RISK WATCHSeekingAlpha • 2d ago
Ambev Q3: The Day After The Hangover (Rating Downgrade)I downgrade Ambev from buy to hold due to weak operational trends and limited upside versus sector peers.
Why ABEV Stock slipped -0.37% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$2.66 -0.37% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.65
Ambev S.A. American (ABEV) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID
Cap $41.93B
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Is ABEV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Ambev S.A. American (NYSE: ABEV) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $2.66 (-0.37% 1D, market cap $41.93B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, ABEV ranks #64 in composite RQD confidence.
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🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does ABEV compare to FMX and KDP in the Consumer Staples sector?
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Within the Consumer Staples sector (Beverages (Production/Distribution)), ABEV carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, FMX (Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A.B. de C.V.) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $42.96B) and KDP (Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 23.1x, ROIC 7.5%, cap $48.77B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KDP leads on earnings multiple (23.1x) while ABEV leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).
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🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ABEV?
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For Ambev S.A. American (ABEV), key quantitative strengths include Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. and sector rank #64 in Consumer Staples, while primary risk factors center on Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 25.3%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.65 (-0.26%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 15.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk C
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.3% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ABEV)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ABEV SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (30% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.74 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+12/20 pts (23% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 60% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$3.25+0.6% Next Q
61
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$3.27-15% Next Q
58
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$2.78-4.3% Next Q
56
CurrentGrade D+$2.66-0.9% Hist 90D α
53
Trajectory: C (61) → D+ (53)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ABEV Turnaround Squeeze
While ABEV currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.01) and Max Pain ($2.79) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $3.62.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ABEV• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ABEV Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why ABEV Stock slipped -0.37% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Ambev S.A. American (ABEV) slipped -0.37% to $2.66, trading at 32% of its 52-week range ($2.28 – $3.45). Stretched risk/reward at 33x P/E (10% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 32% of its 52-week range ($2.28 – $3.45) with RSI-14 at 29.9 (OVERSOLD (<32)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±6.1% around $2.66 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $926.6M annual free cash flow.
Live ABEV Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 2d ago
Ambev: The Post-Election Selloff Has Created A More Compelling Buying OpportunityAmbev remains a Buy, with post-election volatility creating a compelling entry point amid resilient fundamentals. Discover more about the ABEV stock here.
MARKET WIREBenzinga • 3d ago
Barclays Maintains Equal-Weight on Ambev, Lowers Price Target to $3Barclays analyst Benjamin Theurer maintains Ambev (NYSE:ABEV) with a Equal-Weight and lowers the price target from $3.5 to $3.
CATALYSTYahoo • 4d ago
Ambev Q3 Earnings Call HighlightsAmbev (NYSE:ABEV) reported third-quarter growth in volume, revenue, profitability and normalized earnings, as the brewer cited portfolio gains, commercial execution and cost discipline across its markets. Chief Executive
CATALYSTYahoo • 4d ago
Ambev (ABEV) Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptBrand equity hits five-year record as organic revenue grows 7.6% and margins expand.
RISK WATCHSeekingAlpha • 4d ago
Ambev S.A. (ABEV) Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptAmbev S.A. (ABEV) Q3 2026 Earnings Call October 29, 2026 11:30 AM EDTCompany ParticipantsCarlos Eduardo Lisboa - CEO & Member of Board of Executive...
MARKET WIREBenzinga • 4d ago
Ambev Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptAmbev (NYSE:ABEV) reported third-quarter financial results on Thursday. The transcript from the company’s third-quarter earnings call has been provided below.This transcript is brought to you by Benzinga APIs. For
CATALYSTFintel • 4d ago
Ambev S.A. Board Approves Share Buyback Program of Up to 190,000,000 Common SharesCATALYSTFintel • 4d ago
Ambev S.A. Reports 3Q26 Results and Approves 190,000,000 Share Buyback ProgramMARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 4d ago
Ambev S.A. 2026 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation2026-10-29. The following slide deck was published by Ambev S.A.
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ABEV)
- ✓Walkthrough of ABEV's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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ABEV // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -8.28%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $2.67H $2.67L $2.66C $2.66VOL 33.34M
RES: $3.35SUP: $2.62SMA50: $3.01SMA200: $3.02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
ABEV Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
25.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +14.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ABEV today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ABEV. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ABEV today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ABEV)
Consumer Staples Rank #64 of 146
⚔️ FMX vs ABEV Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (ABEV vs. FMX, KDP, CCEP, DEO)
Industry: Beverages (Production/Distribution) (35 Tracked Issuers)Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ambev S.A. American (ABEV) ranks #64 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #16 by equity capitalization ($41.93B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KDP leads on earnings valuation at 23.1x trailing P/E, while ABEV leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and — gross margin. CCEP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with ABEV at 53/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABEV
ACTIVE
Ambev S.A. American | D+ | 53/100 | 32.8x | — | 9.9% | -0.37% | $41.93B | Benchmark Subject |
| FMX Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A.B. de C.V. | C+ | 68/100 | 32.8x | — | 9.9% | +1.46% | $42.96B | /fmx-vs-abev → |
| KDP Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. | C | 65/100 | 23.1x | 54.2% | 7.5% | +1.53% | $48.77B | /kdp-vs-abev → |
| CCEP Coca-Cola Europacific Partners plc | B- | 71/100 | 32.8x | — | 9.9% | +2.06% | $51.40B | /ccep-vs-abev → |
| DEO Diageo plc | C+ | 69/100 | 32.8x | — | 9.9% | +2.31% | $52.01B | /deo-vs-abev → |
2. ABEV Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics
TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOTAmbev S.A. American (ABEV) operates in Beverages (Production/Distribution) (Consumer Staples) with an equity capitalization of $41.93B, trailing P/E of 32.8x, forward P/E of 27.6x, and EV/EBITDA of 21.0x. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of 13.9%, net profit margin of 10.9%, ROIC of 9.9%, and free cash flow yield of 2.21%, alongside an Altman Z-Score of 3.74 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.
3. ABEV Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs ABEV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-03, Ambev S.A. American (NYSE: ABEV) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $2.66 (-0.37% 1D, market cap $41.93B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, ABEV ranks #64 in composite RQD confidence.
How does ABEV compare to FMX and KDP in the Consumer Staples sector?
Within the Consumer Staples sector (Beverages (Production/Distribution)), ABEV carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, FMX (Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A.B. de C.V.) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $42.96B) and KDP (Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 23.1x, ROIC 7.5%, cap $48.77B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KDP leads on earnings multiple (23.1x) while ABEV leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ABEV?
For Ambev S.A. American (ABEV), key quantitative strengths include Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. and sector rank #64 in Consumer Staples, while primary risk factors center on Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 25.3%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is ABEV trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
ABEV last traded at $2.66 (-0.37% on volume of 33,342,989 shares), positioning the stock -11.63% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.01) and -11.92% below its 200-day simple moving average ($3.02). Across its 52-week range of $2.28 to $3.45, ABEV sits at the 32.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 29.9 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.1% ($2.50 to $2.82).
ABEV Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is ABEV stock moving today?
Why ABEV Stock slipped -0.37% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 33x P/E (10% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 53/100 (D+)
✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED
ABEV — Ambev S.A. American: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T14:08:55Z
Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Per the Roarable RQD rating, ABEV scores 53 out of 100, earning a letter grade of D+ and the verdict "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." Across the five pillars, the Fundamental Cash Engine scores 11 of 20 (ROIC 9.9%; FCF yield 2.21%), suggesting modest returns on invested capital and a thin free-cash-flow yield relative to the price. Whale/13F Flow scores 5 of 20 for institutional accumulation and options positioning, the weakest pillar and a signal of limited smart-money support in the source data. Insider Conviction scores 12 of 20 on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. Macro Regime Fit scores 9 of 20, reflecting a beta of 1.14 and sector sensitivity. Forensic Balance Sheet is the strongest pillar at 16 of 20, supported by an Altman Z-Score of 3.74, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.39.
For a prospective investor, the upside case rests mainly on balance-sheet resilience, while the valuation tradeoff is significant: the stock trades at a P/E (TTM) of 32.8 and an EV/EBITDA of 21 against a free-cash-flow yield of only 2.21%. The rating's verdict reflects that weak cash-generation and flow signals outweigh the balance-sheet strength. This is an analytical framing of the source data, not personalized financial advice.
Snapshot
Open Questions
- What are the reported revenue, operating income, net income, and free-cash-flow figures by period, given that the financials section is empty?
- What explains the reported 0% gross margin alongside a 13.9% operating margin?
- What is the analyst consensus rating and price target distribution?
- Which institutional holders, insiders, or Congressional traders are behind the 5/20 whale-flow and 12/20 insider-conviction scores?
- What recent news or catalysts, if any, are driving the -3.96% price change?
ABEV Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Ambev S.A. American (ABEV) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
🔴 RISK WATCH SeekingAlpha • 2d ago
Ambev Q3: The Day After The Hangover (Rating Downgrade) I downgrade Ambev from buy to hold due to weak operational trends and limited upside versus sector peers.
🟡 MARKET WIRE SeekingAlpha • 2d ago
Ambev: The Post-Election Selloff Has Created A More Compelling Buying Opportunity Ambev remains a Buy, with post-election volatility creating a compelling entry point amid resilient fundamentals. Discover more about the ABEV stock here.
🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 3d ago
Barclays Maintains Equal-Weight on Ambev, Lowers Price Target to $3 Barclays analyst Benjamin Theurer maintains Ambev (NYSE:ABEV) with a Equal-Weight and lowers the price target from $3.5 to $3.
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 4d ago
Ambev Q3 Earnings Call Highlights Ambev (NYSE:ABEV) reported third-quarter growth in volume, revenue, profitability and normalized earnings, as the brewer cited portfolio gains, commercial execution and cost discipline across its markets. Chief Executive
🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 4d ago
Ambev (ABEV) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript Brand equity hits five-year record as organic revenue grows 7.6% and margins expand.
🔴 RISK WATCH SeekingAlpha • 4d ago
Ambev S.A. (ABEV) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript Ambev S.A. (ABEV) Q3 2026 Earnings Call October 29, 2026 11:30 AM EDTCompany ParticipantsCarlos Eduardo Lisboa - CEO & Member of Board of Executive...
🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 4d ago
Ambev Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript Ambev (NYSE:ABEV) reported third-quarter financial results on Thursday. The transcript from the company’s third-quarter earnings call has been provided below.This transcript is brought to you by Benzinga APIs. For
🟢 CATALYST Fintel • 4d ago
Ambev S.A. Board Approves Share Buyback Program of Up to 190,000,000 Common Shares
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE
3 Active Posts & Replies
ABEV Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.66?
🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ABEV 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST
🎯 Target: $2.88 (+7.9%)
📌 Pinned Debate 🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ABEV (D+ • RQD 53/100) a Buy at $2.67?
Welcome to the ABEV (Ambev S.A. American) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 53/100 (Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim) in Beverages (Production/Distribution). Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (32.8x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH
🎯 Target: $2.24 (-16.1%)
Spot @ $2.67 Pump the brakes on ABEV — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ABEV, but look at what you are paying: 32.8x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Ambev S.A. American expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH
🎯 Target: $3.04 (+13.9%)
Spot @ $2.67 ABEV cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ABEV, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Beverages (Production/Distribution) and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $2.67 (52-wk range $2.28 - $3.45), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.