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Akebia Therapeutics Inc. (AKBA) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$0.71 +0.27% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.71

Akebia Therapeutics Inc. (AKBA) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 49/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $196.3M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AKBA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Akebia Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: AKBA) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $0.71 (+0.27% 1D, market cap $196.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, AKBA ranks #278 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AKBA compare to ADCT and INO in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AKBA carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 83.3%, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, ADCT (ADC Therapeutics SA) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $196.6M) and INO (Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc.) posts a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $195.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AKBA leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while AKBA leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AKBA?
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Per AKBA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001517022), Akebia Therapeutics Inc. generated $236.2M in revenue (+47.5% YoY), -$5.3M in net income, and $67.7M in free cash flow against $376.6M in total assets and $48.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (83.3% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.71 (-0.14%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 28.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510049
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk D-
Cash (15)Whales (8)SEC (10)Macro (6)CEO (10)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.2% Base Target
$2 Bull$1 Base$1 Bear
📬 FREE AKBA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AKBA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (49/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AKBA SCORES 49/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (31% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 28.7% FCF Margin ($67.7M FCF) & 83.3% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (20% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (45.2) create a -14 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
57
Grade C$0.77-19.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
54
Grade C-$0.62+6.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
52
Grade C-$0.66+7.6% Next Q
Current
49
Grade D$0.71-5.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (57) → D (49)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AKBA Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AKBA currently carries a cautious 49/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Strong cash generator (83.3% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($0.84) and Max Pain ($0.75) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $2.33.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AKBA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AKBA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 49%NO 51%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your AKBA Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $0.71: 14084.5 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $0.53
$7,465
$-2,535 (-25.4%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $0.68
$9,577
$-423 (-4.2%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $2.33
$32,817
+$22,817 (+228.2%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$174%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$269%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$158%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AKBA)

  • ✓Walkthrough of AKBA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AKBA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -51.03%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-04O $0.71H $0.71L $0.71C $0.71VOL 4.82M
RES: $0.77SUP: $0.47SMA50: $0.84SMA200: $1.14
$2.19$1.74$1.29$0.85$0.40RES $0.77SUP $0.47$0.712026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-182026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AKBA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AKBA Butterfly Map → + Track AKBA →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-12.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +47.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AKBA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AKBA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AKBA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AKBA)

Health Care Rank #278 of 1015 ⚔️ ADCT vs AKBA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AKBA vs. ADCT, INO, TRDA, RNAC)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Akebia Therapeutics Inc. (AKBA) ranks #278 by composite RQD confidence (49/100, grade D) and #575 by equity capitalization ($196.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AKBA leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while AKBA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 83.3% gross margin. AKBA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 49/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AKBA ACTIVE
Akebia Therapeutics Inc.
D 49/100 — 83.3% 85.0% +0.27% $196.3M Benchmark Subject
ADCT
ADC Therapeutics SA
D- 36/100 — 92.9% -35.0% +0.65% $196.6M /adct-vs-akba →
INO
Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc.
E 24/100 — — -35.0% +213.75% $195.4M /ino-vs-akba →
TRDA
Entrada Therapeutics Inc.
E 16/100 — — -35.0% +12.68% $199.0M /trda-vs-akba →
RNAC
Cartesian Therapeutics Inc.
E 15/100 — — -35.0% -2.31% $191.8M /rnac-vs-akba →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001517022 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Akebia Therapeutics Inc. (AKBA) reported GAAP revenue of $236.2M (+47.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $160.2M , and +21.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$5.3M, operating cash flow of $68.0M, and free cash flow of $67.7M (+266.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, AKBA closed FY2025 with $376.6M in total assets against $48.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $236.2M -$5.3M $68.0M $67.7M $376.6M $48.3M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $160.2M -$69.4M -$40.7M -$40.7M $220.7M $38.7M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $194.6M -$51.9M -$23.4M -$23.4M — —

3. AKBA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AKBA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Akebia Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: AKBA) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $0.71 (+0.27% 1D, market cap $196.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, AKBA ranks #278 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AKBA compare to ADCT and INO in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AKBA carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 83.3%, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, ADCT (ADC Therapeutics SA) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $196.6M) and INO (Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc.) posts a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $195.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AKBA leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while AKBA leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AKBA?

Per AKBA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001517022), Akebia Therapeutics Inc. generated $236.2M in revenue (+47.5% YoY), -$5.3M in net income, and $67.7M in free cash flow against $376.6M in total assets and $48.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (83.3% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AKBA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AKBA last traded at $0.71 (+0.27% on volume of 4,824,592 shares), positioning the stock -15.48% below its 50-day simple moving average ($0.84) and -37.72% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.14). Across its 52-week range of $0.54 to $2.22, AKBA sits at the 10.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.80).

Direct Sub-Reports: AKBA RQD Cockpit AKBA 12M Forecast AKBA Earnings & Move AKBA Dividends & DRIP AKBA Insiders & 13F AKBA Whale Options AKBA Profit Sankey AKBA News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 49/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AKBA — Akebia Therapeutics Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Akebia Therapeutics Inc. (AKBA) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 49/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $0.71 (+0.27% 1D, market capitalization $196.3M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 85.0%, gross margin of 83.3%, operating margin of 9.9%, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (10/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.20, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 1.48x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Akebia Therapeutics Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. The profile identifies the company's market capitalization as $0.2B.3%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Akebia Therapeutics Inc. (AKBA) reported $236.2M in annual revenue (up from $160.2M in FY2024, +47.5% YoY) and -$5.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($194.6M revenue, -$51.9M net income) through FY2025, AKBA scaled operating cash flow to $68.0M and free cash flow to $67.7M, backed by $376.6M in total assets against $48.3M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 49/100): Strong cash generator (83.3% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 8/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $0.54 – $2.22 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation and 4.3x EV/EBITDA against 9.9% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (Health Care), AKBA carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 83.3%.

  • Key Question #1: Can AKBA sustain or expand its 9.9% operating margin and 85.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $236.2M and free cash flow of $67.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $48.3M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is AKBA's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

AKBA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Akebia Therapeutics Inc. (AKBA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AKBA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AKBA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $0.71?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AKBA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AKBA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $0.89 (+25.4%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Per the market data, ROIC of 85% and FY 2025 operating income of $23.5M show the business turned operating-profitable after prior losse

Long AKBA at $0.71 targeting $0.89. Per the market data, ROIC of 85% and FY 2025 operating income of $23.5M show the business turned operating-profitable after prior losses.. Institutional whale score is 8/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $0.54 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@RiskArb_Desk Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. If gross margin (83.3%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.58 (-18.3%)
Spot @ $0.71

Per the Roarable RQD rating, an Altman Z-Score of 0.2 and a share price of 0.71 below $1 raise distress and compliance risk.

Fading this rally in AKBA at $0.71. Per the Roarable RQD rating, an Altman Z-Score of 0.2 and a share price of 0.71 below $1 raise distress and compliance risk.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $0.71 (52-wk range $0.54–$2.23), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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