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Arbutus Biopharma Corporation (ABUS) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$4.00 -4.99% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.96

Arbutus Biopharma Corporation (ABUS) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 18/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E β€’ RED ALERT Cap $645.3M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ABUS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Arbutus Biopharma Corporation (NASDAQ: ABUS) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 18/100 at a spot price of $4.00 (-4.99% 1D, market cap $645.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, ABUS ranks #997 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ABUS compare to IMMX and LXRX in the Health Care sector?
β–Ό

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ABUS carries a Roarable E (18/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, IMMX (Immix Biopharma Inc.) holds a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $636.7M) and LXRX (Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Inc.) posts a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -31.5%, cap $631.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ABUS leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while LXRX leads on capital efficiency (-31.5% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ABUS?
β–Ό

Per ABUS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001447028), Arbutus Biopharma Corporation generated $14.1M in revenue (+128.2% YoY), -$33.5M in net income, and -$39.6M in free cash flow against $94.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.96 (-1.09%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) β€’ 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (18/100 Β· E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-12.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT β€’ E
025507510018
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E Β· Rk E
Cash (3)Whales (5)SEC (5)Macro (3)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-18% Base Target
$6 Bull$3 Base$3 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE ABUS RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ABUS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (18/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY ABUS SCORES 18/100 (E) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+5/20 pts (28% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (Β±7% realized swing band)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+5/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.34 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 3/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
26
Grade E$4.11+5.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
23
Grade E$4.33-0.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
21
Grade E$4.29-6.8% Next Q
Current
18
Grade E$4.00-12.2% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: E (26) β†’ E (18)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ABUS Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While ABUS currently carries a cautious 18/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.67) and Max Pain ($4.20) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $5.72.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ABUSβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œABUS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 18%NO 82%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±7%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (ABUS)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for ABUS.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ABUS)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of ABUS's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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ABUS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -8.88%πŸ›‘οΈ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $4.28H $4.28L $4.00C $4.00VOL 2.53M
RES: $5.57SUP: $4.00SMA50: $4.67SMA200: $4.49
$5.55$5.13$4.71$4.29$3.87RES $5.57SUP $4.00$4.002026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ABUS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ ABUS Butterfly Map β†’ + Track ABUS β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +128.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ABUS today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ABUS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ABUS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ABUS)

Health Care Rank #997 of 1015 βš”οΈ IMMX vs ABUS Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ABUS vs. IMMX, LXRX, DSGN, ANL)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Arbutus Biopharma Corporation (ABUS) ranks #997 by composite RQD confidence (18/100, grade E) and #403 by equity capitalization ($645.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ABUS leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while LXRX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -31.5% ROIC and 96.0% gross margin. ANL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 46/100 (D) compared with ABUS at 18/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ABUS ACTIVE
Arbutus Biopharma Corporation
E 18/100 β€” β€” -35.0% -4.99% $645.3M Benchmark Subject
IMMX
Immix Biopharma Inc.
E 29/100 β€” β€” -35.0% -5.47% $636.7M /immx-vs-abus β†’
LXRX
Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Inc.
E 26/100 β€” 96.0% -31.5% +1.41% $631.8M /lxrx-vs-abus β†’
DSGN
Design Therapeutics Inc.
E 33/100 β€” β€” -32.1% -4.96% $668.4M /dsgn-vs-abus β†’
ANL
Adlai Nortye Group Ltd.
D 46/100 β€” β€” β€” -1.88% $615.0M /anl-vs-abus β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001447028 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Arbutus Biopharma Corporation (ABUS) reported GAAP revenue of $14.1M (+128.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $6.2M , and -22.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$33.5M, operating cash flow of -$39.6M, and free cash flow of -$39.6M (+39.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, ABUS closed FY2025 with $94.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.34, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $14.1M -$33.5M -$39.6M -$39.6M $94.6M β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $6.2M -$69.9M -$64.8M -$65.0M $131.7M β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $18.1M -$72.8M -$85.9M -$85.9M β€” β€”

3. ABUS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ABUS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Arbutus Biopharma Corporation (NASDAQ: ABUS) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 18/100 at a spot price of $4.00 (-4.99% 1D, market cap $645.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, ABUS ranks #997 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ABUS compare to IMMX and LXRX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ABUS carries a Roarable E (18/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, IMMX (Immix Biopharma Inc.) holds a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $636.7M) and LXRX (Lexicon Pharmaceuticals Inc.) posts a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -31.5%, cap $631.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ABUS leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while LXRX leads on capital efficiency (-31.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ABUS?

Per ABUS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001447028), Arbutus Biopharma Corporation generated $14.1M in revenue (+128.2% YoY), -$33.5M in net income, and -$39.6M in free cash flow against $94.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ABUS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ABUS last traded at $4.00 (-4.99% on volume of 2,651,058 shares), positioning the stock -14.35% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.67) and -10.91% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.49). Across its 52-week range of $3.50 to $5.45, ABUS sits at the 25.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±7.0% ($3.72 to $4.28).

Direct Sub-Reports: ABUS RQD Cockpit ABUS 12M Forecast ABUS Earnings & Move ABUS Dividends & DRIP ABUS Insiders & 13F ABUS Whale Options ABUS Profit Sankey ABUS News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 18/100 (E) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ABUS β€” Arbutus Biopharma Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Arbutus Biopharma Corporation (ABUS) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 18/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $4.00 (-4.99% 1D, market capitalization $645.3M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (3/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of -6.04%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (3/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (5/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.34, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Arbutus Biopharma Corporation is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. Reported revenue was $14.1M for FY 2025, . Market capitalization is $0.7B.0M in market data.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Arbutus Biopharma Corporation (ABUS) reported $14.1M in annual revenue (up from $6.2M in FY2024, +128.2% YoY) and -$33.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($18.1M revenue, -$72.8M net income) through FY2025, ABUS scaled operating cash flow to -$39.6M and free cash flow to -$39.6M, backed by $94.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (E β€’ RQD 18/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -6.04% and institutional whale pillar of 5/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 3/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $3.50 – $5.45 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Second-order bottlenecks cannot be identified from the provided sources.

  • Key Question #1: Can ABUS sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $14.1M and free cash flow of -$39.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ABUS's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ABUS Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Arbutus Biopharma Corporation (ABUS) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to ABUS Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ABUS Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $4.00?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ABUS 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ABUS:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Swing & Catalyst Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $5.47 (+29.9%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

The FDA lifted the AB-101 clinical hold and the company is retiring 23% of shares in a $230 Million buyback, as reported in the news fe

Here is why I am bullish on ABUS here at $4.21: The FDA lifted the AB-101 clinical hold and the company is retiring 23% of shares in a $230 Million buyback, as reported in the news feed.. Compare ABUS's -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against the rest of Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $4.00 are getting bought.

EarningsSniper πŸ‚ BULL

@BearTrap_Alert Shorting a 5/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $4.21 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Health Care.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.16 (-24.9%)
Spot @ $4.21

The RQD Score of 18 (E) is driven by ROIC of -35%, Altman Z of 1.34, and cash falling from $36.3M to $18.0M against FCF of -$39.6M.

I respect the product at Arbutus Biopharma Corporation, but the stock at $4.21 is a different story. The RQD Score of 18 (E) is driven by ROIC of -35%, Altman Z of 1.34, and cash falling from $36.3M to $18.0M against FCF of -$39.6M.. FCF yield is -6.04% and RQD sits at 18/100 (E) β€” why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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