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Why ADCT Stock advanced +0.65% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$1.54 +0.65% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.54

ADC Therapeutics SA (ADCT) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 36/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $195.3M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ADCT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, ADC Therapeutics SA (NYSE: ADCT) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $1.54 (+0.65% 1D, market cap $195.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, ADCT ranks #568 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ADCT compare to AKBA and PRQR in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ADCT carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 92.9%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, AKBA (Akebia Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 85.0%, cap $195.8M) and PRQR (ProQR Therapeutics N.V.) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $196.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ADCT leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while AKBA leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ADCT?
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Per ADCT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001771910), ADC Therapeutics SA generated $81.4M in revenue (+14.9% YoY), -$142.6M in net income, and -$141.4M in free cash flow against $323.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.54 (-0.07%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510036
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E · Rk D
Cash (6)Whales (7)SEC (11)Macro (7)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.7% Base Target
$5 Bull$1 Base$1 Bear
📬 FREE ADCT RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ADCT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (36/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ADCT SCORES 36/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (31% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+7/20 pts (19% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
44
Grade D$1.86-22.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
41
Grade D$1.44+4.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
39
Grade E$1.51+2% Next Q
Current
36
Grade D-$1.54-8.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (44) → D- (36)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ADCT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ADCT currently carries a cautious 36/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.32) and Max Pain ($1.62) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $5.23.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ADCT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ADCT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 36%NO 64%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why ADCT Stock advanced +0.65% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

ADC Therapeutics SA (ADCT) advanced +0.65% to $1.54, trading at 18% of its 52-week range ($0.78 – $4.98). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 18% of its 52-week range ($0.78 – $4.98) with RSI-14 at 53.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $1.54 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 92.9% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live ADCT Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREYahoo • 5d ago
ADC Therapeutics Announces ZYNLONTA® Updates in Japan

ADC Therapeutics SA (NYSE: ADCT), a commercial-stage global leader and pioneer in the field of antibody drug conjugates (ADCs), today announced that its Japanese licensing partner, Tanabe Pharma Corporation (formerly Mit

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ADCT)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ADCT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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ADCT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -58.15%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $1.49H $1.54L $1.49C $1.54VOL 1.18M
RES: $1.96SUP: $1.13SMA50: $1.32SMA200: $2.47
$4.36$3.39$2.42$1.45$0.48RES $1.96SUP $1.13$1.542026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ADCT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ADCT Butterfly Map → + Track ADCT →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +14.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ADCT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ADCT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ADCT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ADCT)

Health Care Rank #568 of 1015 ⚔️ AKBA vs ADCT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ADCT vs. AKBA, PRQR, RNAC, UPB)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, ADC Therapeutics SA (ADCT) ranks #568 by composite RQD confidence (36/100, grade D-) and #576 by equity capitalization ($195.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ADCT leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while AKBA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 83.3% gross margin. AKBA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 49/100 (D) compared with ADCT at 36/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ADCT ACTIVE
ADC Therapeutics SA
D- 36/100 — 92.9% -35.0% +0.65% $195.3M Benchmark Subject
AKBA
Akebia Therapeutics Inc.
D 49/100 — 83.3% 85.0% +0.27% $195.8M /akba-vs-adct →
PRQR
ProQR Therapeutics N.V.
D 44/100 — — — -5.04% $196.2M /prqr-vs-adct →
RNAC
Cartesian Therapeutics Inc.
E 15/100 — — -35.0% -2.31% $196.4M /rnac-vs-adct →
UPB
Upstream Bio Inc.
E 29/100 — — -35.0% -1.76% $186.8M /upb-vs-adct →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001771910 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), ADC Therapeutics SA (ADCT) reported GAAP revenue of $81.4M (+14.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $70.8M , and +17.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$142.6M, operating cash flow of -$141.2M, and free cash flow of -$141.4M (-13.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, ADCT closed FY2025 with $323.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $81.4M -$142.6M -$141.2M -$141.4M $323.1M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $70.8M -$157.8M -$123.8M -$124.7M $322.0M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $69.1M -$240.1M -$118.7M -$118.7M — —

3. ADCT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ADCT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, ADC Therapeutics SA (NYSE: ADCT) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $1.54 (+0.65% 1D, market cap $195.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, ADCT ranks #568 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ADCT compare to AKBA and PRQR in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ADCT carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 92.9%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, AKBA (Akebia Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 85.0%, cap $195.8M) and PRQR (ProQR Therapeutics N.V.) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $196.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ADCT leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while AKBA leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ADCT?

Per ADCT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001771910), ADC Therapeutics SA generated $81.4M in revenue (+14.9% YoY), -$142.6M in net income, and -$141.4M in free cash flow against $323.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ADCT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ADCT last traded at $1.54 (+0.65% on volume of 1,071,508 shares), positioning the stock +16.67% above its 50-day simple moving average ($1.32) and -37.65% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.47). Across its 52-week range of $0.78 to $4.98, ADCT sits at the 18.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.35 to $1.73).

Direct Sub-Reports: ADCT RQD Cockpit ADCT 12M Forecast ADCT Earnings & Move ADCT Dividends & DRIP ADCT Insiders & 13F ADCT Whale Options ADCT Profit Sankey ADCT News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 36/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ADCT — ADC Therapeutics SA: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

ADC Therapeutics SA (ADCT) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 36/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $1.54 (+0.65% 1D, market capitalization $195.3M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (6/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of 92.9%, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

ADC Therapeutics SA is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry (per the company profile). The profile does not describe its products, customers, or revenue model. The company reported revenue of $81.4M for FY 2025, $70.8M for FY 2024, and $69.1M for FY 2023. Per the market data, gross margin is 92.9%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), ADC Therapeutics SA (ADCT) reported $81.4M in annual revenue (up from $70.8M in FY2024, +14.9% YoY) and -$142.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($69.1M revenue, -$240.1M net income) through FY2025, ADCT scaled operating cash flow to -$141.2M and free cash flow to -$141.4M, backed by $323.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 36/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 6/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $0.78 – $4.98 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The only sector-level information is the classification as Health Care / Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations, and the beta of 1.0 per the market data.

  • Key Question #1: Can ADCT sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $81.4M and free cash flow of -$141.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ADCT's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ADCT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for ADC Therapeutics SA (ADCT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ADCT Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ADCT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $1.54?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ADCT 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ADCT:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $1.96 (+28.1%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Shares rose after a financial restructuring that the news feed reports extended the cash runway, with reported cash of $261.3M at FY 20

Picked up a starter position in ADCT in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $1.53. Shares rose after a financial restructuring that the news feed reports extended the cash runway, with reported cash of $261.3M at FY 2025 and a gross margin of 92.9%.. Trading inside a $0.78–$4.98 52-week range with 0.0% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations multiples expand this quarter.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@FadeTheHype Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. If gross margin (92.9%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.24 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $1.53

Operating margin of -60%, ROIC of -35%, and negative free cash flow in every reported year, with the RQD cash-engine and institutional-

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on ADCT: Operating margin of -60%, ROIC of -35%, and negative free cash flow in every reported year, with the RQD cash-engine and institutional-flow pillars scoring 6/20 and 3/20.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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