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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / ARCO / forecast
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Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$6.73 -2.46% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.69

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.45B
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ARCO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: ARCO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $6.73 (-2.46% 1D, market cap $1.45B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ARCO ranks #601 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ARCO compare to WEN and CBRL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), ARCO carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.9x, gross margin of 96.0%, and ROIC of 18.9%. By comparison, WEN (Wendy's Company) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 8.3x, ROIC 10.7%, cap $1.37B) and CBRL (Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 34.9x, ROIC 5.4%, cap $1.57B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARCO leads on earnings multiple (6.9x) while ARCO leads on capital efficiency (18.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARCO?
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Per ARCO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001508478), Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) generated $4.68B in revenue (+4.7% YoY), $212.1M in net income, and $15.0M in free cash flow against $3.89B in total assets and $1.13B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.69 (-0.63%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.16% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 0.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510048
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D-
Cash (13)Whales (3)SEC (11)Macro (5)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target
$10 Bull$6 Base$5 Bear
📬 FREE ARCO RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARCO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ARCO SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (33% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.16% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.3% FCF Margin ($15.0M FCF) & 98.1% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
56
Grade C$7.76+2.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
53
Grade C-$7.95-11.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
51
Grade C-$7.04-4.4% Next Q
Current
48
Grade D$6.73-5.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (56) → D (48)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ARCO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ARCO currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($7.71) and Max Pain ($7.07) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $10.24.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.16% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARCO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ARCO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your ARCO Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $6.73: 1485.9 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $5.02
$7,459
$-2,541 (-25.4%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $6.43
$9,554
$-446 (-4.5%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $10.24
$15,215
+$5,215 (+52.2%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$774%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$1069%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$658%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ARCO)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ARCO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ARCO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.20%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $6.92H $6.92L $6.73C $6.73VOL 1.79M
RES: $8.15SUP: $6.05SMA50: $7.71SMA200: $8.21
$9.44$8.69$7.94$7.19$6.44RES $8.15SUP $6.05$6.732026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARCO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ARCO Butterfly Map → + Track ARCO →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-8.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARCO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARCO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARCO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARCO)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #601 of 1011 ⚔️ WEN vs ARCO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ARCO vs. WEN, CBRL, BJRI, SG)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) ranks #601 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #464 by equity capitalization ($1.45B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARCO leads on earnings valuation at 6.9x trailing P/E, while ARCO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.9% ROIC and 96.0% gross margin. CBRL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with ARCO at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ARCO ACTIVE
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A)
D 48/100 6.9x 96.0% 18.9% -2.46% $1.45B Benchmark Subject
WEN
Wendy's Company
D 49/100 8.3x 63.6% 10.7% +0.63% $1.37B /wen-vs-arco →
CBRL
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc
B- 70/100 34.9x 69.0% 5.4% -3.31% $1.57B /cbrl-vs-arco →
BJRI
BJ's Restaurants Inc.
C- 61/100 27.6x 74.7% 10.7% -1.18% $1.33B /bjri-vs-arco →
SG
Sweetgreen Inc. (Class A)
E 31/100 — — -35.0% -2.98% $1.32B /sg-vs-arco →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001508478

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) reported GAAP revenue of $4.68B (+4.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.47B , and +8.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $212.1M, operating cash flow of $296.3M, and free cash flow of $15.0M (+124.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARCO closed FY2025 with $3.89B in total assets against $1.13B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.10, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $4.68B $212.1M $296.3M $15.0M $3.89B $1.13B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $4.47B $148.8M $266.8M -$60.8M $2.89B $716.0M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $4.33B $181.3M $382.0M $382.0M — —

3. ARCO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARCO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: ARCO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $6.73 (-2.46% 1D, market cap $1.45B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ARCO ranks #601 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ARCO compare to WEN and CBRL in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), ARCO carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.9x, gross margin of 96.0%, and ROIC of 18.9%. By comparison, WEN (Wendy's Company) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 8.3x, ROIC 10.7%, cap $1.37B) and CBRL (Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 34.9x, ROIC 5.4%, cap $1.57B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARCO leads on earnings multiple (6.9x) while ARCO leads on capital efficiency (18.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARCO?

Per ARCO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001508478), Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) generated $4.68B in revenue (+4.7% YoY), $212.1M in net income, and $15.0M in free cash flow against $3.89B in total assets and $1.13B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ARCO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARCO last traded at $6.73 (-2.46% on volume of 2,196,564 shares), positioning the stock -12.71% below its 50-day simple moving average ($7.71) and -18.03% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.21). Across its 52-week range of $6.67 to $9.75, ARCO sits at the 1.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.7% ($6.28 to $7.18).

ARCO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is ARCO's 12-month stock price target?

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $6.43 (-4.5% from $6.73), with a bull-case target of $10.24 and a bear-case floor of $5.02.

Is ARCO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates ARCO D (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 48/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: ARCO RQD Cockpit ARCO 12M Forecast ARCO Earnings & Move ARCO Dividends & DRIP ARCO Insiders & 13F ARCO Whale Options ARCO Profit Sankey ARCO News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 48/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ARCO — Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:29:08Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ARCO scores 48 / 100, grade D, verdict "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 13 / 20. Per the RQD rating, ROIC is 18.9% and FCF yield is 1.03%. The ROIC figure is a relative strength; the thin FCF yield limits the cash return available to shareholders at the current price.
  • Whale / 13F Flow: 3 / 20. Per the RQD rating, institutional accumulation and options positioning score weakly. Holder-level detail is not available in source data, so the drivers of this score cannot be verified here.
  • Insider Conviction: 16 / 20. Per the RQD rating, SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow score relatively well. The underlying transactions are not itemized in the source data.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 5 / 20. Per the RQD rating, beta is 1.0 and sector sensitivity is weak for the current regime, indicating limited alignment with prevailing conditions.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 11 / 20. Per the RQD rating, Altman Z is 2.1, Piotroski F is 8/9, and Debt/Equity is 1.46. The Piotroski reading is strong, while leverage and the Altman reading temper the score.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the rating points to a mixed picture: a solid return on capital and insider-flow strength are offset by weak institutional positioning, weak macro alignment, and a low free-cash-flow yield. Valuation (P/E TTM 6.9, EV/EBITDA 3.7) is low on the source's figures, but that low multiple is accompanied by the rating's distribution warning, so cheapness alone does not resolve the rating's concerns.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
6.9$1.45B6.96.43.71.013.48%1.0$6.67 - $9.7518.9%

Business

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, Restaurants industry, per the company profile. Specific product lines, customer base, and revenue mechanics are not itemized in the source data. Gross margin is reported at 96% per the market data, operating margin at 7.8%, and net margin at 4.5%.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$4678.3M$364.4M$212.1MN/A$15.0M$373.4M$1125.9M
FY 2024$4470.2M$324.5M$148.8MN/A$-60.8M$135.1M$716.0M
FY 2023$4331.9M$314.0M$181.3MN/A$382.0MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $4331.9M (FY 2023) to $4678.3M (FY 2025), and operating income rose from $314.0M to $364.4M over the same span. Net income was $212.1M in FY 2025 versus $148.8M in FY 2024. Free cash flow was $15.0M in FY 2025, following $-60.8M in FY 2024. Per the RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.1, the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, and Debt/Equity is 1.46; debt reported in the financials rose to $1125.9M in FY 2025 from $716.0M in FY 2024.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, six items reference ARCO. One is tagged GREEN / CATALYST: a Yahoo Finance item headlined "Arcos Dorados (ARCO) Surges 13.9%: Is This an Indication of Further Gains?" The remaining five are tagged YELLOW / MARKET WIRE and include a Motley Fool item, "Why Arcos Dorados Stock Got Socked Today," which points to a same-period negative price reaction. The feed gives headlines and summaries only; the underlying causes of the moves are not stated. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no proprietary signals or supply-chain links are recorded for ARCO.

Analyst View & Smart Money Ownership

Analyst consensus, price targets, and holder data are not available in source data.

Open Questions

  • What drove the 13.9% surge and the subsequent negative move reported in the news feed, and is either tied to a fundamental change?
  • What explains the gap between FY 2025 net income ($212.1M) and the very low FCF ($15.0M), and how much of the operating income converts to cash?
  • What are the composition and trend of the $1125.9M in FY 2025 debt, and what is the debt maturity profile?
  • What is the basis for the weak 13F/institutional flow score, and which holders drive it?
  • Why is EPS unreported (N/A) across all three periods despite a reported EPS (TTM) of 1.01?

ARCO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ARCO Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ARCO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $6.73?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ARCO 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ARCO:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $7.45 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ARCO (D • RQD 48/100) a Buy at $6.90?

Welcome to the ARCO (Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A)) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 48/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Restaurants. Bulls point to capital efficiency (18.9% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $5.31 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $6.90

Pump the brakes on ARCO — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ARCO, but look at what you are paying: 6.9x trailing P/E with 96.0% gross margins. Unless Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MA MacroHawk_NYC Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $8.00 (+15.9%)
Spot @ $6.90

ARCO cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ARCO, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Restaurants and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $6.90 (52-wk range $6.67 - $9.75), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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