Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 34/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
As of 2026-11-02, Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (NASDAQ: AAOI) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 34/100 at a spot price of $69.05 (-12.80% 1D, market cap $6.72B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, AAOI ranks #548 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Technology sector (Semiconductors), AAOI carries a Roarable E (34/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 30.0%, and ROIC of -8.0%. By comparison, MXL (MaxLinear Inc.) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -19.2%, cap $6.52B) and ALGM (Allegro MicroSystems Inc.) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.3%, cap $6.16B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FORM leads on earnings multiple (140.1x) while FORM leads on capital efficiency (4.8% ROIC).
Per AAOI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001158114), Applied Optoelectronics Inc. generated $455.7M in revenue (+82.8% YoY), -$38.2M in net income, and -$353.6M in free cash flow against $1.17B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
Altman Z-Score 9.36 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)
Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (44.3) create a -15 pt regime headwind
While AAOI currently carries a cautious 34/100 (E) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($97.28) and Max Pain ($72.50) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $245.35.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) dropped -12.80% to $69.05, trading at 23% of its 52-week range ($18.5 – $233.67). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-8% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Yahoo Finance report covering Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Trefis report covering Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
The Motley Fool report covering Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Moomoo report covering Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
24/7 Wall St. report covering Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Investing.com report covering Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
24/7 Wall St. report covering Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Compelling Strategic and Financial RationaleThe combination is expected to deliver substantial strategic and financial benefits:Creates a category leader in AI connectivity: Combining Marvell's electrical and
Google's cash burn just torched half a trillion dollars in market value, and the shockwave is now tearing through the optical suppliers that keep AI data centers running. Whether their sold-out order books can absorb the
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +82.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AAOI today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AAOI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) ranks #548 by composite RQD confidence (34/100, grade E) and #185 by equity capitalization ($6.72B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FORM leads on earnings valuation at 140.1x trailing P/E, while FORM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 4.8% ROIC and 39.3% gross margin. SLAB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with AAOI at 34/100 (E).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAOI
ACTIVE
Applied Optoelectronics Inc. | E | 34/100 | — | 30.0% | -8.0% | -12.80% | $6.72B | Benchmark Subject |
| MXL MaxLinear Inc. | C | 62/100 | — | 56.8% | -19.2% | -5.78% | $6.52B | /mxl-vs-aaoi → |
| ALGM Allegro MicroSystems Inc. | D+ | 55/100 | — | 46.3% | 1.3% | -7.57% | $6.16B | /algm-vs-aaoi → |
| SLAB Silicon Laboratories Inc. | C | 65/100 | — | 58.2% | -6.9% | +0.05% | $7.42B | /slab-vs-aaoi → |
| FORM FormFactor Inc. FormFactor Inc. | D | 49/100 | 140.1x | 39.3% | 4.8% | -10.19% | $7.61B | /form-vs-aaoi → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) reported GAAP revenue of $455.7M (+82.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $249.4M , and +109.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$38.2M, operating cash flow of -$174.4M, and free cash flow of -$353.6M (-213.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, AAOI closed FY2025 with $1.17B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 9.36, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $455.7M | -$38.2M | -$174.4M | -$353.6M | $1.17B | $0 |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $249.4M | -$186.7M | -$69.5M | -$112.9M | $547.0M | $4.3M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $217.6M | -$56.0M | -$7.9M | -$17.7M | $3.70B | $865.3M |
As of 2026-11-02, Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (NASDAQ: AAOI) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 34/100 at a spot price of $69.05 (-12.80% 1D, market cap $6.72B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, AAOI ranks #548 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Technology sector (Semiconductors), AAOI carries a Roarable E (34/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 30.0%, and ROIC of -8.0%. By comparison, MXL (MaxLinear Inc.) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -19.2%, cap $6.52B) and ALGM (Allegro MicroSystems Inc.) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.3%, cap $6.16B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FORM leads on earnings multiple (140.1x) while FORM leads on capital efficiency (4.8% ROIC).
Per AAOI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001158114), Applied Optoelectronics Inc. generated $455.7M in revenue (+82.8% YoY), -$38.2M in net income, and -$353.6M in free cash flow against $1.17B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
AAOI last traded at $69.05 (-12.80% on volume of 17,124,506 shares), positioning the stock -29.02% below its 50-day simple moving average ($97.28) and -39.75% below its 200-day simple moving average ($114.60). Across its 52-week range of $18.50 to $233.67, AAOI sits at the 23.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($60.42 to $77.68).
Why AAOI Stock dropped -12.80% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-8% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Per the Roarable RQD rating, AAOI scores 34 out of 100 with a letter grade of E, labeled "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." The five pillars are:
Taken together, the low Fundamental Cash Engine score and the negative ROIC and FCF yield are the largest drags on the rating. A prospective investor evaluating the stock today would be weighing a headline valuation (forward P/E of 22) against negative earnings (EPS TTM of -0.45) and negative cash flow. The score is an analytical summary, not a recommendation.
Applied Optoelectronics Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under the Technology sector and Semiconductors industry, per the company profile. The profile describes the company as operating in semiconductors with a market capitalization of $6.7B. Source data does not describe its specific products, customers, or revenue model beyond these classifications.
| Period | Revenue | Operating Income | Net Income | EPS | FCF | Cash | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 | $455.7M | $-54.6M | $-38.2M | N/A | $-353.6M | $206.1M | $0.0M |
| FY 2024 | $249.4M | $-70.9M | $-186.7M | N/A | $-112.9M | $67.4M | $4.3M |
| FY 2023 | $217.6M | $-41.3M | $-56.0M | N/A | $-17.7M | N/A | $865.3M |
Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $217.6M in FY 2023 to $455.7M in FY 2025, while operating income and net income remained negative in every reported period. Per the market data, gross margin is 30%, operating margin is -12%, and net margin is -8.4%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is -8%, the Altman Z-Score is 9.36, and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9. Reported debt declined from $865.3M in FY 2023 to $0.0M in FY 2025, while cash rose to $206.1M, per the SEC financials.
Per the recent news feed, six headlines are listed for AAOI, with two tagged RISK WATCH and four tagged MARKET WIRE. The RISK WATCH items report a stock decline on the day of coverage: one from Moomoo notes optical communication stocks falling broadly with AAOI dropping over 5%, and one from 24/7 Wall St. reports AAOI diving 9% as AI funding fears hit optical stocks, with Coherent and Lumentum also declining. A Motley Fool headline reports the stock plummeted during the week. MARKET WIRE items include a Yahoo Finance piece describing the stock as discounted after a three-year run, a Trefis piece titled around a reason to buy, and a Yahoo Finance piece describing a 50% decline over six months. The news feed contains no proprietary signals, and the butterfly supply-chain graph reports no supply-chain links.
Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain field is NONE, the butterfly links are empty, and no proprietary signals are recorded. Upstream and downstream dependencies cannot be mapped from the source data. The news feed does reference AI funding concerns and sector-wide moves in optical peers (Coherent and Lumentum), which suggests correlation within optical communications names, but the source data does not quantify those correlations. Investors should watch sector-level sentiment in optical and AI-linked semiconductor names as a potential 2nd-order driver of AAOI's price.
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Yahoo Finance report covering Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Trefis report covering Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
The Motley Fool report covering Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Moomoo report covering Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
24/7 Wall St. report covering Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Investing.com report covering Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
24/7 Wall St. report covering Applied Optoelectronics Inc. (AAOI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Welcome to the AAOI (Applied Optoelectronics Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 34/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Semiconductors. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on AAOI, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 30.0% gross margins. Unless Applied Optoelectronics Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on AAOI, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Semiconductors and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $79.19 (52-wk range $18.50 - $233.67), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.
To protect compute speed and zero-delay Cboe BZX data quality for active members, our current $9.95/month Roarable Pro cohort is 100% full. Join the priority waiting list below and we will notify you the moment the next batch of Pro accounts opens (and lock in your $9.95/mo rate).
Link your personal ChatGPT, Claude Desktop, or Cursor via Roarable's Model Context Protocol (`mcp.roarable.com`) to query all 5,289 stocks, inspect Butterfly supply chains, and trade your `$100K Arena` account.
Interrogate SEC 10-K/10-Q filings on demand and ask custom ticker, valuation, or short-thesis questions directly to any of our 8 specialized AI Quant Analysts.
Command our AI agents to sort and sift 5,289 stocks by custom formulas, follow multi-indicator technical & cash-flow setups, and send you instant Email/SMS breakout & downgrade alerts.
Unlock sub-second Cboe BZX streaming quotes, pre-market/after-hours delta scanners, instant SEC Form 4 insider cluster alerts, and unlimited portfolio stress-testing.
All 8 Roarable Analysts (Mara Quenwick, Devon Kess, Gideon Vane, Eliott Vance, Sorel Thorne, Corin Hale, Tessa Rane, and Felix Orven) are proprietary AI Quant Analysts and automated algorithmic specialists — not human financial advisors, fiduciaries, or registered broker-dealers. While one-to-many daily stock ratings and briefings are free, custom 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alert agents, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections consume dedicated per-user compute and require a $9.95/month Roarable Pro membership. All AI outputs are for educational and research purposes only and never constitute individualized investment advice.
Enter your Google email below for instant 1-step account activation, daily A–E stock rating alerts, and immediate access to your $100,000.00 Virtual Cash Arena account (100% free — no credit card required).