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Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AGIO) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$29.95 -1.96% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.79

Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AGIO) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 35/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $1.82B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AGIO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: AGIO) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $29.95 (-1.96% 1D, market cap $1.82B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, AGIO ranks #589 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AGIO compare to ADRX and ZBIO in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AGIO carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 88.3%, and ROIC of -33.8%. By comparison, ADRX (ADARx Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.82B) and ZBIO (Zenas BioPharma Inc.) posts a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.85B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AGIO leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while AGIO leads on capital efficiency (-33.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AGIO?
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Per AGIO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001439222), Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $54.0M in revenue (+48.0% YoY), -$413.0M in net income, and -$377.3M in free cash flow against $1.30B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.79 (-0.54%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510035
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (9)Whales (6)SEC (14)Macro (3)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.4% Base Target
$48 Bull$27 Base$21 Bear
📬 FREE AGIO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AGIO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (35/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AGIO SCORES 35/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (40% of score)

Altman Z-Score 11.84 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 88.3% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
43
Grade D$30.21+21.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
40
Grade D$36.64+3.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
38
Grade E$38.03-21.2% Next Q
Current
35
Grade D-$29.95-8.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (43) → D- (35)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AGIO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AGIO currently carries a cautious 35/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($33.67) and Max Pain ($31.45) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $48.30.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AGIO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AGIO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 35%NO 65%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your AGIO Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $29.95: 333.9 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $20.94
$6,992
$-3,008 (-30.1%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $26.85
$8,965
$-1,035 (-10.4%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $48.30
$16,127
+$6,127 (+61.3%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$2874%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$4569%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$2458%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AGIO)

  • ✓Walkthrough of AGIO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AGIO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +8.67%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $37.23H $37.23L $29.95C $29.95VOL 3.09M
RES: $38.85SUP: $29.82SMA50: $33.67SMA200: $31.76
$45.33$40.21$35.09$29.97$24.85RES $38.85SUP $29.82$29.952026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AGIO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AGIO Butterfly Map → + Track AGIO →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +48.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AGIO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AGIO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AGIO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AGIO)

Health Care Rank #589 of 1015 ⚔️ ADRX vs AGIO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AGIO vs. ADRX, ZBIO, GENB, TRAX)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AGIO) ranks #589 by composite RQD confidence (35/100, grade D-) and #271 by equity capitalization ($1.82B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AGIO leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while AGIO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -33.8% ROIC and 88.3% gross margin. GENB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 52/100 (D+) compared with AGIO at 35/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AGIO ACTIVE
Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D- 35/100 — 88.3% -33.8% -1.96% $1.82B Benchmark Subject
ADRX
ADARx Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D 48/100 — — — -7.29% $1.82B /adrx-vs-agio →
ZBIO
Zenas BioPharma Inc.
D- 38/100 — — -35.0% -2.71% $1.85B /zbio-vs-agio →
GENB
Generate Biomedicines Inc.
D+ 52/100 — — — -8.64% $1.86B /genb-vs-agio →
TRAX
First Tracks Biotherapeutics Inc.
D 44/100 — — -35.0% -0.07% $1.89B /trax-vs-agio →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001439222 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AGIO) reported GAAP revenue of $54.0M (+48.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $36.5M , and +101.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$413.0M, operating cash flow of -$373.0M, and free cash flow of -$377.3M (+3.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, AGIO closed FY2025 with $1.30B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 11.84, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $54.0M -$413.0M -$373.0M -$377.3M $1.30B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $36.5M $674.0M -$389.8M -$391.5M $1.66B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $26.8M -$352.0M -$296.1M -$296.1M — —

3. AGIO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AGIO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: AGIO) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $29.95 (-1.96% 1D, market cap $1.82B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, AGIO ranks #589 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AGIO compare to ADRX and ZBIO in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AGIO carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 88.3%, and ROIC of -33.8%. By comparison, ADRX (ADARx Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.82B) and ZBIO (Zenas BioPharma Inc.) posts a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.85B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AGIO leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while AGIO leads on capital efficiency (-33.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AGIO?

Per AGIO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001439222), Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $54.0M in revenue (+48.0% YoY), -$413.0M in net income, and -$377.3M in free cash flow against $1.30B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AGIO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AGIO last traded at $29.95 (-1.96% on volume of 1,912,701 shares), positioning the stock -11.05% below its 50-day simple moving average ($33.67) and -5.70% below its 200-day simple moving average ($31.76). Across its 52-week range of $22.24 to $46.00, AGIO sits at the 32.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.7% ($26.45 to $33.45).

Direct Sub-Reports: AGIO RQD Cockpit AGIO 12M Forecast AGIO Earnings & Move AGIO Dividends & DRIP AGIO Insiders & 13F AGIO Whale Options AGIO Profit Sankey AGIO News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 35/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AGIO — Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AGIO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 35/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $29.95 (-1.96% 1D, market capitalization $1.82B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -33.8%, gross margin of 88.3%, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of -16.97%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (3/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 11.84, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. The market capitalization is $2.2B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AGIO) reported $54.0M in annual revenue (up from $36.5M in FY2024, +48.0% YoY) and -$413.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($26.8M revenue, -$352.0M net income) through FY2025, AGIO scaled operating cash flow to -$373.0M and free cash flow to -$377.3M, backed by $1.30B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 35/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -16.97% and institutional whale pillar of 6/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $22.24 – $46.00 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source data therefore does not establish any upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or 2nd-order bottlenecks.

  • Key Question #1: Can AGIO sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -33.8% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $54.0M and free cash flow of -$377.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is AGIO's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

AGIO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Agios Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AGIO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AGIO Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AGIO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $29.95?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AGIO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AGIO:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $36.35 (+19.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The Forensic Balance Sheet pillar scores 14 of 20 with an Altman Z of 11.84, indicating financial resilience despite cash burn.

Don't sleep on AGIO's setup in Health Care. The Forensic Balance Sheet pillar scores 14 of 20 with an Altman Z of 11.84, indicating financial resilience despite cash burn.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (35/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@FadeTheHype Shorting a 6/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $30.55 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Health Care.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $23.22 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $30.55

Free cash flow was -$377.3M in FY 2025 with an FCF yield of -16.97% and an ROIC of -33.8%, while the Insider Conviction pillar scores o

Fading this rally in AGIO at $30.55. Free cash flow was -$377.3M in FY 2025 with an FCF yield of -16.97% and an ROIC of -33.8%, while the Insider Conviction pillar scores only 3 of 20.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $30.55 (52-wk range $22.24–$46.00), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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