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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / AOUT / earnings
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American Outdoor Brands Inc. (AOUT) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±8.2% Move

$18.44 +1.77% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.46

American Outdoor Brands Inc. (AOUT) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 55/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $228.7M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AOUT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, American Outdoor Brands Inc. (NASDAQ: AOUT) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $18.44 (+1.77% 1D, market cap $228.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, AOUT ranks #443 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AOUT compare to ESCA and CLAR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Recreational Games/Products/Toys), AOUT carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 44.7%, and ROIC of -4.6%. By comparison, ESCA (Escalade Incorporated) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 20.2x, ROIC 8.0%, cap $271.0M) and CLAR (Clarus Corporation) posts a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -29.5%, cap $169.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BBW leads on earnings multiple (6.5x) while BBW leads on capital efficiency (33.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AOUT?
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Per AOUT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-04-30, CIK 0001808997), American Outdoor Brands Inc. generated $190.5M in revenue (-14.3% YoY), -$9.2M in net income, and $4.3M in free cash flow against $225.0M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.46 (+0.13%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 2.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510055
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+
Cash (12)Whales (15)SEC (11)Macro (10)CEO (7)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.4% Base Target
$21 Bull$18 Base$14 Bear
📬 FREE AOUT RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AOUT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (55/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AOUT SCORES 55/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (27% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±8.2% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 2.2% FCF Margin ($4.3M FCF) & 44.7% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 13 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
47
Grade D$17.01+5.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
50
Grade C-$17.87+0.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
52
Grade C-$17.98+2.6% Next Q
Current
55
Grade D+$18.44-0.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (47) → D+ (55)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AOUT Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 55/100 (D+) score, AOUT faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($15.73) or 200D SMA ($11.62) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($18.19) toward Bear Floor ($14.19).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AOUT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AOUT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 28, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 55%NO 45%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Jan 28, 2027 (~85 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±8.2% Swing Band

±$1.51 Expected Swing
$16.93 (-8.2%)Spot $18.44$19.95 (+8.2%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

AOUT Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 55/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: -14.3%

Model Bullish Setup (55/100)Model Risk Weight (45/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252026-04-30$190.5M-$9.2M$4.3M44.7%
FY 20242025-04-30$222.3M-$77.0K-$1.8M44.6%
FY 20232024-04-30$201.1M-$12.2M$24.5M44.7%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AOUT)

  • ✓Walkthrough of AOUT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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AOUT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +97.01%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $18.35H $18.44L $18.12C $18.44VOL 160.4K
RES: $19.09SUP: $10.45SMA50: $15.73SMA200: $11.62
$19.18$16.27$13.35$10.43$7.51RES $19.09SUP $10.45$18.442026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AOUT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AOUT Butterfly Map → + Track AOUT →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -14.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AOUT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AOUT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AOUT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AOUT)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #443 of 1009 ⚔️ ESCA vs AOUT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (AOUT vs. ESCA, CLAR, BBW, FNKO)

Industry: Recreational Games/Products/Toys (20 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, American Outdoor Brands Inc. (AOUT) ranks #443 by composite RQD confidence (55/100, grade D+) and #676 by equity capitalization ($228.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BBW leads on earnings valuation at 6.5x trailing P/E, while BBW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.7% ROIC and 55.8% gross margin. ESCA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with AOUT at 55/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AOUT ACTIVE
American Outdoor Brands Inc.
D+ 55/100 — 44.7% -4.6% +1.77% $228.7M Benchmark Subject
ESCA
Escalade Incorporated
B 74/100 20.2x 26.9% 8.0% +6.29% $271.0M /esca-vs-aout →
CLAR
Clarus Corporation
D- 36/100 — 33.1% -29.5% +1.13% $169.6M /clar-vs-aout →
BBW
Build-A-Bear Workshop Inc.
C+ 68/100 6.5x 55.8% 33.7% +6.99% $340.1M /bbw-vs-aout →
FNKO
Funko Inc. (Class A)
D- 36/100 — — -10.4% +0.63% $356.7M /fnko-vs-aout →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-04-30 • CIK 0001808997 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-04-30), American Outdoor Brands Inc. (AOUT) reported GAAP revenue of $190.5M (-14.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $222.3M , and -5.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$9.2M, operating cash flow of $6.3M, and free cash flow of $4.3M (+338.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, AOUT closed FY2025 with $225.0M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.23, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-04-30 $190.5M -$9.2M $6.3M $4.3M $225.0M —
FY2024 (FY) 2025-04-30 $222.3M -$77.0K $1.4M -$1.8M $245.9M —
FY2023 (FY) 2024-04-30 $201.1M -$12.2M $24.5M $24.5M — —

3. AOUT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AOUT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, American Outdoor Brands Inc. (NASDAQ: AOUT) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $18.44 (+1.77% 1D, market cap $228.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 7/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, AOUT ranks #443 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AOUT compare to ESCA and CLAR in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Recreational Games/Products/Toys), AOUT carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 44.7%, and ROIC of -4.6%. By comparison, ESCA (Escalade Incorporated) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 20.2x, ROIC 8.0%, cap $271.0M) and CLAR (Clarus Corporation) posts a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -29.5%, cap $169.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BBW leads on earnings multiple (6.5x) while BBW leads on capital efficiency (33.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AOUT?

Per AOUT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-04-30, CIK 0001808997), American Outdoor Brands Inc. generated $190.5M in revenue (-14.3% YoY), -$9.2M in net income, and $4.3M in free cash flow against $225.0M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AOUT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AOUT last traded at $18.44 (+1.77% on volume of 281,868 shares), positioning the stock +17.23% above its 50-day simple moving average ($15.73) and +58.69% above its 200-day simple moving average ($11.62). Across its 52-week range of $6.26 to $18.48, AOUT sits at the 99.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 62.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.2% ($16.93 to $19.95).

Direct Sub-Reports: AOUT RQD Cockpit AOUT 12M Forecast AOUT Earnings & Move AOUT Dividends & DRIP AOUT Insiders & 13F AOUT Whale Options AOUT Profit Sankey AOUT News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 55/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

AOUT — American Outdoor Brands Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-04-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

American Outdoor Brands Inc. (AOUT) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 55/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $18.44 (+1.77% 1D, market capitalization $228.7M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -4.6%, gross margin of 44.7%, operating margin of -4.7%, and free cash flow yield of 1.84%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (15/20) + Insider Conviction (7/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.23, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Recreational Games/Products/Toys industry. The company's market capitalization is $0.2B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-04-30), American Outdoor Brands Inc. (AOUT) reported $190.5M in annual revenue (up from $222.3M in FY2024, -14.3% YoY) and -$9.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($201.1M revenue, -$12.2M net income) through FY2025, AOUT scaled operating cash flow to $6.3M and free cash flow to $4.3M, backed by $225.0M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 55/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of 1.84% and institutional whale pillar of 15/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 15/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $6.26 – $18.48 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -4.7% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source data therefore does not establish upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks for AOUT. The only sector context available is the Consumer Discretionary classification and the Recreational Games/Products/Toys industry, with a beta of 1.0 per the market data.

  • Key Question #1: Can AOUT sustain or expand its -4.7% operating margin and -4.6% ROIC against Recreational Games/Products/Toys peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $190.5M and free cash flow of $4.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is AOUT's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

AOUT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for American Outdoor Brands Inc. (AOUT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AOUT Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AOUT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $18.44?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AOUT 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AOUT:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $22.11 (+22.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Institutional accumulation and options positioning earn the strongest RQD pillar score at 16 of 20.

Picked up a starter position in AOUT in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $18.12. Institutional accumulation and options positioning earn the strongest RQD pillar score at 16 of 20.. Trading inside a $6.26–$18.48 52-week range with 1.84% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Recreational Games/Products/Toys multiples expand this quarter.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — AOUT's 11/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $15.40 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $18.12

Negative ROIC of -4.6% and net losses across FY 2023 through FY 2025 weigh on the fundamental cash engine.

Negative ROIC of -4.6% and net losses across FY 2023 through FY 2025 weigh on the fundamental cash engine.. Look at the math on AOUT: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for -4.6% ROIC and -4.7% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Recreational Games/Products/Toys demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $15.95 before getting long.

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