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SYF (69) SOFI (32) EFX (71) CRCL (44) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$73.58 +0.15% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $73.46

Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- β€’ HOLD / WATCH Cap $24.90B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AFRM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Affirm Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: AFRM) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $73.58 (+0.15% 1D, market cap $24.90B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, AFRM ranks #404 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AFRM compare to SYF and SOFI in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), AFRM carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -1.2%. By comparison, SYF (Synchrony Financial) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 6.7x, ROIC 7.6%, cap $23.46B) and SOFI (SoFi Technologies Inc.) posts a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E 47.3x, ROIC 2.1%, cap $21.65B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SYF leads on earnings multiple (6.7x) while EFX leads on capital efficiency (10.2% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AFRM?
β–Ό

Per AFRM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001820953), Affirm Holdings Inc. generated $1.11B in revenue (+34.9% YoY), $52.2M in net income, and $601.7M in free cash flow against $12.96B in total assets and $4.23B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $73.46 (-0.16%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) β€’ 54% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 53.1% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH β€’ C-
025507510059
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C- Β· Rk D+
Cash (13)Whales (13)SEC (15)Macro (8)CEO (10)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.4% Base Target
$95 Bull$74 Base$58 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE AFRM RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AFRM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±10%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY AFRM SCORES 59/100 (C-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 8/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 54% FCF Margin ($601.7M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (50) create a -12 pt regime headwind

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
51
Grade C-$70.51+4.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
54
Grade C-$73.51-0.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
56
Grade C$73.32+0.4% Next Q
Current
59
Grade C-$73.58+0.2% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C- (51) β†’ C- (59)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AFRM Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, AFRM faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($72.91) or 200D SMA ($66.55) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($73.91) toward Bear Floor ($57.65).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AFRMβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œAFRM Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±10%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (AFRM)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for AFRM.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating AFRM & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • βœ“Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on AFRM
  • βœ“How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
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AFRM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +9.69%β–² ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $74.84H $74.84L $73.47C $73.58VOL 2.92M
RES: $95.79SUP: $68.90SMA50: $72.91SMA200: $66.55
$93.11$82.06$71.00$59.95$48.90RES $95.79SUP $68.90$73.582026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AFRM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ AFRM Butterfly Map β†’ + Track AFRM β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +34.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AFRM today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AFRM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AFRM today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AFRM)

Financials Rank #404 of 1097 βš”οΈ SYF vs AFRM Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (AFRM vs. SYF, SOFI, EFX, CRCL)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM) ranks #404 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #105 by equity capitalization ($24.90B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SYF leads on earnings valuation at 6.7x trailing P/E, while EFX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.2% ROIC and β€” gross margin. EFX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with AFRM at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AFRM ACTIVE
Affirm Holdings Inc.
C- 59/100 β€” β€” -1.2% +0.15% $24.90B Benchmark Subject
SYF
Synchrony Financial
C+ 69/100 6.7x β€” 7.6% +1.95% $23.46B /syf-vs-afrm β†’
SOFI
SoFi Technologies Inc.
E 32/100 47.3x β€” 2.1% -0.95% $21.65B /sofi-vs-afrm β†’
EFX
Equifax Inc.
B- 71/100 31.8x β€” 10.2% +4.29% $21.60B /efx-vs-afrm β†’
CRCL
Circle Internet Group Inc.
D 44/100 β€” β€” -0.2% -0.63% $18.42B /crcl-vs-afrm β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-06-30 β€’ CIK 0001820953 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM) reported GAAP revenue of $1.11B (+34.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $826.0M , and +77.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $52.2M, operating cash flow of $793.9M, and free cash flow of $601.7M (+106.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, AFRM closed FY2025 with $12.96B in total assets against $4.23B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-06-30 $1.11B $52.2M $793.9M $601.7M $12.96B $4.23B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-06-30 $826.0M -$517.8M $450.1M $290.8M $10.48B $3.46B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-06-30 $626.9M -$985.3M $12.2M -$16.0M $13.95B $3.26B

3. AFRM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AFRM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Affirm Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: AFRM) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $73.58 (+0.15% 1D, market cap $24.90B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, AFRM ranks #404 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AFRM compare to SYF and SOFI in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), AFRM carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -1.2%. By comparison, SYF (Synchrony Financial) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 6.7x, ROIC 7.6%, cap $23.46B) and SOFI (SoFi Technologies Inc.) posts a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E 47.3x, ROIC 2.1%, cap $21.65B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SYF leads on earnings multiple (6.7x) while EFX leads on capital efficiency (10.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AFRM?

Per AFRM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001820953), Affirm Holdings Inc. generated $1.11B in revenue (+34.9% YoY), $52.2M in net income, and $601.7M in free cash flow against $12.96B in total assets and $4.23B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AFRM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AFRM last traded at $73.58 (+0.15% on volume of 3,917,551 shares), positioning the stock +0.92% above its 50-day simple moving average ($72.91) and +10.56% above its 200-day simple moving average ($66.55). Across its 52-week range of $42.10 to $90.44, AFRM sits at the 65.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±10.0% ($66.22 to $80.94).

Direct Sub-Reports: AFRM RQD Cockpit AFRM 12M Forecast AFRM Earnings & Move AFRM Dividends & DRIP AFRM Insiders & 13F AFRM Whale Options AFRM Profit Sankey AFRM News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 59/100 (C-) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AFRM β€” Affirm Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-06-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 59/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $73.58 (+0.15% 1D, market capitalization $24.90B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -1.2%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of -7.8%, and free cash flow yield of 2.37%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (10/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 0.96x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Affirm Holdings Inc. Is listed on NASDAQ under the ticker AFRM..

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-06-30), Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM) reported $1.11B in annual revenue (up from $826.0M in FY2024, +34.9% YoY) and $52.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($626.9M revenue, -$985.3M net income) through FY2025, AFRM scaled operating cash flow to $793.9M and free cash flow to $601.7M, backed by $12.96B in total assets against $4.23B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (C- β€’ RQD 59/100): Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Free cash flow yield of 2.37% and institutional whale pillar of 13/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $42.10 – $90.44 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -7.8% operating margins and a 0.96x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source therefore does not establish upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks for AFRM. The only sector context available is the Financials classification and the Finance: Consumer Services industry. An investor should treat the absence of mapped ripples as a data gap rather than evidence of insulation.

  • Key Question #1: Can AFRM sustain or expand its -7.8% operating margin and -1.2% ROIC against Finance: Consumer Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.11B and free cash flow of $601.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $4.23B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is AFRM's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.96x)?

AFRM Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Affirm Holdings Inc. (AFRM) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to AFRM Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AFRM Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $73.58?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AFRM 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AFRM:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Verified $100K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $84.49 (+15.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Forensic balance sheet scores 15/20 with Piotroski F 8/9 and Debt/Equity 0.5, and FY 2025 net income turned positive at $52.2M on reven

Forensic balance sheet scores 15/20 with Piotroski F 8/9 and Debt/Equity 0.5, and FY 2025 net income turned positive at $52.2M on revenue of $1.11B.. When you look under the hood at AFRM, Fundamental Cash Engine is 13/20 with 0.0% gross margins and -1.2% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (13/20) has been quietly accumulating below $90.44. My 12M target is $84.49.

CapAlloc_Nerd πŸ‚ BULL

@ForensicBear Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Finance: Consumer Services. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $57.31 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $73.47

ROIC is -1.2%, operating income was -$87.3M in FY 2025, and insider conviction scores only 10/20 against a debt load of $4.23B.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on AFRM: ROIC is -1.2%, operating income was -$87.3M in FY 2025, and insider conviction scores only 10/20 against a debt load of $4.23B.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Finance: Consumer Services triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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