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Why ADAM Stock dropped -3.37% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$5.73 -3.37% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.68

Adamas Trust Inc. (ADAM) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 51/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $535.5M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ADAM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Adamas Trust Inc. (NASDAQ: ADAM) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 51/100 at a spot price of $5.73 (-3.37% 1D, market cap $535.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ADAM ranks #624 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ADAM compare to UHT and BDN in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ADAM carries a Roarable D (51/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 4.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.9%. By comparison, UHT (Universal Health Realty Income Trust) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 29.9x, ROIC 18.8%, cap $539.1M) and BDN (Brandywine Realty Trust) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.8%, cap $518.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ADAM leads on earnings multiple (4.4x) while UHT leads on capital efficiency (18.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ADAM?
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Per ADAM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001273685), Adamas Trust Inc. generated $385.8M in revenue (+48.3% YoY), $149.0M in net income, and $125.9M in free cash flow against $12.64B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.68 (-0.80%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 32.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 51/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510051
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk D
Cash (12)Whales (3)SEC (13)Macro (7)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.1% Base Target
$11 Bull$6 Base$4 Bear
📬 FREE ADAM RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ADAM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (51/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ADAM SCORES 51/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (31% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
59
Grade C$7.50-0.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
56
Grade C$7.44+4.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
54
Grade C-$7.78-26.3% Next Q
Current
51
Grade D$5.73-1.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (59) → D (51)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ADAM Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ADAM currently carries a cautious 51/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($8.26) and Max Pain ($6.02) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $10.88.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ADAM• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ADAM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 51%NO 49%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why ADAM Stock dropped -3.37% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Adamas Trust Inc. (ADAM) dropped -3.37% to $5.73, trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($5.93 – $10.36). Stretched risk/reward at 4x P/E (9% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($5.93 – $10.36) with RSI-14 at 27.3 (OVERSOLD (<32)).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±9.4% around $5.73 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $125.9M annual free cash flow.
Live ADAM Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ADAM)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ADAM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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ADAM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -33.45%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-04O $6.54H $6.54L $5.73C $5.73VOL 4.20M
RES: $11.59SUP: $6.96SMA50: $8.26SMA200: $8.52
$10.68$9.34$8.00$6.66$5.31RES $11.59SUP $6.96$5.732026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ADAM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ADAM Butterfly Map → + Track ADAM →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-15.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +48.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ADAM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ADAM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ADAM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ADAM)

Financials Rank #624 of 1097 ⚔️ UHT vs ADAM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ADAM vs. UHT, BDN, TRTX, IVR)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Adamas Trust Inc. (ADAM) ranks #624 by composite RQD confidence (51/100, grade D) and #688 by equity capitalization ($535.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ADAM leads on earnings valuation at 4.4x trailing P/E, while UHT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.8% ROIC and — gross margin. UHT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with ADAM at 51/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ADAM ACTIVE
Adamas Trust Inc.
D 51/100 4.4x — 8.9% -3.37% $535.5M Benchmark Subject
UHT
Universal Health Realty Income Trust
C- 61/100 29.9x — 18.8% -1.78% $539.1M /uht-vs-adam →
BDN
Brandywine Realty Trust
D 46/100 — — 2.8% -0.98% $518.6M /bdn-vs-adam →
TRTX
TPG RE Finance Trust Inc.
D+ 54/100 8.1x — 5.6% -0.29% $517.9M /trtx-vs-adam →
IVR
INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC
D 46/100 5.9x — 12.7% -0.56% $582.6M /ivr-vs-adam →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001273685 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Adamas Trust Inc. (ADAM) reported GAAP revenue of $385.8M (+48.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $260.2M , and +77.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $149.0M, operating cash flow of $134.0M, and free cash flow of $125.9M (+1290.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, ADAM closed FY2025 with $12.64B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $385.8M $149.0M $134.0M $125.9M $12.64B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $260.2M -$62.0M $14.1M -$10.6M $9.22B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $217.6M -$48.7M $30.0M $30.0M — —

3. ADAM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ADAM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Adamas Trust Inc. (NASDAQ: ADAM) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 51/100 at a spot price of $5.73 (-3.37% 1D, market cap $535.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ADAM ranks #624 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ADAM compare to UHT and BDN in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ADAM carries a Roarable D (51/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 4.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.9%. By comparison, UHT (Universal Health Realty Income Trust) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 29.9x, ROIC 18.8%, cap $539.1M) and BDN (Brandywine Realty Trust) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.8%, cap $518.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ADAM leads on earnings multiple (4.4x) while UHT leads on capital efficiency (18.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ADAM?

Per ADAM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001273685), Adamas Trust Inc. generated $385.8M in revenue (+48.3% YoY), $149.0M in net income, and $125.9M in free cash flow against $12.64B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ADAM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ADAM last traded at $5.73 (-3.37% on volume of 2,197,166 shares), positioning the stock -30.63% below its 50-day simple moving average ($8.26) and -32.75% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.52). Across its 52-week range of $5.93 to $10.36, ADAM sits at the 0.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 27.3 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.4% ($5.19 to $6.27).

Direct Sub-Reports: ADAM RQD Cockpit ADAM 12M Forecast ADAM Earnings & Move ADAM Dividends & DRIP ADAM Insiders & 13F ADAM Whale Options ADAM Profit Sankey ADAM News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 51/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ADAM — Adamas Trust Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Adamas Trust Inc. (ADAM) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 51/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $5.73 (-3.37% 1D, market capitalization $535.5M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 8.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 19.42%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Adamas Trust Inc. (ADAM) is a NASDAQ-listed operating company in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry (Financials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $590.6M. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 0%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 8.9% (free cash flow yield of 19.42%). Within the Real Estate Investment Trusts peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Adamas Trust Inc. (ADAM) reported $385.8M in annual revenue (up from $260.2M in FY2024, +48.3% YoY) and $149.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($217.6M revenue, -$48.7M net income) through FY2025, ADAM scaled operating cash flow to $134.0M and free cash flow to $125.9M, backed by $12.64B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 51/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 19.42% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $5.93 – $10.36 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 4.4x trailing P/E and 3.0x EV/EBITDA against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Real Estate Investment Trusts (Financials), ADAM carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can ADAM sustain or expand its — operating margin and 8.9% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $385.8M and free cash flow of $125.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ADAM's 4.1x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ADAM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Adamas Trust Inc. (ADAM) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ADAM Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ADAM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $5.73?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ADAM 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ADAM:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $8.57 (+31.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Strong cash generation, with FY 2025 FCF of $125.9M and a 19.42% FCF yield against a 4.4 trailing P/E.

Don't sleep on ADAM's setup in Financials. Strong cash generation, with FY 2025 FCF of $125.9M and a 19.42% FCF yield against a 4.4 trailing P/E.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (51/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@RiskArb_Desk Fair point on 4.4x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Real Estate Investment Trusts. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $5.04 (-22.9%)
Spot @ $6.54

Weak institutional positioning (4/20 whale flow) and a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 in an RQD verdict of Sell.

I respect the product at Adamas Trust Inc., but the stock at $6.54 is a different story. Weak institutional positioning (4/20 whale flow) and a Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 in an RQD verdict of Sell.. FCF yield is 19.42% and RQD sits at 51/100 (D) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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