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Stock Ratings / Financials / ADC / insiders
JAN (55) BRX (64) CTRE (62) RHP (75) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$68.48 +2.10% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $68.61

Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $8.91B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ADC Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ADC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Agree Realty Corporation (NYSE: ADC) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $68.48 (+2.10% 1D, market cap $8.91B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ADC ranks #330 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ADC compare to JAN and BRX in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ADC carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 43.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.5%. By comparison, JAN (Janus Living Inc. Class A-1) holds a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.4%, cap $8.83B) and BRX (Brixmor Property Group Inc.) posts a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 23.2x, ROIC 7.1%, cap $9.07B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BRX leads on earnings multiple (23.2x) while RHP leads on capital efficiency (16.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ADC?
▼

Per ADC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000917251), Agree Realty Corporation generated $718.4M in revenue (+16.4% YoY), $204.3M in net income, and $471.8M in free cash flow against $9.80B in total assets and $1.59B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 43x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $68.61 (+0.19%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 65.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510062
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk C+
Cash (14)Whales (7)SEC (15)Macro (12)CEO (14)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target
$86 Bull$70 Base$54 Bear
📬 FREE ADC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ADC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ADC SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 65.7% FCF Margin ($471.8M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
54
Grade C-$66.56+0.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
57
Grade C$67.07+0.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
59
Grade C$67.61+1.3% Next Q
Current
62
Grade C$68.48+0.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (54) → C (62)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ADC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, ADC faces multiple-compression risk if 43.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 43x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($68.17) or 200D SMA ($74.42) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($69.71) toward Bear Floor ($54.37).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ADC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ADC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 62%NO 38%Trade / Inspect Odds →
SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

ADC Smart-Money Thermometer: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →
▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (ADC)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on ADC. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ADC Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ADC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -9.84%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-04O $67.07H $68.48L $67.07C $68.48VOL 1.85M
RES: $87.87SUP: $62.87SMA50: $68.17SMA200: $74.42
$83.02$77.96$72.90$67.83$62.77RES $87.87SUP $62.87$68.482026-05-052026-06-222026-08-062026-09-222026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ADC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ADC Butterfly Map → + Track ADC →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
32.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +16.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ADC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ADC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ADC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ADC)

Financials Rank #330 of 1097 ⚔️ JAN vs ADC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ADC vs. JAN, BRX, CTRE, RHP)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) ranks #330 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #202 by equity capitalization ($8.91B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BRX leads on earnings valuation at 23.2x trailing P/E, while RHP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.3% ROIC and — gross margin. RHP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with ADC at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ADC ACTIVE
Agree Realty Corporation
C 62/100 43.0x — 3.5% +2.10% $8.91B Benchmark Subject
JAN
Janus Living Inc. Class A-1
D+ 55/100 — — 0.4% -0.24% $8.83B /jan-vs-adc →
BRX
Brixmor Property Group Inc.
C 64/100 23.2x — 7.1% +1.44% $9.07B /brx-vs-adc →
CTRE
CareTrust REIT Inc.
C 62/100 26.7x — 7.2% -0.69% $8.54B /ctre-vs-adc →
RHP
Ryman Hospitality Properties Inc.
B 75/100 38.2x — 16.3% +1.29% $9.31B /rhp-vs-adc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000917251 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) reported GAAP revenue of $718.4M (+16.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $617.1M , and +33.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $204.3M, operating cash flow of $504.1M, and free cash flow of $471.8M (+206.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, ADC closed FY2025 with $9.80B in total assets against $1.59B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $718.4M $204.3M $504.1M $471.8M $9.80B $1.59B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $617.1M $189.2M $432.0M -$442.5M $8.49B $1.34B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $537.5M $170.0M $391.6M $367.4M $4.84B $1.13B

3. ADC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ADC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Agree Realty Corporation (NYSE: ADC) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $68.48 (+2.10% 1D, market cap $8.91B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, ADC ranks #330 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ADC compare to JAN and BRX in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ADC carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 43.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.5%. By comparison, JAN (Janus Living Inc. Class A-1) holds a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.4%, cap $8.83B) and BRX (Brixmor Property Group Inc.) posts a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 23.2x, ROIC 7.1%, cap $9.07B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BRX leads on earnings multiple (23.2x) while RHP leads on capital efficiency (16.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ADC?

Per ADC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000917251), Agree Realty Corporation generated $718.4M in revenue (+16.4% YoY), $204.3M in net income, and $471.8M in free cash flow against $9.80B in total assets and $1.59B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 43x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ADC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ADC last traded at $68.48 (+2.10% on volume of 1,847,022 shares), positioning the stock +0.45% above its 50-day simple moving average ($68.17) and -7.98% below its 200-day simple moving average ($74.42). Across its 52-week range of $64.34 to $82.08, ADC sits at the 23.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.0% ($65.74 to $71.22).

Direct Sub-Reports: ADC RQD Cockpit ADC 12M Forecast ADC Earnings & Move ADC Dividends & DRIP ADC Insiders & 13F ADC Whale Options ADC Profit Sankey ADC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 62/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ADC — Agree Realty Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 62/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $68.48 (+2.10% 1D, market capitalization $8.91B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 3.5%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 47.4%, and free cash flow yield of 5.36%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (14/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 0.90x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Agree Realty Corporation is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Real Estate Investment Trusts industry. Per the market data, its gross margin is listed as 0%, operating margin 47.4%, and net margin 28.4%. Market capitalization is $8.8B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) reported $718.4M in annual revenue (up from $617.1M in FY2024, +16.4% YoY) and $204.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($537.5M revenue, $170.0M net income) through FY2025, ADC scaled operating cash flow to $504.1M and free cash flow to $471.8M, backed by $9.80B in total assets against $1.59B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 62/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $64.34 – $82.08 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Priced at 43x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Investors must weigh 43.0x trailing P/E and 27.9x EV/EBITDA against 47.4% operating margins and a 0.90x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Real Estate Investment Trusts (Financials), ADC carries a macro regime beta of 0.90 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can ADC sustain or expand its 47.4% operating margin and 3.5% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $718.4M and free cash flow of $471.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.59B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ADC's 36.1x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.90x)?

ADC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ADC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ADC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $68.48?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ADC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ADC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $85.85 (+28.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and 47.4% operating margin point to strong accounting quality and operating p

Picked up a starter position in ADC in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $67.07. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and 47.4% operating margin point to strong accounting quality and operating profitability.. Trading inside a $64.34–$82.08 52-week range with 5.36% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Real Estate Investment Trusts multiples expand this quarter.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@QuantViper Agree on the RQD 62/100 quality, though with 0.9 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $67.07 and keeping dry powder in case we test $62.38.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $53.66 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $67.07

Per the market data, a 43 trailing P/E and 27.9 EV/EBITDA sit against a 3.5% ROIC, leaving valuation vulnerable if returns do not impro

Fading this rally in ADC at $67.07. Per the market data, a 43 trailing P/E and 27.9 EV/EBITDA sit against a 3.5% ROIC, leaving valuation vulnerable if returns do not improve.. With a beta of 0.9 and the stock sitting at $67.07 (52-wk range $64.34–$82.08), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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