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Stock Ratings / Financials / AMTD / forecast
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AMTD IDEA Group each representing three hundred sixty (360) (Class A) (AMTD) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$19.12 -2.65% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.99

AMTD IDEA Group each representing three hundred sixty (360) (Class A) (AMTD) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $31.3M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AMTD Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AMTD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, AMTD IDEA Group each representing three hundred sixty (360) (Class A) (NYSE: AMTD) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $19.12 (-2.65% 1D, market cap $31.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, AMTD ranks #771 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AMTD compare to MI and GRAN in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), AMTD carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.9%. By comparison, MI (NFT Limited Class A Ordinary Share) holds a E grade (22/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.9%, cap $33.0M) and GRAN (Grande Group Limited (Class A)) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $29.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AMTD leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while AMTD leads on capital efficiency (4.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AMTD?
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Per AMTD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001769731), AMTD IDEA Group each representing three hundred sixty (360) (Class A) generated $101.2M in revenue (+25.8% YoY), $67.3M in net income, and $17.1M in free cash flow against $2.30B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.99 (-0.67%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 16.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510046
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk C
Cash (9)Whales (3)SEC (13)Macro (12)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.4% Base Target
$71 Bull$18 Base$14 Bear
📬 FREE AMTD RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AMTD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AMTD SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 28% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 32.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
54
Grade C-$22.98+7.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
51
Grade C-$24.78-8.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
49
Grade D$22.75-16% Next Q
Current
46
Grade D$19.12-6.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (54) → D (46)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AMTD Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AMTD currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($37.66) and Max Pain ($20.08) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $70.56.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AMTD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AMTD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 46%NO 54%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your AMTD Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $19.12: 523.0 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $14.11
$7,380
$-2,620 (-26.2%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $18.09
$9,461
$-539 (-5.4%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $70.56
$36,904
+$26,904 (+269.0%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$1974%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$6669%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$1658%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AMTD)

  • ✓Walkthrough of AMTD's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AMTD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -68.45%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $20.67H $20.67L $19.12C $19.12VOL 4.5K
RES: $45.37SUP: $14.41SMA50: $37.66SMA200: $52.72
$69.28$55.69$42.09$28.50$14.90RES $45.37SUP $14.41$19.122026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AMTD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AMTD Butterfly Map → + Track AMTD →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +25.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AMTD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AMTD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AMTD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AMTD)

Financials Rank #771 of 1097 ⚔️ MI vs AMTD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (AMTD vs. MI, GRAN, FLD, CNF)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, AMTD IDEA Group each representing three hundred sixty (360) (Class A) (AMTD) ranks #771 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #1037 by equity capitalization ($31.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AMTD leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while AMTD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 4.9% ROIC and — gross margin. CNF currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 49/100 (D) compared with AMTD at 46/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AMTD ACTIVE
AMTD IDEA Group each representing three hundred sixty (360) (Class A)
D 46/100 — — 4.9% -2.65% $31.3M Benchmark Subject
MI
NFT Limited Class A Ordinary Share
E 22/100 — — -0.9% -3.85% $33.0M /mi-vs-amtd →
GRAN
Grande Group Limited (Class A)
E 31/100 — — — +0.84% $29.6M /gran-vs-amtd →
FLD
Fold Holdings Inc. (Class A)
D- 35/100 — — -35.0% +2.88% $29.3M /fld-vs-amtd →
CNF
CNFinance Holdings Limited each representing two hundred (200)
D 49/100 — — — +1.73% $34.7M /cnf-vs-amtd →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001769731 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), AMTD IDEA Group each representing three hundred sixty (360) (Class A) (AMTD) reported GAAP revenue of $101.2M (+25.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $80.5M , and -22.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $67.3M, operating cash flow of $17.8M, and free cash flow of $17.1M (+231.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, AMTD closed FY2025 with $2.30B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $101.2M $67.3M $17.8M $17.1M $2.30B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $80.5M $53.6M $5.2M $5.2M $2.07B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $130.9M $153.4M $40.0M $40.0M — —

3. AMTD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AMTD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, AMTD IDEA Group each representing three hundred sixty (360) (Class A) (NYSE: AMTD) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $19.12 (-2.65% 1D, market cap $31.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, AMTD ranks #771 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AMTD compare to MI and GRAN in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), AMTD carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.9%. By comparison, MI (NFT Limited Class A Ordinary Share) holds a E grade (22/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.9%, cap $33.0M) and GRAN (Grande Group Limited (Class A)) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $29.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AMTD leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while AMTD leads on capital efficiency (4.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AMTD?

Per AMTD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001769731), AMTD IDEA Group each representing three hundred sixty (360) (Class A) generated $101.2M in revenue (+25.8% YoY), $67.3M in net income, and $17.1M in free cash flow against $2.30B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AMTD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AMTD last traded at $19.12 (-2.65% on volume of 14,963 shares), positioning the stock -49.23% below its 50-day simple moving average ($37.66) and -63.73% below its 200-day simple moving average ($52.72). Across its 52-week range of $0.87 to $67.20, AMTD sits at the 27.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 32.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($16.73 to $21.51).

Direct Sub-Reports: AMTD RQD Cockpit AMTD 12M Forecast AMTD Earnings & Move AMTD Dividends & DRIP AMTD Insiders & 13F AMTD Whale Options AMTD Profit Sankey AMTD News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 46/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AMTD — AMTD IDEA Group each representing three hundred sixty (360) (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

AMTD IDEA Group each representing three hundred sixty (360) (Class A) (AMTD) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 46/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $19.12 (-2.65% 1D, market capitalization $31.3M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 4.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

AMTD is listed on the NYSE and classified..0B. The products sold, customer base, and revenue model are not described.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), AMTD IDEA Group each representing three hundred sixty (360) (Class A) (AMTD) reported $101.2M in annual revenue (up from $80.5M in FY2024, +25.8% YoY) and $67.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($130.9M revenue, $153.4M net income) through FY2025, AMTD scaled operating cash flow to $17.8M and free cash flow to $17.1M, backed by $2.30B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 46/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $0.87 – $67.20 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Sector is Financials and industry is Finance: Consumer Services.

  • Key Question #1: Can AMTD sustain or expand its — operating margin and 4.9% ROIC against Finance: Consumer Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $101.2M and free cash flow of $17.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is AMTD's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

AMTD Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for AMTD IDEA Group each representing three hundred sixty (360) (Class A) (AMTD) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AMTD Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AMTD Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $19.12?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AMTD 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AMTD:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $25.92 (+32.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance-sheet pillar is the strongest component at 13/20, with Altman Z of 2.5 and Piotroski F of 6/9.

Long AMTD at $19.64 targeting $25.92. Forensic balance-sheet pillar is the strongest component at 13/20, with Altman Z of 2.5 and Piotroski F of 6/9.. Institutional whale score is 3/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $19.64 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@BreakoutHunter Agree on the RQD 46/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $19.64 and keeping dry powder in case we test $18.27.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $16.50 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $19.64

Whale 13F flow scores 3/20 and FCF yield is 0%, leaving the rating's cash and institutional signals weak.

I respect the product at AMTD IDEA Group each representing three hundred sixty (360) (Class A), but the stock at $19.64 is a different story. Whale 13F flow scores 3/20 and FCF yield is 0%, leaving the rating's cash and institutional signals weak.. FCF yield is 0.0% and RQD sits at 46/100 (D) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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