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GBLI (43) NODK (31) GLRE (54) KINS (72) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

AMERISAFE Inc. (AMSF) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$20.70 -1.03% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.62

AMERISAFE Inc. (AMSF) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 43/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $383.5M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AMSF Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AMSF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, AMERISAFE Inc. (NASDAQ: AMSF) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $20.70 (-1.03% 1D, market cap $383.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, AMSF ranks #869 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AMSF compare to GBLI and NODK in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), AMSF carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.1x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 18.7%. By comparison, GBLI (Global Indemnity Group LLC (Class A)) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E 14.2x, ROIC 3.6%, cap $347.7M) and NODK (NI Holdings Inc.) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -4.3%, cap $308.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GLRE leads on earnings multiple (6.4x) while KINS leads on capital efficiency (33.2% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AMSF?
β–Ό

Per AMSF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001018979), AMERISAFE Inc. generated $317.3M in revenue (+2.7% YoY), $47.1M in net income, and $8.9M in free cash flow against $1.13B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.62 (-0.38%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) β€’ 2.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 Β· D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D-
025507510043
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- Β· Rk D
Cash (9)Whales (3)SEC (10)Macro (8)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.8% Base Target
$44 Bull$19 Base$15 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE AMSF RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AMSF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±8.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (43/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY AMSF SCORES 43/100 (D-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+13/20 pts (30% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 65% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 3/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
51
Grade C-$24.64+3.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
48
Grade D$25.52-0.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
46
Grade D$25.30-18.2% Next Q
Current
43
Grade D-$20.70-6.7% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C- (51) β†’ D- (43)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AMSF Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While AMSF currently carries a cautious 43/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($24.62) and Max Pain ($21.74) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $44.21.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AMSFβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œAMSF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 43%NO 57%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
1.8% Total Yield
0% Cash ($0.00/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
74/100 β€’ REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
0% (100% Reinvested)
Retains cash flow for R&D and share repurchases
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (5.5% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years β†’ $17,081

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $307/yr
$10.6K
Yr 1
$11.1K
Yr 2
$11.7K
Yr 3
$12.4K
Yr 4
$13.1K
Yr 5
$13.8K
Yr 6
$14.5K
Yr 7
$15.3K
Yr 8
$16.2K
Yr 9
$17.1K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AMSF)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of AMSF's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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AMSF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -30.37%β–Ό SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-04O $20.91H $20.91L $20.70C $20.70VOL 625.7K
RES: $25.51SUP: $20.95SMA50: $24.62SMA200: $30.66
$40.55$35.17$29.79$24.41$19.03RES $25.51SUP $20.95$20.702026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AMSF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ AMSF Butterfly Map β†’ + Track AMSF β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-3.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +2.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AMSF today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AMSF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AMSF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AMSF)

Financials Rank #869 of 1097 βš”οΈ GBLI vs AMSF Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (AMSF vs. GBLI, NODK, GLRE, KINS)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, AMERISAFE Inc. (AMSF) ranks #869 by composite RQD confidence (43/100, grade D-) and #759 by equity capitalization ($383.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GLRE leads on earnings valuation at 6.4x trailing P/E, while KINS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.2% ROIC and β€” gross margin. KINS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with AMSF at 43/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AMSF ACTIVE
AMERISAFE Inc.
D- 43/100 9.1x β€” 18.7% -1.03% $383.5M Benchmark Subject
GBLI
Global Indemnity Group LLC (Class A)
D- 43/100 14.2x β€” 3.6% -2.98% $347.7M /gbli-vs-amsf β†’
NODK
NI Holdings Inc.
E 31/100 β€” β€” -4.3% +1.14% $308.7M /nodk-vs-amsf β†’
GLRE
Greenlight Capital Re Ltd. (Class A)
D+ 54/100 6.4x β€” 10.6% +2.93% $492.6M /glre-vs-amsf β†’
KINS
Kingstone Companies Inc.
B 72/100 7.1x β€” 33.2% +1.19% $295.5M /kins-vs-amsf β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001018979 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), AMERISAFE Inc. (AMSF) reported GAAP revenue of $317.3M (+2.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $309.0M , and +3.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $47.1M, operating cash flow of $11.1M, and free cash flow of $8.9M (-61.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, AMSF closed FY2025 with $1.13B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $317.3M $47.1M $11.1M $8.9M $1.13B β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $309.0M $55.4M $24.2M $23.4M $1.16B β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $306.9M $62.1M $29.8M $29.8M β€” β€”

3. AMSF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AMSF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, AMERISAFE Inc. (NASDAQ: AMSF) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $20.70 (-1.03% 1D, market cap $383.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, AMSF ranks #869 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AMSF compare to GBLI and NODK in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), AMSF carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.1x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 18.7%. By comparison, GBLI (Global Indemnity Group LLC (Class A)) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E 14.2x, ROIC 3.6%, cap $347.7M) and NODK (NI Holdings Inc.) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -4.3%, cap $308.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GLRE leads on earnings multiple (6.4x) while KINS leads on capital efficiency (33.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AMSF?

Per AMSF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001018979), AMERISAFE Inc. generated $317.3M in revenue (+2.7% YoY), $47.1M in net income, and $8.9M in free cash flow against $1.13B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AMSF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AMSF last traded at $20.70 (-1.03% on volume of 625,690 shares), positioning the stock -15.92% below its 50-day simple moving average ($24.62) and -32.49% below its 200-day simple moving average ($30.66). Across its 52-week range of $20.70 to $42.10, AMSF sits at the 0.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 32.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±8.8% ($18.88 to $22.52).

Direct Sub-Reports: AMSF RQD Cockpit AMSF 12M Forecast AMSF Earnings & Move AMSF Dividends & DRIP AMSF Insiders & 13F AMSF Whale Options AMSF Profit Sankey AMSF News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 43/100 (D-) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AMSF β€” AMERISAFE Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

AMERISAFE Inc. (AMSF) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 43/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $20.70 (-1.03% 1D, market capitalization $383.5M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 18.7%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of β€”, and free cash flow yield of 2.08%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (13/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

AMERISAFE Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Property-Casualty Insurers industry,. The company's market capitalization is $0.4B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), AMERISAFE Inc. (AMSF) reported $317.3M in annual revenue (up from $309.0M in FY2024, +2.7% YoY) and $47.1M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($306.9M revenue, $62.1M net income) through FY2025, AMSF scaled operating cash flow to $11.1M and free cash flow to $8.9M, backed by $1.13B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D- β€’ RQD 43/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 2.08% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $20.70 – $42.10 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 9.1x trailing P/E against β€” operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

β€” there are no upstream or downstream links and no proprietary signals recorded, so no supply-chain or sector-correlation ripple effects can be drawn from the source data.

  • Key Question #1: Can AMSF sustain or expand its β€” operating margin and 18.7% ROIC against Property-Casualty Insurers peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $317.3M and free cash flow of $8.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is AMSF's 8.5x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

AMSF Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for AMERISAFE Inc. (AMSF) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to AMSF Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AMSF Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $20.70?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AMSF 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AMSF:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Institutional Buy-Side πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $27.39 (+31.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Trades at a 9.1x TTM P/E and 8.5x forward P/E with ROIC of 18.7%, indicating low valuation against strong capital returns.

Don't sleep on AMSF's setup in Financials. Trades at a 9.1x TTM P/E and 8.5x forward P/E with ROIC of 18.7%, indicating low valuation against strong capital returns.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (43/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

CapAlloc_Nerd πŸ‚ BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Fair point on 9.1x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Property-Casualty Insurers. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $16.10 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $20.91

Net income fell from $62.1M to $47.1M and free cash flow fell from $29.8M to $8.9M while the stock dropped 8.73% and the RQD rating car

Fading this rally in AMSF at $20.91. Net income fell from $62.1M to $47.1M and free cash flow fell from $29.8M to $8.9M while the stock dropped 8.73% and the RQD rating carries a distribution warning.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $20.91 (52-wk range $20.87–$42.10), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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