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Stock Ratings / Health Care / ALDX
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Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc. (ALDX) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$0.58 +4.09% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.58

Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc. (ALDX) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 39/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $33.8M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ALDX Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ALDX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: ALDX) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $0.58 (+4.09% 1D, market cap $33.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Active quantitative signal LIQUIDITY_TAILWIND (BEARISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ALDX compare to NNVC and LITS in the Health Care sector?
▼

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ALDX carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, NNVC (NanoViricides Inc.) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $34.0M) and LITS (Lite Strategy Inc.) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -18.9%, cap $34.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ALDX leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while LITS leads on capital efficiency (-18.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALDX?
▼

Per ALDX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001341235), Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc. generated $98.7M in revenue (-41.3% YoY), -$33.8M in net income, and -$33.3M in free cash flow against $72.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.58 (+0.55%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510039
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E · Rk D+
Cash (6)Whales (3)SEC (13)Macro (10)CEO (7)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.6% Base Target
$6 Bull$1 Base$0 Bear
📬 FREE ALDX RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ALDX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (39/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ALDX SCORES 39/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (33% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 30.6 (OVERSOLD (<32))

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
47
Grade D$0.90-18.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
44
Grade D$0.73-12.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
42
Grade D$0.64-9.4% Next Q
Current
39
Grade D-$0.58-7.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (47) → D- (39)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ALDX Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ALDX currently carries a cautious 39/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.11) and Max Pain ($0.61) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.23.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ALDX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ALDX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 39%NO 61%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMOVERSOLD (<32)
30.630 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
4 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE2% OF RANGE
L: $1$0.58H: $6
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 6 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 10 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 23 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning on ALDX

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (30)

-35.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (33)

10/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ALDX
  • ✓Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ALDX)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ALDX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ALDX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -64.20%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $0.66H $0.66L $0.56C $0.58VOL 896.6K
RES: $1.29SUP: $0.53SMA50: $1.11SMA200: $2.24
$4.84$3.68$2.51$1.35$0.19RES $1.29SUP $0.53$0.582026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ALDX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ALDX Butterfly Map → + Track ALDX →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -41.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ALDX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ALDX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ALDX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ALDX)

Health Care Rank #490 of 1015 ⚔️ NNVC vs ALDX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ALDX vs. NNVC, LITS, EDSA, IBO)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc. (ALDX) ranks #490 by composite RQD confidence (39/100, grade D-) and #786 by equity capitalization ($33.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ALDX leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while LITS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -18.9% ROIC and — gross margin. LITS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 43/100 (D-) compared with ALDX at 39/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ALDX ACTIVE
Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc.
D- 39/100 — — -35.0% +4.09% $33.8M Benchmark Subject
NNVC
NanoViricides Inc.
D- 37/100 — — -35.0% +1.50% $34.0M /nnvc-vs-aldx →
LITS
Lite Strategy Inc.
D- 43/100 — — -18.9% -13.60% $34.1M /lits-vs-aldx →
EDSA
Edesa Biotech Inc.
E 29/100 — — -35.0% -5.06% $34.7M /edsa-vs-aldx →
IBO
Impact BioMedical Inc.
E 30/100 — -30.0% -27.5% +5.53% $32.5M /ibo-vs-aldx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001341235 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc. (ALDX) reported GAAP revenue of $98.7M (-41.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $168.3M , and -17.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$33.8M, operating cash flow of -$33.3M, and free cash flow of -$33.3M (+22.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, ALDX closed FY2025 with $72.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $98.7M -$33.8M -$33.3M -$33.3M $72.1M $0
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $168.3M -$55.9M -$43.2M -$43.2M $104.6M $15.0M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $119.8M -$37.5M -$30.3M -$30.3M — —

3. ALDX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ALDX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: ALDX) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $0.58 (+4.09% 1D, market cap $33.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Active quantitative signal LIQUIDITY_TAILWIND (BEARISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.

How does ALDX compare to NNVC and LITS in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ALDX carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, NNVC (NanoViricides Inc.) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $34.0M) and LITS (Lite Strategy Inc.) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -18.9%, cap $34.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ALDX leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while LITS leads on capital efficiency (-18.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALDX?

Per ALDX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001341235), Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc. generated $98.7M in revenue (-41.3% YoY), -$33.8M in net income, and -$33.3M in free cash flow against $72.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ALDX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ALDX last traded at $0.58 (+4.09% on volume of 906,108 shares), positioning the stock -47.75% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.11) and -74.11% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.24). Across its 52-week range of $0.55 to $5.93, ALDX sits at the 0.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 30.6 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.65).

Direct Sub-Reports: ALDX RQD Cockpit ALDX 12M Forecast ALDX Earnings & Move ALDX Dividends & DRIP ALDX Insiders & 13F ALDX Whale Options ALDX Profit Sankey ALDX News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 39/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ALDX — Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc. (ALDX) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 39/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $0.58 (+4.09% 1D, market capitalization $33.8M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (6/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (7/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.00x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. Reported revenue is — in each period shown in the SEC financials, so the company does not appear to generate revenue in the reported periods.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc. (ALDX) reported $98.7M in annual revenue (up from $168.3M in FY2024, -41.3% YoY) and -$33.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($119.8M revenue, -$37.5M net income) through FY2025, ALDX scaled operating cash flow to -$33.3M and free cash flow to -$33.3M, backed by $72.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 39/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 6/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $0.55 – $5.93 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The graph's liquidity signal shows that, per its regression, ALDX is highly sensitive to net liquidity conditions (2.96x beta), so a tightening in the liquidity measure would be a second-order pressure point.

  • Key Question #1: Can ALDX sustain or expand its — operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $98.7M and free cash flow of -$33.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ALDX's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ALDX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc. (ALDX) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ALDX Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ALDX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $0.58?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ALDX 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ALDX:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $0.68 (+21.4%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Balance sheet posture is the strongest pillar, with reported cash rising to $70.0M and debt falling to $0.0M in FY 2025, per the SEC fi

Balance sheet posture is the strongest pillar, with reported cash rising to $70.0M and debt falling to $0.0M in FY 2025, per the SEC financials and RQD rating.. When you look under the hood at ALDX, Fundamental Cash Engine is 6/20 with 0.0% gross margins and -35.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (3/20) has been quietly accumulating below $5.93. My 12M target is $0.68.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — ALDX's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.44 (-21.4%)
Spot @ $0.56

The company reports no revenue, a -35% ROIC, and negative FCF in every reported year, with a Macro Tailwind Score of 23/100 and a 2.96x

Careful chasing ALDX at $0.56. The company reports no revenue, a -35% ROIC, and negative FCF in every reported year, with a Macro Tailwind Score of 23/100 and a 2.96x liquidity beta.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 0.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $0.44 on multiple compression.

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