ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$20.59 -0.82% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.52

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) receives a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) and flashes a Red SELL / AVOID rating (50/100 RQD Confidence). Alongside weak composite pillar scores, our SEC filing scanner spotted paper earnings outpacing operating cash flow (+103.4% (NI vs OCF)).

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.58B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ACAD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ACAD) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $20.59 (-0.82% 1D, market cap $3.58B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Active quantitative signal ACCOUNTING_MIRAGE (BEARISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ACAD compare to AMLX and OGN in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ACAD carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.1x, gross margin of 91.7%, and ROIC of 7.9%. By comparison, AMLX (Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $3.60B) and OGN (Organon & Co.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 19.4x, ROIC 24.9%, cap $3.63B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ACAD leads on earnings multiple (9.1x) while OGN leads on capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ACAD?
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Per ACAD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001070494), ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $1.07B in revenue (+11.9% YoY), $391.0M in net income, and $105.1M in free cash flow against $1.56B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: SEC Accrual Watch: Headline earnings grew faster than operating cash flow—monitor working-capital conversion.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.52 (-0.34%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 9.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510050
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+
Cash (8)Whales (6)SEC (15)Macro (7)CEO (14)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target
$33 Bull$20 Base$15 Bear
📬 FREE ACAD RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ACAD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ACAD SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 6.26 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
42
Grade D$19.41+2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
45
Grade D$19.80-0.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
47
Grade D$19.74+4.3% Next Q
Current
50
Grade D$20.59-1.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (42) → D (50)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ACAD Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ACAD currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($23.57) and Max Pain ($21.62) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $32.51.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ACAD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ACAD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
47.330 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
6.26>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
7 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE18% OF RANGE
L: $18$20.59H: $31
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 8 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 20 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● FORENSIC WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Moderate composite risk score, with an active SEC working-capital accrual or executive-tone watch item to monitor.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 22 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on ACAD

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (40)

7.9% ROIC with 91.7% gross margin and 2.94% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (75)

SEC filing audit notes an accounting accrual divergence or executive risk-factor disclosure — monitor upcoming 10-Q/10-K filings.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (45)

20/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 7/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ACAD
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !SEC Accrual Watch: Headline earnings grew faster than operating cash flow—monitor working-capital conversion.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ACAD)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ACAD's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ACAD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -7.21%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $20.32H $20.76L $20.32C $20.59VOL 2.19M
RES: $36.09SUP: $16.96SMA50: $23.57SMA200: $23.65
$31.84$28.19$24.55$20.90$17.26RES $36.09SUP $16.96$20.592026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ACAD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-3.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +11.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ACAD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ACAD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ACAD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ACAD)

Health Care Rank #290 of 1016 ⚔️ AMLX vs ACAD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ACAD vs. AMLX, OGN, XENE, PBLS)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) ranks #290 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #193 by equity capitalization ($3.58B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ACAD leads on earnings valuation at 9.1x trailing P/E, while OGN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.9% ROIC and 53.3% gross margin. OGN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with ACAD at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ACAD ACTIVE
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D 50/100 9.1x 91.7% 7.9% -0.82% $3.58B Benchmark Subject
AMLX
Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D- 39/100 — — -35.0% +0.63% $3.60B /amlx-vs-acad →
OGN
Organon & Co.
B- 70/100 19.4x 53.3% 24.9% +0.22% $3.63B /ogn-vs-acad →
XENE
Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D- 37/100 — — -35.0% -0.35% $3.64B /xene-vs-acad →
PBLS
Parabilis Medicines Inc.
D 47/100 — — — -1.32% $3.50B /pbls-vs-acad →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001070494

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) reported GAAP revenue of $1.07B (+11.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $957.8M , and +47.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $391.0M, operating cash flow of $109.8M, and free cash flow of $105.1M (-33.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, ACAD closed FY2025 with $1.56B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.26, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.07B $391.0M $109.8M $105.1M $1.56B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $957.8M $226.0M $157.7M $157.2M $1.19B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $726.4M -$61.0M $16.7M $16.7M — —

3. ACAD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ACAD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: ACAD) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $20.59 (-0.82% 1D, market cap $3.58B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Active quantitative signal ACCOUNTING_MIRAGE (BEARISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.

How does ACAD compare to AMLX and OGN in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ACAD carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.1x, gross margin of 91.7%, and ROIC of 7.9%. By comparison, AMLX (Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $3.60B) and OGN (Organon & Co.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 19.4x, ROIC 24.9%, cap $3.63B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ACAD leads on earnings multiple (9.1x) while OGN leads on capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ACAD?

Per ACAD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001070494), ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $1.07B in revenue (+11.9% YoY), $391.0M in net income, and $105.1M in free cash flow against $1.56B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: SEC Accrual Watch: Headline earnings grew faster than operating cash flow—monitor working-capital conversion.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ACAD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ACAD last traded at $20.59 (-0.82% on volume of 1,137,550 shares), positioning the stock -12.64% below its 50-day simple moving average ($23.57) and -12.94% below its 200-day simple moving average ($23.65). Across its 52-week range of $18.39 to $30.96, ACAD sits at the 17.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.2% ($19.31 to $21.87).

ACAD Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell ACAD stock right now?

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 50/100 RQD Confidence. Weak 50/100 RQD score compounded by SEC accrual divergence (+103.4% (NI vs OCF)).

What is ACAD's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ACAD's 12-month base price target is $19.85 (range $15.48 to $32.51), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 50/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ACAD — ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:23:13Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ACAD scores 50 out of 100, a grade of D, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20 (ROIC 7.9%; FCF yield 2.94%), Whale 13F Flow 6/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction 14/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit 7/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet 15/20 (Altman Z 6.26; Piotroski F 7/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). The two weakest pillars, cash engine and macro fit, are the ones most relevant to a prospective investor: the rating indicates that cash-generation quality and sector-sensitivity are where the case is least supported today. The strongest pillar, balance sheet, indicates the company is not presenting obvious solvency stress by the metrics cited. Upside drivers implied by the data are the insider-conviction and balance-sheet strength; valuation tradeoffs are visible in a trailing P/E of 9.1 against an EV/EBITDA of 31.2, which signals that the earnings multiple and the enterprise-value multiple tell different stories and warrant reconciliation before any conclusion is drawn.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
20.76$3.58B9.18.531.22.270%1.0$18.39 - $30.967.9%

Business

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. Per the company profile, it operates with a market capitalization of $3.6B. Source data does not describe the company's specific products, customers, or revenue model beyond the sector and industry classification. Gross margin is reported at 91.7%, indicating a high gross-margin profile per the market data.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the news feed, recent items include a market-wire report on ACAD stock price and history, an RBC Capital reiteration of the stock rating tied to patent developments, a Stock Titan notice of a UBS conference chat on Nov. 17, and a Yahoo Finance headline referencing patent and Phase 2 progress. One item is flagged RED on the RISK WATCH label, a Simply Wall St piece noting a stock drop and asking what is driving attention. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the sole proprietary signal is an ACCOUNTING_MIRAGE signal, terminal label "ACCRUAL & WORKING CAPITAL WATCH," with severity score 82 and a BEARISH direction. The signal states that net income growth (+73%) outpaced operating cash flow growth (-30.4%), with a +103.4% cash conversion gap and working-capital and receivables expansion of +31.1%, and recommends monitoring the upcoming 10-Q for cash realization.

Open Questions

  • What drove the divergence between FY 2025 net income ($391.0M) and operating income ($104.8M), and how much of it is non-operating or non-cash?
  • Does the working-capital and receivables build (+31.1%) reverse in the upcoming 10-Q, as the accounting signal anticipates?
  • Why does the trailing P/E (9.1) sit so far below the EV/EBITDA (31.2), and which earnings base is the more reliable reference?
  • What is the company's debt and EPS figure, which are reported as N/A in the financial table?
  • What specific patent and Phase 2 developments are referenced in the news, and what is their timing relative to revenue?

ACAD Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ACAD Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ACAD Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $20.59?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ACAD 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ACAD:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $22.42 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ACAD (D • RQD 50/100) a Buy at $20.76?

Welcome to the ACAD (ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 50/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

VA ValDiscipline Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $17.02 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $20.76

Pump the brakes on ACAD — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ACAD, but look at what you are paying: 9.1x trailing P/E with 91.7% gross margins. Unless ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $25.12 (+21.0%)
Spot @ $20.76

ACAD cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ACAD, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $20.76 (52-wk range $18.39 - $30.96), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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