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Stock Ratings / Health Care / XGN
TLSI (30) BDSX (40) BNR (20) YDES (44) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Exagen Inc. (XGN) β€” RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$8.39 -2.33% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.34

Exagen Inc. (XGN) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 36/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- β€’ RED ALERT Cap $208.1M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on XGN Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is XGN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Exagen Inc. (NASDAQ: XGN) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $8.39 (-2.33% 1D, market cap $208.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, XGN ranks #567 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does XGN compare to TLSI and BDSX in the Health Care sector?
β–Ό

Within the Health Care sector (Medical Specialities), XGN carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 58.3%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, TLSI (TriSalus Life Sciences Inc.) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $227.8M) and BDSX (Biodesix Inc.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $245.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, XGN leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while YDES leads on capital efficiency (-20.0% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for XGN?
β–Ό

Per XGN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001274737), Exagen Inc. generated $66.6M in revenue (+19.7% YoY), -$20.0M in net income, and -$14.3M in free cash flow against $58.0M in total assets and $22.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.34 (-0.61%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) β€’ 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 Β· D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT β€’ D-
025507510036
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- Β· Rk D-
Cash (4)Whales (14)SEC (8)Macro (7)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.9% Base Target
$12 Bull$8 Base$6 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE XGN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for XGN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (36/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY XGN SCORES 36/100 (D-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (39% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (Β±12.5% realized swing band)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 4/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
28
Grade E$8.25-9.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
31
Grade E$7.43+0.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
33
Grade E$7.47+12.3% Next Q
Current
36
Grade D-$8.39-8.3% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: E (28) β†’ D- (36)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a XGN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While XGN currently carries a cautious 36/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($7.93) and Max Pain ($8.81) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $12.08.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $XGNβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œXGN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 36%NO 64%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM
55.430 Oversold Β· 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)
0.20>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
4 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE65% OF RANGE
L: $3$8.39H: $12
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 4 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 17 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 15 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning on XGN

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (20)

-35.0% ROIC with 58.3% gross margin and -6.77% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (40)

Altman-Z 0.20 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (40)

17/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 7/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like XGN
  • βœ“Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring XGN)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of XGN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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XGN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +170.65%πŸ“ HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $8.59H $8.67L $8.21C $8.39VOL 243.1K
RES: $10.13SUP: $7.05SMA50: $7.93SMA200: $5.04
$9.67$7.81$5.96$4.10$2.24RES $10.13SUP $7.05$8.392026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

XGN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ XGN Butterfly Map β†’ + Track XGN β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +19.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on XGN today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for XGN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for XGN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (XGN)

Health Care Rank #567 of 1015 βš”οΈ TLSI vs XGN Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (XGN vs. TLSI, BDSX, BNR, YDES)

Industry: Medical Specialities (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Exagen Inc. (XGN) ranks #567 by composite RQD confidence (36/100, grade D-) and #568 by equity capitalization ($208.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, XGN leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while YDES leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -20.0% ROIC and 28.1% gross margin. YDES currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 44/100 (D) compared with XGN at 36/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
XGN ACTIVE
Exagen Inc.
D- 36/100 β€” 58.3% -35.0% -2.33% $208.1M Benchmark Subject
TLSI
TriSalus Life Sciences Inc.
E 30/100 β€” 84.6% -35.0% -1.89% $227.8M /tlsi-vs-xgn β†’
BDSX
Biodesix Inc.
D- 40/100 β€” β€” -35.0% -6.34% $245.4M /bdsx-vs-xgn β†’
BNR
Burning Rock Biotech Limited
E 20/100 β€” 74.7% -35.0% -7.89% $115.0M /bnr-vs-xgn β†’
YDES
YD Bio Limited
D 44/100 β€” 28.1% -20.0% +0.51% $420.7M /ydes-vs-xgn β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001274737 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Exagen Inc. (XGN) reported GAAP revenue of $66.6M (+19.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $55.6M , and +26.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$20.0M, operating cash flow of -$13.6M, and free cash flow of -$14.3M (-3.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, XGN closed FY2025 with $58.0M in total assets against $22.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $66.6M -$20.0M -$13.6M -$14.3M $58.0M $22.3M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $55.6M -$15.1M -$13.3M -$13.8M $44.7M $19.8M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $52.5M -$23.7M -$14.5M -$14.5M β€” β€”

3. XGN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is XGN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Exagen Inc. (NASDAQ: XGN) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $8.39 (-2.33% 1D, market cap $208.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, XGN ranks #567 in composite RQD confidence.

How does XGN compare to TLSI and BDSX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medical Specialities), XGN carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 58.3%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, TLSI (TriSalus Life Sciences Inc.) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $227.8M) and BDSX (Biodesix Inc.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $245.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, XGN leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while YDES leads on capital efficiency (-20.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for XGN?

Per XGN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001274737), Exagen Inc. generated $66.6M in revenue (+19.7% YoY), -$20.0M in net income, and -$14.3M in free cash flow against $58.0M in total assets and $22.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is XGN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

XGN last traded at $8.39 (-2.33% on volume of 243,106 shares), positioning the stock +5.80% above its 50-day simple moving average ($7.93) and +66.47% above its 200-day simple moving average ($5.04). Across its 52-week range of $2.59 to $11.50, XGN sits at the 65.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±12.5% ($7.34 to $9.44).

Direct Sub-Reports: XGN RQD Cockpit XGN 12M Forecast XGN Earnings & Move XGN Dividends & DRIP XGN Insiders & 13F XGN Whale Options XGN Profit Sankey XGN News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 36/100 (D-) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

XGN β€” Exagen Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Exagen Inc. (XGN) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 36/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $8.39 (-2.33% 1D, market capitalization $208.1M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (4/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of 58.3%, operating margin of -21.1%, and free cash flow yield of -6.77%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (14/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.20, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of 1.28x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Exagen Inc. (XGN) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Medical Specialities industry. It is a publicly traded US company with a market capitalization of $0.2B. β€” describes its specific products, customers, or revenue model. Reported revenue of $66.6M for FY 2025 indicates an operating business with meaningful top-line activity, with a gross margin of 58.3%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Exagen Inc. (XGN) reported $66.6M in annual revenue (up from $55.6M in FY2024, +19.7% YoY) and -$20.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($52.5M revenue, -$23.7M net income) through FY2025, XGN scaled operating cash flow to -$13.6M and free cash flow to -$14.3M, backed by $58.0M in total assets against $22.3M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D- β€’ RQD 36/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -6.77% and institutional whale pillar of 14/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 4/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 14/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.59 – $11.50 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -21.1% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or proprietary signal links are recorded for XGN. β€” identifies specific suppliers, customers, or partners. A prospective investor should note that the absence of mapped links means second-order ripple effects cannot be assessed from the provided data.

  • Key Question #1: Can XGN sustain or expand its -21.1% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Medical Specialities peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $66.6M and free cash flow of -$14.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $22.3M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is XGN's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

XGN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Exagen Inc. (XGN) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to XGN Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

XGN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $8.39?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON XGN 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on XGN:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ FCF Compounder Hunter πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $11.34 (+32.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Institutional accumulation (14/20 whale flow) and a TD Cowen target raise to USD 11 point to some market support despite weak fundament

Long XGN at $8.59 targeting $11.34. Institutional accumulation (14/20 whale flow) and a TD Cowen target raise to USD 11 point to some market support despite weak fundamentals.. Institutional whale score is 14/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $2.59 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

RetailWhale_TX πŸ‚ BULL

@RedlineAuditor Shorting a 14/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $8.59 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Health Care.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $7.22 (-15.9%)
Spot @ $8.59

A -35% ROIC, -6.77% FCF yield, and an Altman Z-Score of 0.2 signal a cash-consuming business with meaningful financial distress risk.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on XGN: A -35% ROIC, -6.77% FCF yield, and an Altman Z-Score of 0.2 signal a cash-consuming business with meaningful financial distress risk.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Medical Specialities triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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