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Stock Ratings / Technology / AMPL / earnings
SOUN (36) KARO (60) BL (58) KC (41) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Amplitude Inc. (Class A) (AMPL) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±9.2% Move

$16.79 -1.70% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.71

Amplitude Inc. (Class A) (AMPL) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 54/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.13B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AMPL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Amplitude Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: AMPL) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 54/100 at a spot price of $16.79 (-1.70% 1D, market cap $2.13B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, AMPL ranks #292 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AMPL compare to SOUN and KARO in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), AMPL carries a Roarable D+ (54/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 74.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, SOUN (SoundHound AI Inc) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -5.9%, cap $2.03B) and KARO (Karooooo Ltd.) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.03B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BL leads on earnings multiple (79.9x) while BL leads on capital efficiency (20.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AMPL?
▼

Per AMPL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001866692), Amplitude Inc. (Class A) generated $343.2M in revenue (+14.7% YoY), -$88.5M in net income, and $28.2M in free cash flow against $420.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.71 (-0.50%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 8.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 54/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510054
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk D
Cash (12)Whales (17)SEC (10)Macro (9)CEO (6)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.8% Base Target
$19 Bull$16 Base$13 Bear
📬 FREE AMPL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AMPL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (54/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AMPL SCORES 54/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (31% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.2% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 8.2% FCF Margin ($28.2M FCF) & 74% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 14 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
46
Grade D$15.61+0.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
49
Grade D$15.70+9.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
51
Grade C-$17.26-2.7% Next Q
Current
54
Grade D+$16.79-0.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (46) → D+ (54)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AMPL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AMPL currently carries a cautious 54/100 (D+) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($14.63) and Max Pain ($17.63) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $19.46.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AMPL• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AMPL Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 54%NO 46%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±9.2% Swing Band

±$1.54 Expected Swing
$15.25 (-9.2%)Spot $16.79$18.33 (+9.2%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

AMPL Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 54/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 14.7%

Model Bullish Setup (54/100)Model Risk Weight (46/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$343.2M-$88.5M$28.2M74%
FY 20242024-12-31$299.3M-$94.3M$16.8M74.3%
FY 20232023-12-31$276.3M-$90.4M$25.6M74%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AMPL)

  • ✓Walkthrough of AMPL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AMPL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +108.83%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $17.10H $17.10L $16.79C $16.79VOL 1.98M
RES: $18.13SUP: $15.57SMA50: $14.63SMA200: $9.68
$18.69$15.16$11.62$8.08$4.54RES $18.13SUP $15.57$16.792026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AMPL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AMPL Butterfly Map → + Track AMPL →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +14.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AMPL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AMPL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AMPL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AMPL)

Technology Rank #292 of 715 ⚔️ SOUN vs AMPL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (AMPL vs. SOUN, KARO, BL, KC)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Amplitude Inc. (Class A) (AMPL) ranks #292 by composite RQD confidence (54/100, grade D+) and #285 by equity capitalization ($2.13B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BL leads on earnings valuation at 79.9x trailing P/E, while BL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 20.6% ROIC and 75.2% gross margin. KARO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 60/100 (C-) compared with AMPL at 54/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AMPL ACTIVE
Amplitude Inc. (Class A)
D+ 54/100 — 74.0% -35.0% -1.70% $2.13B Benchmark Subject
SOUN
SoundHound AI Inc
D- 36/100 — 83.4% -5.9% -3.08% $2.03B /soun-vs-ampl →
KARO
Karooooo Ltd.
C- 60/100 — — — -1.28% $2.03B /karo-vs-ampl →
BL
BlackLine Inc.
D+ 58/100 79.9x 75.2% 20.6% +0.83% $1.97B /bl-vs-ampl →
KC
Kingsoft Cloud Holdings Limited
D- 41/100 — 15.7% -9.7% +2.19% $2.33B /kc-vs-ampl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001866692 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Amplitude Inc. (Class A) (AMPL) reported GAAP revenue of $343.2M (+14.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $299.3M , and +24.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$88.5M, operating cash flow of $29.8M, and free cash flow of $28.2M (+68.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, AMPL closed FY2025 with $420.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $343.2M -$88.5M $29.8M $28.2M $420.7M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $299.3M -$94.3M $18.5M $16.8M $445.9M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $276.3M -$90.4M $25.6M $25.6M — —

3. AMPL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AMPL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Amplitude Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: AMPL) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 54/100 at a spot price of $16.79 (-1.70% 1D, market cap $2.13B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, AMPL ranks #292 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AMPL compare to SOUN and KARO in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), AMPL carries a Roarable D+ (54/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 74.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, SOUN (SoundHound AI Inc) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -5.9%, cap $2.03B) and KARO (Karooooo Ltd.) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.03B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BL leads on earnings multiple (79.9x) while BL leads on capital efficiency (20.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AMPL?

Per AMPL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001866692), Amplitude Inc. (Class A) generated $343.2M in revenue (+14.7% YoY), -$88.5M in net income, and $28.2M in free cash flow against $420.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AMPL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AMPL last traded at $16.79 (-1.70% on volume of 2,281,733 shares), positioning the stock +14.76% above its 50-day simple moving average ($14.63) and +73.45% above its 200-day simple moving average ($9.68). Across its 52-week range of $5.51 to $17.84, AMPL sits at the 91.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 66.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.2% ($15.25 to $18.33).

Direct Sub-Reports: AMPL RQD Cockpit AMPL 12M Forecast AMPL Earnings & Move AMPL Dividends & DRIP AMPL Insiders & 13F AMPL Whale Options AMPL Profit Sankey AMPL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 54/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AMPL — Amplitude Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Amplitude Inc. (Class A) (AMPL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 54/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $16.79 (-1.70% 1D, market capitalization $2.13B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of 74.0%, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 1.32%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (17/20) + Insider Conviction (6/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. (Class A) (AMPL) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Technology sector, operating in the Computer Software: Prepackaged Software industry, with a market capitalization of $2.1B. Reported gross margin is 74%, operating margin is 0%, and net margin is -25.8%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Amplitude Inc. (Class A) (AMPL) reported $343.2M in annual revenue (up from $299.3M in FY2024, +14.7% YoY) and -$88.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($276.3M revenue, -$90.4M net income) through FY2025, AMPL scaled operating cash flow to $29.8M and free cash flow to $28.2M, backed by $420.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 54/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of 1.32% and institutional whale pillar of 17/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 17/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $5.51 – $17.84 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies cannot be mapped from the source data. Sector classification is Technology / Computer Software: Prepackaged Software. Beta of 1.0 per the market data indicates market-level sensitivity, but the source does not provide sector correlation figures. Investors should note that no 2nd-order bottlenecks are identified in the source.

  • Key Question #1: Can AMPL sustain or expand its — operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Computer Software: Prepackaged Software peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $343.2M and free cash flow of $28.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is AMPL's equity valuation to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

AMPL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Amplitude Inc. (Class A) (AMPL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AMPL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AMPL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $16.79?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AMPL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AMPL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $22.55 (+32.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue grew from $276.3M to $343.2M over FY 2023–FY 2025 while institutional accumulation scores 17/20 in the RQD rating.

Long AMPL at $17.08 targeting $22.55. Revenue grew from $276.3M to $343.2M over FY 2023–FY 2025 while institutional accumulation scores 17/20 in the RQD rating.. Institutional whale score is 17/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $5.51 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

@ForensicBear Shorting a 17/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $17.08 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Technology.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $14.18 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $17.08

ROIC of -35%, a 1.32% FCF yield, and net losses of -$88.5M in FY 2025 leave the cash engine scoring only 12/20.

I respect the product at Amplitude Inc. (Class A), but the stock at $17.08 is a different story. ROIC of -35%, a 1.32% FCF yield, and net losses of -$88.5M in FY 2025 leave the cash engine scoring only 12/20.. FCF yield is 1.32% and RQD sits at 54/100 (D+) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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