Why AEON Stock dropped -6.80% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$0.27 -6.80% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.27

AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A) (AEON) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $16.2M
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AEON stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: AEON) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $0.27 (-6.80% 1D, market cap $16.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AEON ranks #345 in composite RQD confidence.

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🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AEON compare to MRKR and NEUP in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AEON carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, MRKR (Marker Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $16.3M) and NEUP (Neuphoria Therapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -11.8%, cap $16.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AEON leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while NEUP leads on capital efficiency (-11.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AEON?
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Per AEON's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001837607), AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A) generated $0 in revenue, -$39.2M in net income, and -$17.3M in free cash flow against $5.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.27 (-1.41%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510046
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Cash (9)Whales (12)SEC (10)Macro (10)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.7% Base Target
$2 Bull$0 Base$0 Bear
📬 FREE AEON RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AEON)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AEON SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (26% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 1/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
38
Grade E$0.23+0% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
41
Grade D$0.23+8.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
43
Grade D$0.25+8% Next Q
Current
46
Grade D$0.27-6.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (38) → D (46)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AEON Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AEON currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($0.26) and Max Pain ($0.28) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $1.52.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AEON• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AEON Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why AEON Stock dropped -6.80% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A) (AEON) dropped -6.80% to $0.27, trading at 7% of its 52-week range ($0.18 – $1.45). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 7% of its 52-week range ($0.18 – $1.45) with RSI-14 at 52.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $0.27 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live AEON Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREYahoo Finance • 1d ago
Stock Splits Calendar for:

Yahoo Finance report covering AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A) (AEON) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AEON)

  • ✓Walkthrough of AEON's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AEON // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -71.58%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $0.29H $0.29L $0.27C $0.27VOL 774.6K
RES: $0.47SUP: $0.23SMA50: $0.26SMA200: $0.67
$1.10$0.85$0.60$0.35$0.10RES $0.47SUP $0.23$0.272026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AEON Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AEON today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AEON. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AEON today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AEON)

Health Care Rank #345 of 1016 ⚔️ MRKR vs AEON Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AEON vs. MRKR, NEUP, RADX, KPTI)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A) (AEON) ranks #345 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #847 by equity capitalization ($16.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AEON leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while NEUP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -11.8% ROIC and — gross margin. AEON currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 46/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AEON ACTIVE
AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A)
D 46/100 — — -35.0% -6.80% $16.2M Benchmark Subject
MRKR
Marker Therapeutics Inc.
D- 35/100 — — -35.0% -2.97% $16.3M /mrkr-vs-aeon →
NEUP
Neuphoria Therapeutics Inc.
E 31/100 — — -11.8% -0.33% $16.5M /neup-vs-aeon →
RADX
Radiopharm Theranostics Limited
D 46/100 — — — -3.26% $15.6M /radx-vs-aeon →
KPTI
Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc.
E 29/100 — — -35.0% -24.76% $15.0M /kpti-vs-aeon →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001837607

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A) (AEON) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$39.2M, operating cash flow of -$17.3M, and free cash flow of -$17.3M (+14.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, AEON closed FY2025 with $5.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $0 -$39.2M -$17.3M -$17.3M $5.6M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $0 $42.0M -$20.3M -$20.3M $3.1M —

3. AEON Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AEON stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: AEON) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $0.27 (-6.80% 1D, market cap $16.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AEON ranks #345 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AEON compare to MRKR and NEUP in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AEON carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, MRKR (Marker Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $16.3M) and NEUP (Neuphoria Therapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -11.8%, cap $16.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AEON leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while NEUP leads on capital efficiency (-11.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AEON?

Per AEON's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001837607), AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A) generated $0 in revenue, -$39.2M in net income, and -$17.3M in free cash flow against $5.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AEON trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AEON last traded at $0.27 (-6.80% on volume of 774,566 shares), positioning the stock +3.85% above its 50-day simple moving average ($0.26) and -59.70% below its 200-day simple moving average ($0.67). Across its 52-week range of $0.18 to $1.45, AEON sits at the 7.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.30).

AEON Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Why is AEON stock moving today?

Why AEON Stock dropped -6.80% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 46/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

AEON — AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:50:15Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, AEON carries an RQD Score of 48 with a letter grade of D, labeled "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are scored as follows:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 9 / 20 (ROIC -35%; FCF yield 0%). This is the weakest economic signal: the company is not generating returns on capital or free cash flow in the source data.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 14 / 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning). This is a moderate score; the source does not provide holder detail to explain it (see Analyst View & Smart Money Ownership).
  • Insider Conviction: 5 / 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow). This is the lowest pillar score, indicating weak insider conviction signals.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 10 / 20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity). A beta of 1.0 means the stock moves in line with the market per the source data, which provides no defensive cushion.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 10 / 20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 1/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). The Piotroski F-Score of 1 out of 9 is a notably weak reading for a financial-quality check.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the rating frames a cautious setting: the cash-generation and insider pillars are weak, and the forensic balance-sheet score does not offset them. Upside drivers in the data are limited to the moderate whale-flow pillar and the 11.36% price change in the market data; the valuation tradeoff is that the stock trades at $0.29 with a market capitalization of $17.4M and no earnings-based multiples available in the source data. Educational context only, not personalized advice.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$0.0M$-12.8M$-39.2MN/A$-17.3M$3.0MN/A
FY 2024$0.0M$73.0M$42.0MN/A$-20.3M$0.0MN/A

Per the SEC financials, FY 2025 shows an operating loss of $-12.8M and a net loss of $-39.2M, while FY 2024 shows positive operating income of $73.0M and net income of $42.0M, with free cash flow negative in both years. Per the market data, gross, operating, and net margins are each 0%, and ROIC is -35%. The Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 1 out of 9, both per the Roarable RQD rating's forensic pillar. Debt/Equity is 0.5 per the same source, while the financials table lists cash of $3.0M and debt as N/A for FY 2025.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts feed, the headlines are tagged MARKET WIRE with YELLOW light signals and include: a Yahoo Finance UK seasonal returns chart; a TradingView estimates item; a report of an inducement grant under NYSE American LLC Company Guide Section 711; a Form DEF 14A proxy filing for a 26 October meeting; a Yahoo Finance stock-splits calendar entry; and a TradingView item on an ABP-450 biosimilar plan that targets a Q4 2026 IND. The summaries are generic market-coverage descriptions and do not contain substantive detail beyond the headlines. Risk watch items per the feed include the proxy filing and the inducement grant. The Butterfly supply-chain graph reports no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What is the source of the $0.0B market-capitalization figure in the profile versus the $17.4M figure in the market data?
  • What products or clinical programs generate the company's activity, and what is the status of the ABP-450 biosimilar plan?
  • Why is reported debt listed as N/A while Debt/Equity is cited as 0.5 in the forensic pillar?
  • What drove the swing from FY 2024 net income of $42.0M to FY 2025 net loss of $-39.2M, given revenue of $0.0M in both periods?
  • What are the specific insider, 13F holder, and analyst details underlying the RQD pillar scores?

AEON Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A) (AEON) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AEON Debate Forum (3) ↓
🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago
Stock Splits Calendar for:

Yahoo Finance report covering AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A) (AEON) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AEON Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $0.27?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AEON 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AEON:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $0.31 (+6.9%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is AEON (D • RQD 48/100) a Buy at $0.29?

Welcome to the AEON (AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A)) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 48/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.23 (-20.7%)
Spot @ $0.29

Pump the brakes on AEON — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on AEON, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A) expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $0.36 (+24.1%)
Spot @ $0.29

AEON cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on AEON, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $0.29 (52-wk range $0.18 - $1.45), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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