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Why ADV Stock surged +5.99% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$32.04 +5.99% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $32.32

Advantage Solutions Inc. (Class A) (ADV) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 33/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $387.6M
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ADV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Advantage Solutions Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: ADV) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 33/100 at a spot price of $32.04 (+5.99% 1D, market cap $387.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ADV ranks #826 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ADV compare to CTEV and RPAY in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Business Services), ADV carries a Roarable E (33/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -5.1%. By comparison, CTEV (Claritev Corporation (Class A)) holds a E grade (23/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 85.0%, cap $406.7M) and RPAY (Repay Holdings Corporation (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -31.0%, cap $411.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, RMNI leads on earnings multiple (10.0x) while CTEV leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ADV?
▼

Per ADV's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001776661), Advantage Solutions Inc. (Class A) generated $3.54B in revenue (-0.7% YoY), -$227.7M in net income, and $55.1M in free cash flow against $2.79B in total assets and $1.66B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $32.33 (+0.89%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 1.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (33/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510033
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- · Rk E
Cash (5)Whales (8)SEC (6)Macro (5)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-11.2% Base Target
$50 Bull$28 Base$22 Bear
📬 FREE ADV RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ADV)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (33/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ADV SCORES 33/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+9/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 45% Net Buy • Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+8/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (51.5) create a -15 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
25
Grade E$31.05-8.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
28
Grade E$28.30+1.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
30
Grade E$28.61+12% Next Q
Current
33
Grade E$32.04-8.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (25) → E (33)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ADV Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ADV currently carries a cautious 33/100 (E) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($30.88) and Max Pain ($33.64) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $49.82.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ADV• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ADV Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 33%NO 67%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why ADV Stock surged +5.99% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Advantage Solutions Inc. (Class A) (ADV) surged +5.99% to $32.04, trading at 56% of its 52-week range ($12.23 – $47.45). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-5% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 56% of its 52-week range ($12.23 – $47.45) with RSI-14 at 51.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $32.04 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable E (Strong Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $55.1M annual free cash flow.
Live ADV Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ADV)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ADV's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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ADV // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -12.53%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-03O $30.36H $32.04L $30.23C $32.04VOL 58.2K
RES: $30.97SUP: $27.84SMA50: $30.88SMA200: $30.33
$49.23$41.87$34.51$27.15$19.80RES $30.97SUP $27.84$32.042026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ADV Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ADV Butterfly Map → + Track ADV →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -0.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ADV today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ADV. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ADV today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ADV)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #826 of 1009 ⚔️ CTEV vs ADV Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ADV vs. CTEV, RPAY, RMNI, FVRR)

Industry: Business Services (88 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Advantage Solutions Inc. (Class A) (ADV) ranks #826 by composite RQD confidence (33/100, grade E) and #616 by equity capitalization ($387.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, RMNI leads on earnings valuation at 10.0x trailing P/E, while CTEV leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. RMNI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with ADV at 33/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ADV ACTIVE
Advantage Solutions Inc. (Class A)
E 33/100 — — -5.1% +5.99% $387.6M Benchmark Subject
CTEV
Claritev Corporation (Class A)
E 23/100 — — 85.0% -4.50% $406.7M /ctev-vs-adv →
RPAY
Repay Holdings Corporation (Class A)
D+ 52/100 — 75.0% -31.0% +2.62% $411.6M /rpay-vs-adv →
RMNI
Rimini Street Inc.
C+ 69/100 10.0x 60.4% 85.0% -1.61% $459.8M /rmni-vs-adv →
FVRR
Fiverr International Ltd. no par value
D- 43/100 15.5x 81.6% -0.3% +3.10% $301.6M /fvrr-vs-adv →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001776661 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Advantage Solutions Inc. (Class A) (ADV) reported GAAP revenue of $3.54B (-0.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.57B , and -9.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$227.7M, operating cash flow of $61.5M, and free cash flow of $55.1M (-35.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, ADV closed FY2025 with $2.79B in total assets against $1.66B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $3.54B -$227.7M $61.5M $55.1M $2.79B $1.66B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $3.57B -$327.0M $93.1M $85.3M $3.11B $1.69B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $3.90B -$63.3M $228.5M $228.5M — —

3. ADV Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ADV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Advantage Solutions Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: ADV) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 33/100 at a spot price of $32.04 (+5.99% 1D, market cap $387.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ADV ranks #826 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ADV compare to CTEV and RPAY in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Business Services), ADV carries a Roarable E (33/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -5.1%. By comparison, CTEV (Claritev Corporation (Class A)) holds a E grade (23/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 85.0%, cap $406.7M) and RPAY (Repay Holdings Corporation (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -31.0%, cap $411.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, RMNI leads on earnings multiple (10.0x) while CTEV leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ADV?

Per ADV's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001776661), Advantage Solutions Inc. (Class A) generated $3.54B in revenue (-0.7% YoY), -$227.7M in net income, and $55.1M in free cash flow against $2.79B in total assets and $1.66B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ADV trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ADV last traded at $32.04 (+5.99% on volume of 101,555 shares), positioning the stock +3.76% above its 50-day simple moving average ($30.88) and +5.64% above its 200-day simple moving average ($30.33). Across its 52-week range of $12.23 to $47.45, ADV sits at the 56.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($28.04 to $36.04).

Direct Sub-Reports: ADV RQD Cockpit ADV 12M Forecast ADV Earnings & Move ADV Dividends & DRIP ADV Insiders & 13F ADV Whale Options ADV Profit Sankey ADV News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 33/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ADV — Advantage Solutions Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Advantage Solutions Inc. (Class A) (ADV) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 33/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $32.04 (+5.99% 1D, market capitalization $387.6M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (5/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -5.1%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -3.6%, and free cash flow yield of 14.14%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (6/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.20, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 3.00x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Advantage Solutions Inc. (Class A) is a NASDAQ-listed company in the Consumer Discretionary sector, Business Services industry (per the company profile). The profile identifies the company's market capitalization as $0.4B. Its products, customers, and revenue model are not described in the source data.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Advantage Solutions Inc. (Class A) (ADV) reported $3.54B in annual revenue (up from $3.57B in FY2024, -0.7% YoY) and -$227.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($3.90B revenue, -$63.3M net income) through FY2025, ADV scaled operating cash flow to $61.5M and free cash flow to $55.1M, backed by $2.79B in total assets against $1.66B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 33/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 14.14% and institutional whale pillar of 8/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 5/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $12.23 – $47.45 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -3.6% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The sector is listed as Consumer Discretionary and the industry as Business Services, but no correlated instruments are identified.

  • Key Question #1: Can ADV sustain or expand its -3.6% operating margin and -5.1% ROIC against Business Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $3.54B and free cash flow of $55.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.66B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ADV's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ADV Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Advantage Solutions Inc. (Class A) (ADV) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ADV Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ADV Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $32.04?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ADV 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ADV:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $39.00 (+29.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The 14.14% FCF yield signals strong reported cash generation relative to the $389.3M market capitalization.

The street is overcomplicating Advantage Solutions Inc. (Class A) (ADV). The 14.14% FCF yield signals strong reported cash generation relative to the $389.3M market capitalization.. With an RQD score of 33/100 (E) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 6/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $32.65.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@MacroHawk_NYC Agree on the RQD 33/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $30.23 and keeping dry powder in case we test $28.11.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $22.67 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $30.23

A 0.2 Altman Z-Score alongside $1.66B of debt against $240.8M of cash points to significant balance-sheet distress risk.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short ADV above $30.23. A 0.2 Altman Z-Score alongside $1.66B of debt against $240.8M of cash points to significant balance-sheet distress risk.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (5/20) and FCF yield (14.14%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $47.45.

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