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Alto Ingredients Inc. (ALTO) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$3.50 -4.11% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.47

Alto Ingredients Inc. (ALTO) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $283.1M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ALTO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Alto Ingredients Inc. (NASDAQ: ALTO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $3.50 (-4.11% 1D, market cap $283.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, ALTO ranks #127 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ALTO compare to GEVO and ASPI in the Materials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Materials sector (Major Chemicals), ALTO carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 3.8%, and ROIC of 2.0%. By comparison, GEVO (Gevo Inc.) holds a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.9%, cap $309.0M) and ASPI (ASP Isotopes Inc.) posts a E grade (21/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $309.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ALTO leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while OEC leads on capital efficiency (2.2% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALTO?
β–Ό

Per ALTO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000778164), Alto Ingredients Inc. generated $917.9M in revenue (-4.9% YoY), $13.3K in net income, and $8.6M in free cash flow against $388.8M in total assets and $63.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.47 (-0.93%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) β€’ 0.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 Β· D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D
025507510046
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D Β· Rk D
Cash (10)Whales (7)SEC (10)Macro (9)CEO (10)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.4% Base Target
$6 Bull$3 Base$3 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE ALTO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ALTO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±6.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY ALTO SCORES 46/100 (D) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.9% FCF Margin ($8.6M FCF) & 3.8% Gross Margin

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.98 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 7/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
54
Grade C-$3.77-5.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
51
Grade C-$3.56+4.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
49
Grade D$3.72-5.9% Next Q
Current
46
Grade D$3.50-6.1% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C- (54) β†’ D (46)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ALTO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While ALTO currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.80) and Max Pain ($3.68) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.42.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ALTOβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œALTO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 46%NO 54%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
1.8% Total Yield
0% Cash ($0.00/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
74/100 β€’ REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
0% (100% Reinvested)
Retains cash flow for R&D and share repurchases
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (5.5% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years β†’ $17,081

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $307/yr
$10.6K
Yr 1
$11.1K
Yr 2
$11.7K
Yr 3
$12.4K
Yr 4
$13.1K
Yr 5
$13.8K
Yr 6
$14.5K
Yr 7
$15.3K
Yr 8
$16.2K
Yr 9
$17.1K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ALTO)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of ALTO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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ALTO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -36.01%⚑ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $3.65H $3.65L $3.50C $3.50VOL 625.9K
RES: $3.68SUP: $3.24SMA50: $3.80SMA200: $4.29
$6.37$5.30$4.23$3.17$2.10RES $3.68SUP $3.24$3.502026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ALTO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ ALTO Butterfly Map β†’ + Track ALTO β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
27.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -4.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ALTO today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ALTO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ALTO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ALTO)

Materials Rank #127 of 270 βš”οΈ GEVO vs ALTO Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (ALTO vs. GEVO, ASPI, OEC, FF)

Industry: Major Chemicals (67 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Alto Ingredients Inc. (ALTO) ranks #127 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #203 by equity capitalization ($283.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ALTO leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while OEC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 2.2% ROIC and 19.9% gross margin. ALTO currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 46/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ALTO ACTIVE
Alto Ingredients Inc.
D 46/100 β€” 3.8% 2.0% -4.11% $283.1M Benchmark Subject
GEVO
Gevo Inc.
E 26/100 β€” β€” -2.9% -6.40% $309.0M /gevo-vs-alto β†’
ASPI
ASP Isotopes Inc.
E 21/100 β€” 14.3% -35.0% -3.96% $309.7M /aspi-vs-alto β†’
OEC
Orion S.A.
D- 39/100 β€” 19.9% 2.2% +0.71% $316.5M /oec-vs-alto β†’
FF
FutureFuel Corp.
D- 39/100 β€” -30.0% -35.0% +1.94% $248.7M /ff-vs-alto β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0000778164 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Alto Ingredients Inc. (ALTO) reported GAAP revenue of $917.9M (-4.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $965.3M , and -24.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $13.3K, operating cash flow of $13.2M, and free cash flow of $8.6M (+159.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, ALTO closed FY2025 with $388.8M in total assets against $63.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.98, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $917.9M $13.3K $13.2M $8.6M $388.8M $63.0M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $965.3M -$59.0K -$3.5M -$14.6M $401.4M $92.9M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.22B -$29.3M $22.0M $22.0M β€” β€”

3. ALTO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ALTO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Alto Ingredients Inc. (NASDAQ: ALTO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $3.50 (-4.11% 1D, market cap $283.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, ALTO ranks #127 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ALTO compare to GEVO and ASPI in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Major Chemicals), ALTO carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 3.8%, and ROIC of 2.0%. By comparison, GEVO (Gevo Inc.) holds a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.9%, cap $309.0M) and ASPI (ASP Isotopes Inc.) posts a E grade (21/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $309.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ALTO leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while OEC leads on capital efficiency (2.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALTO?

Per ALTO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000778164), Alto Ingredients Inc. generated $917.9M in revenue (-4.9% YoY), $13.3K in net income, and $8.6M in free cash flow against $388.8M in total assets and $63.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ALTO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ALTO last traded at $3.50 (-4.11% on volume of 865,385 shares), positioning the stock -7.89% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.80) and -18.41% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.29). Across its 52-week range of $0.99 to $6.11, ALTO sits at the 49.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±6.9% ($3.26 to $3.74).

Direct Sub-Reports: ALTO RQD Cockpit ALTO 12M Forecast ALTO Earnings & Move ALTO Dividends & DRIP ALTO Insiders & 13F ALTO Whale Options ALTO Profit Sankey ALTO News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 46/100 (D) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ALTO β€” Alto Ingredients Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Alto Ingredients Inc. (ALTO) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 46/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $3.50 (-4.11% 1D, market capitalization $283.1M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 2.0%, gross margin of 3.8%, operating margin of 0.8%, and free cash flow yield of 3.05%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (10/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.98, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.26x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Alto Ingredients Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Materials sector and Major Chemicals industry (per the company profile). The company's revenue of $917.9M in FY 2025 is reported in the financials section, indicating a substantial operating scale relative to its market capitalization of $283.1M.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Alto Ingredients Inc. (ALTO) reported $917.9M in annual revenue (up from $965.3M in FY2024, -4.9% YoY) and $13.3K in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.22B revenue, -$29.3M net income) through FY2025, ALTO scaled operating cash flow to $13.2M and free cash flow to $8.6M, backed by $388.8M in total assets against $63.0M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D β€’ RQD 46/100): Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 3.05% and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $0.99 – $6.11 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation and 28.6x EV/EBITDA against 0.8% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source data therefore does not identify upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or sector correlations. A prospective investor should note that the graph's sector and industry classification (Materials / Major Chemicals) is the only mapped context, and that second-order bottlenecks cannot be assessed from the provided data. The Q3 2026 earnings release on November 4, 2026 is the nearest identified event to monitor for operating-level signals.

  • Key Question #1: Can ALTO sustain or expand its 0.8% operating margin and 2.0% ROIC against Major Chemicals peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $917.9M and free cash flow of $8.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $63.0M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ALTO's equity valuation to Materials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ALTO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Alto Ingredients Inc. (ALTO) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to ALTO Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ALTO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $3.50?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ALTO 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ALTO:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Swing & Catalyst Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $4.74 (+29.9%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

FY 2025 operating income turned positive at $7.4M and FCF reached $8.6M while debt fell from $92.9M to $63.0M.

Here is why I am bullish on ALTO here at $3.65: FY 2025 operating income turned positive at $7.4M and FCF reached $8.6M while debt fell from $92.9M to $63.0M.. Compare ALTO's 0.8% operating margin and 2.0% ROIC against the rest of Major Chemicals. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $3.47 are getting bought.

EarningsSniper πŸ‚ BULL

Both sides have a point here β€” ALTO's 10/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.85 (-21.9%)
Spot @ $3.65

Altman Z of 0.98 and ROIC of 2% alongside a Roarable Sell verdict point to weak returns and financial-distress risk.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short ALTO above $3.65. Altman Z of 0.98 and ROIC of 2% alongside a Roarable Sell verdict point to weak returns and financial-distress risk.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20) and FCF yield (3.05%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $6.11.

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