net profit margin of —, ROIC of —, and free cash flow yield of —, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of N/A.

3. TFPM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TFPM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (NYSE: TFPM) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $28.87 (+2.63% 1D, market cap $5.81B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, TFPM ranks #135 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TFPM compare to OR and BTG in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Precious Metals), TFPM carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, OR (OR Royalties Inc.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $5.97B) and BTG (B2Gold Corp (Canada)) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $6.08B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SSRM leads on earnings multiple (14.6x) while SSRM leads on capital efficiency (12.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TFPM?

For Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity and sector rank #135 in Materials, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TFPM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TFPM last traded at $28.87 (+2.63% on volume of 513,356 shares), positioning the stock -9.10% below its 50-day simple moving average ($31.76) and -11.79% below its 200-day simple moving average ($32.73). Across its 52-week range of $26.61 to $41.70, TFPM sits at the 15.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 33.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.6% ($27.25 to $30.49).

Direct Sub-Reports: TFPM RQD Cockpit TFPM 12M Forecast TFPM Earnings & Move TFPM Dividends & DRIP TFPM Insiders & 13F TFPM Whale Options TFPM Profit Sankey TFPM News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 45/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TFPM — Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-11-03

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 45/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $28.87 (+2.63% 1D, market capitalization $5.81B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of —, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of N/A, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. Is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Materials sector and the Precious Metals industry..0B.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 45/100): Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $26.61 – $41.70 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies cannot be mapped from the source data. Sector correlations beyond the Beta of 1.0 and the Materials/Precious Metals classification are — Second-order bottlenecks cannot be identified from the provided sources.

  • Key Question #1: Can TFPM sustain or expand its — operating margin and — ROIC against Precious Metals peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Will free cash flow conversion (— FCF yield) strengthen balance-sheet liquidity (Altman Z-Score N/A) toward the $41.70 52-week high?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TFPM's equity valuation to Materials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

TFPM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TFPM Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TFPM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $28.87?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TFPM 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TFPM:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $32.91 (+17.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet metrics (Piotroski F 6/9, Altman Z 2.5, Debt/Equity 0.5) and a CATALYST-tagged growth headline support the case

The street is overcomplicating Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM). Forensic balance sheet metrics (Piotroski F 6/9, Altman Z 2.5, Debt/Equity 0.5) and a CATALYST-tagged growth headline support the case for upside.. With an RQD score of 45/100 (D) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $30.38.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@ForensicBear Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Precious Metals. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $24.19 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $28.13

ROIC and FCF yield are both 0% and the RQD rates the stock Roarable Sell with a 58 score, with financials, analyst, and holder data all

I respect the product at Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp., but the stock at $28.13 is a different story. ROIC and FCF yield are both 0% and the RQD rates the stock Roarable Sell with a 58 score, with financials, analyst, and holder data all unavailable.. FCF yield is 0.0% and RQD sits at 45/100 (D) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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